Cambodia Expats Online: Forum | News | Information | Blog

Perhaps it’s just the pessimist in me.....but I am shocked at everyone’s optimism and how many people around the world think that this is a 1 or 2 month ordeal. I’m not expecting the zombie apocalypse, but an unprecedented worldwide depression could be on its way.

From both Khmer and expat friends I am not seeing any posts that really reflect the gravity of the situation economically and I think people are in shock and in denial.

Gov newspapers like Khmer times keep posting articles like: “Travel goods exports double.”

Cambodia’s economy is based on agriculture, tourism, and garment exports.

Tourism is finished for this year. It will be fascinating to see how much garment exports decrease. With all schools closed, all major events closed, who will really be buying many clothes in the coming months.

What is your take on the economic repercussions in Cambodia for the next couple years?

I've posted it a few times in different threads but as far as I can see we are headed for a serious depression.

And their answer will be to deny, deny, deny. No-one's going to admit it, much better to blame some-one else and give answers to a question that wasn't asked, or say we are looking for more evidence into this.

Johno35 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:35 am Perhaps it’s just the pessimist in me.....but I am shocked at everyone’s optimism and how many people around the world think that this is a 1 or 2 month ordeal. I’m not expecting the zombie apocalypse, but an unprecedented worldwide depression could be on its way.

From both Khmer and expat friends I am not seeing any posts that really reflect the gravity of the situation economically and I think people are in shock and in denial.

Gov newspapers like Khmer times keep posting articles like: “Travel goods exports double.”

Cambodia’s economy is based on agriculture, tourism, and garment exports.

Tourism is finished for this year. It will be fascinating to see how much garment exports decrease. With all schools closed, all major events closed, who will really be buying many clothes in the coming months.

What is your take on the economic repercussions in Cambodia for the next couple years?

John Bingham wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:01 am I've posted it a few times in different threads but as far as I can see we are headed for a serious depression.

I would too agree, this on-going too alongside the problem of the now pandemic virus.

The 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic sure screwed things up. It went almost 3 full years. With 100+ years of medical innovation behind us, my expert opinion is it will not kill as many. But yeah this will wreck the world economy for a while.

I also dont see any positive development. As usual it will hit the poor the hardest, the ones with a few days savings only. With every closure of any kind people will lose income and as more closure are to be foreseen (dont need to be a fortuneteller to see this coming) it will affect more and more people that wont be able to afford anything but food (read rice and a little vegs). Cambodians are know to survive the harshest conditions, especially the elder generations do remember them. 20 years ago a friend of mine told me the khmer woman was the best one in the world. If the world would collapse his wife would still be able to go to the forest and come back with something to eat. Well the forests have partially gone and I am not sure if this is still valid for the younger generation of people.

Talking with my Expat friends and Cambodians I`ve known for years they only start realizing the full extent of a possible economic desaster. Some are in denial, some have noticed the problems, others have stocked up some goods but none of them is panicking. When it comes to Cambodians (talking about the ones I know not generalizing) I never felt they had any long term vision at all. Sometimes I even tought they were right about living the life not carring about tomorrow. The ones who already lost their jobs have gone back to their village/family where at least some food is guaranteed and wait for better times to come again-

My Khmer wife buys chicken feet, chicken wing TIPS, snakehead, fish heads and thinks she is on cloud 9..
I never watched someone eat rice 1 grain at a time slowly until I met her...She takes dresses she buys cheap and changes them into beautiful outfits.
She hand washes all laundry...cleans house like a pro.
I have slept many nights in Kampong Cham in her father's old tiny house where she grew up.
There are people all over the World who tighten their belts and get through tragedy every day.
The economy is wrecked and will come back.
You cannot just turn everything off for months and expect a smooth restart...it will take time.
I think the World will learn lessons.
It is very interesting that every country in the World is closing its borders.... something Trump has been called a racist and piece of shit for advocating the past 4+ years....
And he only wanted to stop illegal entries...not folks on vacation and business with passports, funds, visas, and tourist dollars to spend...
I said earlier, I did a recon of Siem Reap at 8:30pm last night and Khmer places were open...customers eating....My buddy chose to stay open ...but, business sucked as it has sucked for quite a while.
I live on the airport side of town and it is mellow and peaceful.
I think people fleeing to the Provinces could spread the virus to the elderly that live out away from PP.
The chinese kept saying when it warmed up in china they would be fine..
It has been 33-35C here in Siem Reap..
The clothes are exported ....not bought by Khmers..for the most part...
Italy..France..USA...UK..etc...yikes..
The summer clothes for the west need to be in stores soon...
There will be some tough times ahead..
But, The World will come back and prosper...

many markets seem to be all but closed

i suppose with many fewer customers, stalls just close up
it's a vicious circle though, and could cause problems

I can see this getting very bad in the KoW. Tourism will be nonexistent for quite a while. There’s no point to argue whether it’s months or years, even now after just a couple of weeks businesses and families are already reeling.
I don’t aggree that Cambodians in general are able to cope with such hardship. The majority of people currently keeping the wheels in motion are in their mid-twenties and have grown accustomed to stable economic growth (10-15 boom years) and fairly stable incomes. Hundred thousands of them (tourism and catering industry, garment industry quickly to follow) have or shortly will be suddenly find themselves with zero income. Microfinance will fall, then banks, then governments. Blood on the streets.

This is about to be the worst recession in anyone's lifetime. I mean 1929 level or worse. I'm finding it hard to predict how that will affect Cambodia but I expect it will be really quite negative.

It could be managed ok or it could be really fucking bad. We will soon see.