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Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:08 pm
by Clutch Cargo
Now conventional wisdom will tell you that this can't happen until Trump is re-elected in 2020 right?
Well, in the last few days, I've started to wonder..
Seems to me everyone is in a race to devalue their currency and get to negative interest rates. Overpriced stocks and property and high debt levels. Will the stretched rubber band break?
China has taken a big hit on the share market with not only the trade wars but now Hong Kong and the risk of escalation there. A trade agreement seems increasingly unlikely.
The UK pound and share market are taking a dive coz of Brexit et al.
Germany has slipped into recession.
Italy and its loans are back again.
Japan is stuck in a rut and having its own trade war with Sth Korea.
Emerging countries like Argentina are back in the news.
With low bond/fixed interest yields, retirees are being forced to increasingly go up the risk scale to get income and fund their retirement.
Gold is up big time coz people are scared and treasuries such as Russia, China and Turkey are buying up big to provide a safe haven.
Not to mention the risk of confrontation with Iran and oil supplies.
It's not looking good.
Time to bunker down?
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:30 pm
by Anthony's Weiner
Donald Trump claimed on the campaign trail that, as president, he would completely eliminate the then–$19 trillion in national debt. Since he made that promise in early 2016, the debt has ballooned to $22 trillion, and his tax cuts are expected to drive that number higher. This increase in debt came at a time of low unemployment and wage gains. Trade wars with all of his trading partners, personal debt reaching all-time records and low interest rates have discouraged savings. If the question is " Are we about to enter a global recession?"
The answer has to be most surely
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:35 pm
by Duncan
clutchcargo wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Now conventional wisdom will tell you that this can't happen until Trump is re-elected in 2020 right?
Well, in the last few days, I've started to wonder..
Seems to me everyone is in a race to devalue their currency and get to negative interest rates. Overpriced stocks and property and high debt levels. Will the stretched rubber band break?
China has taken a big hit on the share market with not only the trade wars but now Hong Kong and the risk of escalation there. A trade agreement seems increasingly unlikely.
The UK pound and share market are taking a dive coz of Brexit et al.
Germany has slipped into recession.
Italy and its loans are back again.
Japan is stuck in a rut and having its own trade war with Sth Korea.
Emerging countries like Argentina are back in the news.
With low bond/fixed interest yields, retirees are being forced to increasingly go up the risk scale to get income and fund their retirement.
Gold is up big time coz people are scared and treasuries such as Russia, China and Turkey are buying up big to provide a safe haven.
Not to mention the risk of confrontation with Iran and oil supplies.
It's not looking good.
Time to bunker down?
And the OZ dollar has been renamed The South Pacific Peso.
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:38 pm
by cptrelentless
The GBP is dropping purely from currency speculation. The UK economy has not shrunk. The RMB is not traded internationally and the Chinese government has no requirement for elections so they can gas everyone in Hong Kong with impunity and suddenly invent new money. Italy is too big to go bust, it's the fifth or sixth largest economy in the world, ok eighth, I see the Frogs have squeezed in there. The US just needs to raise interest rates, the value of the dollar will drop and voila! Instant shrinkage of the debt.
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:52 pm
by hanno
cptrelentless wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:38 pm
The GBP is dropping purely from currency speculation. The UK economy has not shrunk.
Yes, it has. For the first time in 6 years. OK, only 0.2% but still. And the outlook for the 4th-largest economy is not rosy either.
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:05 am
by Clutch Cargo
So the news today is that Trump has delayed the extra China tariffs that were supposed to start next month.
Said something along the lines he doesn't want to spoil Christmas...but the editorials are saying he's lost face with the Chinese and the proposed increase was gonna hurt his constituents in the US. So much for trade wars being easy to win..
Anyway, that sent the share market up and back on a roller coaster ride..
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:11 am
by Isaanbarang
Insider trading season is year round.
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 3:49 pm
by LaudJohn
cptrelentless wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2019 4:38 pm
The US just needs to raise interest rates, the value of the dollar will drop and voila! Instant shrinkage of the debt.
Please explain?
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:45 am
by offroadscholar
clutchcargo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:05 am
So the news today is that Trump has delayed the extra China tariffs that were supposed to start next month.
Said something along the lines he doesn't want to spoil Christmas...but the editorials are saying he's lost face with the Chinese and the proposed increase was gonna hurt his constituents in the US. So much for trade wars being easy to win..
Anyway, that sent the share market up and back on a roller coaster ride..
Trump blinked, markets blipped up momentarily, and are now tanking. Looking fwd to his next tweet.
Re: Can the GFC Mk II wait for Donald Trump?
Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 7:02 am
by frank lee bent
800 points crash on the djia and inverted yield for bonds
historic indicator for recession
tomorrow probably worse