Economic Impact of Cambodian worker purge/return

[OrangeDragon]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/124010/ec ... t-workers/

While initial reports pushed on the Thai side that Cambodians were returning was rather comical – a couple hundred a day were returning while ignoring a couple thousand a day were still leaving – with Cambodia lowering passport costs and new processing centres on the Thai side, there are at least more recent reports that as of July that around 1,000 Cambodians a day are now returning to Thailand. To put in this perspective though, and assuming simply for this exercise that no further Cambodians were to leave, at 1,000 a day it would take 250 days for all the Cambodian workers who left to return. That is a long time.

[Cowshed Cowboy]

http://asiancorrespondent.com/124010/ec ... t-workers/

While initial reports pushed on the Thai side that Cambodians were returning was rather comical – a couple hundred a day were returning while ignoring a couple thousand a day were still leaving – with Cambodia lowering passport costs and new processing centres on the Thai side, there are at least more recent reports that as of July that around 1,000 Cambodians a day are now returning to Thailand. To put in this perspective though, and assuming simply for this exercise that no further Cambodians were to leave, at 1,000 a day it would take 250 days for all the Cambodian workers who left to return. That is a long time.

I wouldn't argue that that's a very simple assumption, but it's nice to know that " Bangkok Pundit " whoever he is can calculate his 1,000 times table. Could be wrong of course and all those vacant jobs in Cambodia highlighted by the super efficient and caring Cambodian government have absorbed these poor guys into the local labour force.

[OrangeDragon]

But how long does it take to process those new passports? What's the maximum number they can do in a day? If these workers have to get legal, that's a bottleneck in the system of getting them back.

[Cowshed Cowboy]

But how long does it take to process those new passports? What's the maximum number they can do in a day? If these workers have to get legal, that's a bottleneck in the system of getting them back.

Yes agreed, I reckon how quickly it will progress will be dependant on how quickly they identify and respond to an increased demand bottleneck when it happens, maybe it's already happening. If there is a need and desire they could easily throw additional manpower resources to it or am I being overly optimistic of Cambodian bureaucractic responsiveness. I realise logic often goes out the window with the respective 2 govt's but it's hardly in Cambodia's interest to not pull out the stops on this one. They'd better hurry up or they might find it's first come first served with those from Myanmar.

[OrangeDragon]

If there is a need and desire they could easily throw additional manpower resources to it or am I being overly optimistic of Cambodian bureaucratic responsiveness.

Above some superficial goodwill for even trying, which they've already done with the system they've put in place now, what's in it for them? That's how one should approach any action expected of the CPP while they're in power in my opinion. They don't really benefit from it working out fast, nor do they suffer from it working out slow... so why spend more money on it? They made passports cheap and set up an office for it (though they're nearly impossible to get because of the complex paperwork you have to have for it from your village/etc) so they could make the superficial announcement that they're working hard to resolve it... they even gave up their political prisoner in exchange for a few migrant workers.

Now they're most likely done barring a few press releases blaming the people for not already having the paperwork/etc that the village bureaucrats don't want to give them without hefty bribes using the logic that if you're going to work in Thailand you can afford it (so you should take out a loan to pay it then send the money back to your family to pay off when you're working). All the while saying that the reports of people asking for bribes are just made up rumors trying to damage HE and the government.

[Cowshed Cowboy]

In which case given the much larger contingent of legal Myanmar workers already in the Thai economy it's not outside the realms of possibility they'll absorb any slack from back home. I suppose the Cambodian opposition will benefit from more disaffected residents, a bit more civil strife maybe.

[Barang_doa_slae]

Wouldn't Myanmar workers be looking for better jobs than Cambodians ?
Cambodians if I understand correctly are mainly employed in unskilled positions in construction, fishing and a few in tourism industries (Koh Chang at least). Many of the jobs offered to the Cambodians illegals immigrants are a modern form of slavery.
I can recall a lot of alike reports concerning Burmese 20 years ago (especially in prostitution rings), I can't say I have seen many lately.

[Cowshed Cowboy]

Wouldn't Myanmar workers be looking for better jobs than Cambodians ?
Cambodians if I understand correctly are mainly employed in unskilled positions in construction, fishing and a few in tourism industries (Koh Chang at least). Many of the jobs offered to the Cambodians illegals immigrants are a modern form of slavery.
I can recall a lot of alike reports concerning Burmese 20 years ago (especially in prostitution rings), I can't say I have seen many lately.

I think the Burmese are pretty much in the same boat as Cambodians to be honest. Certainly in our area for example I read local news stories of fights at construction camps between workers and they can be either Burmese or Cambodians, the same with round up of illegals in shit conditions. Phuket Richard may confirm this but there was a big fire that gutted a cheap megastore/warehouse in Phuket some months ago and a large number, a couple of hundred from memory, were working there, I don't think the conditions were great.

[frank lee bent]

i think the burmese workers are also under the gun now.

this is just selective enforcement against the enemies of the regime.

like the whole visa crackdown, the monetary flow on may be more severe than what they think.

[phuketrichard]

Wouldn't Myanmar workers be looking for better jobs than Cambodians ?
Cambodians if I understand correctly are mainly employed in unskilled positions in construction, fishing and a few in tourism industries (Koh Chang at least). Many of the jobs offered to the Cambodians illegals immigrants are a modern form of slavery.
I can recall a lot of alike reports concerning Burmese 20 years ago (especially in prostitution rings), I can't say I have seen many lately.

I think the Burmese are pretty much in the same boat as Cambodians to be honest. Certainly in our area for example I read local news stories of fights at construction camps between workers and they can be either Burmese or Cambodians, the same with round up of illegals in shit conditions. Phuket Richard may confirm this but there was a big fire that gutted a cheap megastore/warehouse in Phuket some months ago and a large number, a couple of hundred from memory, were working there, I don't think the conditions were great.

That was the super cheap store back in Oct
ONLY thais worked there



I have 2 Burmese camps with in 200 meters from my house, there not worried at all, see them walking past my house to work 6 days a week