Coronavirus: Who has contacts in hospitals, MOH or other entities?

[Jack.R.]

I currently follow up the situation quite well in a couple of provincial hospitals but in the cities everyone is either not knowing or tight lipped.

I think we should try to pool together our resources to keep ourselves updated on when this virus will explode here, because it's not if in my opinion it's just when it will be too hard to hide.

Now the big guy went all in in the "stand with China" gambit which could have paid off if this all fizzled out fast. Now it's seems every day less likely to be contained with thousands of cases outside Hubei.
Flights still coming here and no quarantine.
The likelihood that we have only 1 case is nearing 0.
The issue is when will it get public? And if it does it might go public as the hospitals will begin to get overwhelmed.

The important point is to keep clearly updated in case the government goes public with too many cases and flights might get stopped to USA or some other countries.

So this is an open call to follow the following red flags:

Obviously anyone that has contacts in MOH or hospitals it's the best source of information.

Also it's good to see what very rich Khmer people are doing, if shit gets real they will fly out or at least send their kids out.

I will keep up info for the provinces around Kampong Cham and try to get as much info as I can from Phnom Penh. My contacts at MOH seem very tight lipped with the only thing that I know is that they are getting lots of phone calls from worried people.

Testing seemed to rely on China before now they have ordered a new testing machine which I am not sure when will it be working.

I think everyone that isn't in perfect health (yet even the non smoking doctor 34yo died yesterday) should be ready to leave as a precaution.

Looking at the map it's seems very unlikely that all countries that are Chinese stooges have essentially no cases even with open borders.
Pakistan, Cambodia, Laos.

So this is just to create a rapid stream of updates and rumors:

Please tag post as: rumors / highly likely and sure.
Also please describe sources.

Thanks

[xandreu]

I might be burying my head in the sand, but when you look beyond the headline grabbing news stories and check to see what the actual experts are saying, most of them are saying that this is no worse than common flu. Common flu which kills tens of thousands around the world every year anyway, but we don't hear about that.

When they say the death toll has risen to [insert number here], they never seem to compare it to common flu. If they did, you'll see that the death toll is on par with common flu and it wouldn't make such a good old fashioned scare mongering rolling news story.

I accept that at some point I may get it, but I'm reasonably healthy, not too old and have never had problems with my immune system. I'm not the target audience for this virus.

So with that in mind, it's business as usual for me. As it should be for most of us.

[Jack.R.]

No serious Expert is saying it is just like a common flu.
Only some generic people on TV, any epidemiologist is comparing it to the Spanish flu of 1918 (which was also a coronavirus) that killed between 50 to 100 million people in 2 years.

I have been repeating myself over and over about anyone reading even the basic, low end, Chinese data can see it's not your usual flu.
You don't quarantine hundreds of millions for "just a flu".

One again the numbers speak for themselves:

Common flu:
Mortality: 0,1%
Intensive care needed: 1%
Infectivity R0: 1.2
Average time in intensive care: 7 days

Novel coronavirus:
Mortality: 2-3% (with intensive care available) 5-7% (without intensive care available)
Intensive care needed: 20% to 25% (!!!)
Infectivity R0: 2.3 to 4.5 (!!!)
Average time in intensive care: 15+ days (possibly more)

Let this thing loose worldwide and it has the mathematical probably to kill as much as ww1+ww2 combined and possibly much much more in a year or 2.

This assuming that it doesn't mutate as gets worse soon as any new infected brings a chance of mutations and we know already this category or viruses are highly likely to mutate.

Please read on Wikipedia about the Spanish flu.

Anyone that knows high school math can understand how bad this is.

The only way this is just a very infective flu is if China is underreporting infection cases by a factor of 20.

[fsdfdsdf]

the one reported case was travelling with 2 friends that also had it. dont know about the others on the plane that were supposedly found and tested. I have no idea how dangerous it is but I guess it must be slightly dangerous as there does seem to be a bit of a cover up going on

[SternAAlbifrons]

China is turning the screws to stop countries banning flights to China.
Pakastan just surrendered and reversed their ban.
The Ch ambassador to Aust held a very (very) rare press conference and condemned US bans and next sentence noted Australia's overwhelming trade dependence on China - saying very diplomatically that it was an indication that "we are such good friends".

A very thin silk glove on that set of thug knuckles.

[ofparadise]

This report should shed some light on the haze surrounding the "wuhan" coronavirus.

https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/12/2/135/pdf

There are valid reasons to be concerned, but we are far from red alert scenes.

[cptrelentless]

Over 20000+ reported cases and only 600 dead. Meh. It only kills the weak.

[Yerg]

Mortality rate 2-3%. Yeah, I'd take those odds and not worry too much.

@SternAAlbifrons , Chinese Ambassador to UK also recently made a speech that UK was over-reacting to the virus

[SternAAlbifrons]

Not down-playing this at all, but for myself i tend to agree with you Yerg ^^
This one is not the Spanish flu scenario (nb, but neither is it the common flu)

The death rate is probably less than 1% - WHO expert this morning.
approx 1% (not 2-3) of known cases now - but they are realising that many more of the infected are not presenting for testing because the symptoms are so minor.

All the experts agree it is very serious nevertheless.

AND, this is all excellent prep for when the next 'Spanish' does emerge.
There is near total agreement by the experts that there is a very good chance of that happening before too long - and that it is most likely to emerge from east asia.
We gotta treat them all very seriously because when the real killer flu does arrive, we cannot afford to give it a head-start while we dither and dally.

[Cricket99]