China No Longer the World's Most Populous Country

[CEOCambodiaNews]

India overtakes China to become world’s most populous country
Milestone marks the first time since 1950 that China has dropped to second place in global population ranks
Hannah Ellis-Petersen South Asia correspondent
Mon 24 Apr 2023 17.00 BST
India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country, according to UN population estimates, the most significant shift in global demographics since records began.

According to the UN’s projections, which are calculated through a variety of factors including census data and birth and death rates, India now has a population of 1,425,775,850, surpassing China for the first time.

It is also the first time since 1950, when the UN first began keeping global population records, that China has been knocked off the top spot.

China’s population decline follows decades of strict laws to bring the country’s booming birthrate under control, including the introduction of a one-child policy in the 1980s. This included fines for having extra children, forced abortions and sterilisations. While initially highly effective in controlling the population, these policies became a victim of their own success, and the country is now grappling with an ageing population in steep decline, which could have severe economic implications.

Part of the problem is that because of a traditional preference for boys, the one-child policy led to a massive gender imbalance. Men now outnumber women by about 32 million. “How can the country now shore up birth rates, with millions of missing women?” asks Mei Fong, the author of One Child, a book about the impact of the policy.

Recent policies introduced in China trying to incentivise women to have more children have done little to stimulate population growth. Women still have only 1.2 children and the population is expected to fall by almost 10% in the next two decades. According to projections, the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century.

In India, the population has grown by more than a billion since 1950. Though growth has now slowed, the number of people in the country is still expected to continue to rise for the next few decades, hitting its peak of 1.7 billion by 2064. Today on average 86,000 babies are born a day in India compared with just 49,400 in China.

Poonam Muttreja, executive director of Population Foundation of India, said that while some were concerned at the implications of being the world’s most populous country, she said that India’s population growth was no longer facing the “explosion” many had feared.

“Earlier projections said we would overtake China in 2027 so it’s happened four years faster, mostly because of our young population,” said Muttreja. “But at the same time, we have also reduced our population growth and reached population stabilisation faster than we had imagined and it will continue to slow down as long as we stay on the right track. So I don’t think there’s any need for alarm.”

The exact size of India’s population is still not known, due to a delay in the government carrying out the census, which usually takes place every decade. It was due in 2021, but was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the government, led by prime minister Narendra Modi, has yet to announce the date it will commence.

Some have accused the Modi government of obstructing the census process in order to disguise data that could be politically disadvantageous. However, the government say the delay is due to an ongoing effort to incorporate technology into the process.

The announcement by the UN is likely to increase pressure on the Indian government to carry out the survey. According to predictions the population has grown by almost 200 million – greater than the population of Brazil – since the last census in 2011 and experts say the lack of vital data is hindering policymaking and welfare programmes.

India’s demography is far from uniform across the country. One third of predicted population growth over the next decade will come from just two states, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, in the north of the country, which are some of India’s poorest and most agricultural states. Uttar Pradesh alone already has a population of about 235 million, bigger than Nigeria or Brazil.
Full article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... us-country

[CEOCambodiaNews]

Most populous nation: Should India rejoice or panic?
Published 6 days ago
By Soutik Biswas
India correspondent BBC

India's population has reached 1,425,775,850 people, surpassing the number of people in mainland China, according to the UN's estimates.

India's decennial census - scheduled to be held in 2021 - has been delayed, so there's no official population data. China's most recent - and seventh census - was conducted in 2020.

To estimate and project populations of both India and China, the UN relies on information about levels and trends in fertility, mortality and migration acquired from records, surveys and administrative data.

What is clear is that both India and China have more than 1.4 billion people each, and for over 70 years have accounted for more than a third of the global population.

A population crisis in the world's most populated country

China's population is likely to begin shrinking next year. Last year, 10.6 million people were born, a little more than the number of deaths, thanks to a rapid drop in fertility rate. According to the UN, the Chinese population will continue to fall and could drop to below a billion before the end of the century.

India's fertility rate has also fallen substantially in recent decades - from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to two births per woman today - but the rate of decline has been slower. India's population is virtually certain to continue to grow for several decades - the UN expects the population to peak around 2064, and then decline gradually.
In full: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-65322706