The future of tourism in the coronavirus era: Asia may hold answers to what's ahead
Posted: Mon May 11, 2020 6:26 pm
Good read from CNN
highlights
The coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on travel, with the UN World Tourism Organization estimating that international tourism could decline by up to 80% this year over 2019, putting at least 100 million jobs at risk.
In Thailand, where tourism makes up 18% of the country's GDP, the Tourism Authority expects visitor numbers could be down 65% this year.
New Zealand and Australia have committed to creating a "travel bubble" allowing visits between the two countries -- once it's safe to do so. China has begun allowing domestic travel, although its borders are still shut to most foreigners. Thailand is considering special tourism resorts that double as quarantine zones.
But experts warn that even with new initiatives, it could take years for travel to rise to pre-Covid-19 levels. And even when it happens, we might never travel in the same way again.
Australia and New Zealand have committed to a travel corridor, which is not expected to come for a few months. In Europe, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have announced plans to open their internal borders for citizens of the three countries from May 15.
Vietnam and Thailand could look at creating a travel corridor over the next few months, according to Thailand-based Mario Hardy, chief executive of the nonprofit Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).
Aviation analyst Brendan Sobie expects to see similar arrangements within Europe and North America.
Surveys show that Chinese tourists are keen to stick with what they know and not travel too far, says Bill Barnett, the managing director of global hospitality consultancy C9 Hotelworks. That means Thailand, which attracts around 11 million Chinese tourists a year, could be one of the first to open up travel to China.
China may be less interested in opening up travel to places where there was anti-China sentiment during the outbreak -- places such as Australia, says Freya Higgins-Desbiolles, a senior lecturer at the University of South Australia who researches tourism.
"I think tourism is going to be damaged by the geopolitical games or strategies that had been played out to take advantage of the crisis," she says.
Another suggestion is that passengers carry immunity passports, which signify if they are immune to coronavirus. China has already rolled out a form of that -- all citizens have a QR code that changes color depending on their health status. They need to show it to get into restaurants and shopping malls.
But again, there are issues that need to be worked out.
The immunity passports rely on the idea that people who have recovered from Covid-19 can't be reinfected. But for now, there's no evidence that they have antibodies that protect them from a second infection, according to the World Health Organization.
Even if they have developed immunity, it's not clear how long that would last. Also, we don't yet have widespread antibody testing, which would be necessary for this to work.
The immunity passports could also be used to indicate whether a person has been vaccinated against coronavirus -- but it could be 18 months or more before there's a vaccine on the market, and even longer before there are mass vaccinations around the world.
"My understanding is you can't expect international travel to go back to what it was before, really until we have a vaccine," says Higgins-Desbiolles.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... suKHM9ujPA
One thing they mention which is spot on
we wont be traveling the way we used to for a long time, if ever again
highlights
The coronavirus pandemic has had a devastating impact on travel, with the UN World Tourism Organization estimating that international tourism could decline by up to 80% this year over 2019, putting at least 100 million jobs at risk.
In Thailand, where tourism makes up 18% of the country's GDP, the Tourism Authority expects visitor numbers could be down 65% this year.
New Zealand and Australia have committed to creating a "travel bubble" allowing visits between the two countries -- once it's safe to do so. China has begun allowing domestic travel, although its borders are still shut to most foreigners. Thailand is considering special tourism resorts that double as quarantine zones.
But experts warn that even with new initiatives, it could take years for travel to rise to pre-Covid-19 levels. And even when it happens, we might never travel in the same way again.
Australia and New Zealand have committed to a travel corridor, which is not expected to come for a few months. In Europe, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have announced plans to open their internal borders for citizens of the three countries from May 15.
Vietnam and Thailand could look at creating a travel corridor over the next few months, according to Thailand-based Mario Hardy, chief executive of the nonprofit Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).
Aviation analyst Brendan Sobie expects to see similar arrangements within Europe and North America.
Surveys show that Chinese tourists are keen to stick with what they know and not travel too far, says Bill Barnett, the managing director of global hospitality consultancy C9 Hotelworks. That means Thailand, which attracts around 11 million Chinese tourists a year, could be one of the first to open up travel to China.
China may be less interested in opening up travel to places where there was anti-China sentiment during the outbreak -- places such as Australia, says Freya Higgins-Desbiolles, a senior lecturer at the University of South Australia who researches tourism.
"I think tourism is going to be damaged by the geopolitical games or strategies that had been played out to take advantage of the crisis," she says.
Another suggestion is that passengers carry immunity passports, which signify if they are immune to coronavirus. China has already rolled out a form of that -- all citizens have a QR code that changes color depending on their health status. They need to show it to get into restaurants and shopping malls.
But again, there are issues that need to be worked out.
The immunity passports rely on the idea that people who have recovered from Covid-19 can't be reinfected. But for now, there's no evidence that they have antibodies that protect them from a second infection, according to the World Health Organization.
Even if they have developed immunity, it's not clear how long that would last. Also, we don't yet have widespread antibody testing, which would be necessary for this to work.
The immunity passports could also be used to indicate whether a person has been vaccinated against coronavirus -- but it could be 18 months or more before there's a vaccine on the market, and even longer before there are mass vaccinations around the world.
"My understanding is you can't expect international travel to go back to what it was before, really until we have a vaccine," says Higgins-Desbiolles.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/ ... suKHM9ujPA
One thing they mention which is spot on
we wont be traveling the way we used to for a long time, if ever again
