Cambodia Expats Online: Forum | News | Information | Blog

Got some data over the past few days and so i was able to calculate the percentage of infected present in the red zones based on the number of people tested.
Now they are testing quite widely so this isn't from specific contact tracing.
The number of positives are between 5% and 8% amongst the batches tested.
Test samples of a couple of thousand individuals/days.
However the % might be corrected by -1% due to the fact that more testing is done on people known to be close to clusters (even within the red zones there are "redder" zones) than on just everyone else.
Still can't figure out the percentage of people vaccinated but it's growing rapidly.
This is not too bad of a number considering that it is a red zone.

They say there are 520,000 people in red zones. That’s the number they estimate they need to vaccinate.
So are you saying you think there are 26,000-41,000 infected people in there?
It seems a lot.
My guess is that because the testing is targeted at close and casual contacts of infected people, the percentage of positive tests is much higher than the percentage infected in the whole red zone population, so it’s not really possible to extrapolate like that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Does it seem like things are starting to improve now after the latest spike in cases, or still sliding in the wrong direction?

How about we get some more data up in this thread and then we put some more critical thinking into this? Thank you Jack R. but where does this study even come from ? I concur with J. Steu that, once you run numbers on the quoted study numbers,it seems unlikely. My own thoughts and feelings and how things seem in regard to Covid infection rates are not helpful or relevant, can we see some source for the quoted study here and/or get some more data?

As others have said it's nearly impossible not extrapolate a realistic figure from the info we have.

I would have guessed higher than 8% in red zones based on the testing figures (7000 capacity less people arriving and leaving etc takes it to 5000 / 500-900 a day) would take you to over 10% positive a day.

Over a third will have no symptoms so won't be tested (they went back on their target to test all in red zone when realised how many that was and switched back to only showing symptoms)

But none of these calculations can be relied upon as there is no data

It was reported and published already that the positive rate in the red zones are slightly above 10%

Studies of the rapid 15min tests underlined it will detect only 58% of early positive cases not yet symptomatic. One third are not flagged.

This gives us a possible 15% positivity rate in the red zones.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Nicolas wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:36 am It was reported and published already that the positive rate in the red zones are slightly above 10%

Studies of the rapid 15min tests underlined it will detect only 58% of early positive cases not yet symptomatic. One third are not flagged.

This gives us a possible 15% positivity rate in the red zones.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, about 75,000, and climbing. A far cry from their numbers. If Cambodia had a testing capacity of 70,000 a day we would get a big shock at the real numbers.

Yes, more testing = more cases. What really matters is the percentage positivity rate. How many positive every 100 samples.
And the number of tests by 100.000 citizens.


Below for example US states.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/p ... ly-14.html


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Doc67 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:50 am

Nicolas wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:36 am It was reported and published already that the positive rate in the red zones are slightly above 10%

Studies of the rapid 15min tests underlined it will detect only 58% of early positive cases not yet symptomatic. One third are not flagged.

This gives us a possible 15% positivity rate in the red zones.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

So, about 75,000, and climbing. A far cry from their numbers. If Cambodia had a testing capacity of 70,000 a day we would get a big shock at the real numbers.

All the more reason* to end the lockdown and let people go about their business, including inter-provincial travel.


*reason = related to competent authorities.

I don’t understand many decisions taken by the gouvernement, but we are lucky Cambodia is playing the vaccination card full speed.
We are ahead most (all?) SEAsia countries and a local Phnom Penh/Kandal herd immunity is likely reachable within three months.

It’s the only way out of our misery.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk