Is there too much optimism in the Cambodian economy?

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xandreu
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Is there too much optimism in the Cambodian economy?

Post by xandreu »

Those of us that live in PP are all too familiar with the sight of partly built, abandoned high-rise apartment buildings. Within a ten minute walk of where I live, there are two. There are another two that have been completed and are open, but it is clear that barely anyone lives in them. We're talking 40-odd story middle-class style apartments.

As a result of these buildings springing up, other businesses opened up in the area, such as restaurants, bars and other entertainment venues, clearly aimed at the type of people who would rent one of these types of apartments, but it's rare to see customers in them. Maybe on a good weekend, you might see a dozen or so people in them, which is very low considering they have a capacity of 150 - 200 odd people.

I live opposite one of these types of bars which has recently closed down - gone bankrupt I assume. (Very rare to see anyone in there, it's right outside my window). They're in the middle of demolishing it at the moment. Funnily enough, just around the corner, they're building a new wine bar on some previously disused land. Have the new owners not bothered to do any market research on the area? Have they not even bothered to have a quick drive around to see how well similar bars in the area seem to be doing?

When I travel around Phnom Penh, I'm often amazed at how some businesses remain open, from supermarkets to coffee shops, to restaurants to bars etc. There just never seem to be enough customers in them for them to possibly be making a profit. As a result, there is a disproportionate number of businesses that close down and either quickly get replaced by other businesses, or remain boarded up. Sometimes the buildings get torn down and people just put up a 'Land for sale" sign. Is it easier to sell empty land than land with a property already built on it?

I get the feeling there is for too much optimism in the Cambodian economy by investors, either foreign or domestic. I understand that the middle-classes are rising in Cambodia, and the standard of living is improving for many, but no-where near at the rate some investors seem to think. Plus, even as the middle class grow, you are still dealing with a society which, at it's roots, still largely doesn't understand why anyone would pay extortionate prices for things they can get at the market for a fraction of the price. Spending the least amount of money you can is a type of thinking is ingrained in Cambodian society and will take a generation or two to change.

I know that the reasons for businesses failing, especially high-rise buildings being abandoned are much more complicated than the simplified reasons I've laid out here, but I do think that a large part of it is just that nobody ever seems to do any due diligence before opening businesses, and the notion of a burgeoning Cambodian middle-class seems to be incredibly overblown.
The difference between animals and humans is that animals would never allow the dumb ones to lead the pack.
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YaTingPom
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Re: Is there too much optimism in the Cambodian economy?

Post by YaTingPom »

I don't think it optimism but naivety and poor planning.

In the good times any douche could open a business and make money and be "successful". The same happens in Kampot with the bars hotels and restaurants. Non of these people do market research (because they have no idea) or any business acumen, or basic understanding of cashflow. The only difference between the two is the amount of cash that gets injected - Phnom Penh, re-modeled buildings, expensive furniture. Kampot - $20 of paint and some wicker furniture.

If any of these people had any smarts they would run a mile.

With any small business you need four heads; money person (who can do cashflows and projections etc), marketing guy, front of house person (the main reason people return), and a chef/cook. If a small business has not got a person who can do all of those things, or at least two of them, they will struggle.
If they rely on business partners it will fail.
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Doc67
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Re: Is there too much optimism in the Cambodian economy?

Post by Doc67 »

The amount of new small businesses on my street in the last 6 years is astonishing. 80% have failed and the current crop looks likely to continue that trend. Small ground floor units that were previously of residential use have been converted to commercial use (no permission seems to be required).

Some shops have had more than 3 different businesses in them in 3 years - a coffee shop to a nail bar to a clothes shop and now back to a coffee shop, all in under 3 years and all undergoing a substantial refit. I have lost count of the total number of failed ventures in my small street, but it's well over 20; I have lost count to be honest.

Shopfitting must be a good business :chin:
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YaTingPom
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Re: Is there too much optimism in the Cambodian economy?

Post by YaTingPom »

I wonder what the % is of these business's that are either; daddies money or barangs money, and daughter/son/girlfriend wants to run a business purely for the fact she can boast to her friends.

In Kampot I see a few new bars open up every month. Then they do a soft opening and use those pictures every time they promote their bar. Shit, even a well known coffee place their uses a picture from at least three years ago as a guy in it died in 2019!

I know a few bar owners in Kampot and PP. They either do it as they have no choice and do not have any backup money or pension or have a few quid and are doing it as a "bit of fun". The latter will burn them out, seen that multiple times in the past. They usually last about 12 months or less.

Non of these bars pay tax and get moaned at when they put the beers up to $1.25!
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