DPP won the presidential election but lost the legislative majority. The president may be more independence minded than his predecessor, but won’t be able to pass legislation.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politi ... egislative

DPP won 51 seats. The opposition KMT won 52 seats and the other opposition TPP won 8 seats.

I predict political gridlock.

Or maybe Xi goes off the rails and decides invasion a lot sooner. He has threatened it if the DPP wins. The Chinese military isn’t ready but irrelevant.

Of course the US Secretary of Defense is in the ICU and won’t be able to coordinate things if it happens.

newkidontheblock wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 11:58 am DPP won the presidential election but lost the legislative majority. The president may be more independence minded than his predecessor, but won’t be able to pass legislation.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politi ... egislative

DPP won 51 seats. The opposition KMT won 52 seats and the other opposition TPP won 8 seats.

I predict political gridlock.

Or maybe Xi goes off the rails and decides invasion a lot sooner. He has threatened it if the DPP wins. The Chinese military isn’t ready but irrelevant.

Of course the US Secretary of Defense is in the ICU and won’t be able to coordinate things if it happens.

One wonders what would an invasion would look like. Perhaps a drone war prelude before any boots on the ground? Or will the emperor prefer a full-scale blitzkrieg?
Taiwanians have had time to see it coming, so I wonder to what extent traps for the invaders have already been set.

The DPP lost control of the legislature because the average Taiwanese are more concerned about jobs, low income, high cost of living, rather than invasion by China. DPP after years of control have failed to address these concerns. However a prolonged blockade of Taiwan or invasion of Matsu or Kinmen islands (Taiwan already lost Hainan island), would change the average Taiwanese priorities in a hurry.

Taiwan has adopted the porcupine strategy. Make it prickly and slow down the invasion long enough for the US and its allies to come to liberate. The entire country is an island. There is no where to run and escape. Fighting will be in cities. Casualties and destruction will be enormous. Current simulations where in fact the invasion is defeated leaves the island in ruins and millions dead.

China has to first strike Okinawa and Tokyo (bases and ports) as well as the Philippines in order to successfully send its invasion fleet. With second strikes at Guam and Australia. China has a six month oil reserve before the blockade strangles it. Ukraine has lasted 2 years and is still going. Gaza is over 3 months and no one has run out of weapons or supplies yet.

Countries with long standing disputes over stolen land (Cambodia) or liberation (North Korea) will also be encouraged to invade their neighbors, spreading destruction to Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea.

My opinions fears and worries, of course.

Emirates seems like safer future flights to Cambodia (maybe) for the next few years.

The thing that blows my mind is that following any invasion, Taiwan would be backed to the hilt by its absolute ally the USA on the pretext that Taiwan deserves it's right to self determination and ultimately independence. That's odd considering the basis for the American Civil War was the secession of the Confederate States and the fact that the USA considers aspirations of independence as unconditional. So now with all this talk of democracy and rule of law, is there any hypocrisy in that sentiment?

Hypocrisy is life...

I difference between usa civil war n taiwan is that it was fought during the separation and the union was reintegrated after the north victory... Communist china never eliminated the kmt in the sense that when kmt bolted to taiwan mao didnt go after them. Letting them basically est a gov n rule of law after 75+ years was never going to end well with failures on both sides.

Too much politics involved.. take a step back if we were the small potato itll be nice to have supportive allies...

Cambo Dear wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:37 pm The thing that blows my mind is that following any invasion, Taiwan would be backed to the hilt by its absolute ally the USA on the pretext that Taiwan deserves it's right to self determination and ultimately independence. That's odd considering the basis for the American Civil War was the secession of the Confederate States and the fact that the USA considers aspirations of independence as unconditional. So now with all this talk of democracy and rule of law, is there any hypocrisy in that sentiment?

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sun Jan 14, 2024 10:08 am the future will be interesting for sure in Taiwan.

Beijing called him a "troublemaker" and a dangerous "separatist". Now he will be Taiwan's next president.

China's claims over Taiwan are not new - it sees the island as part of its territory and Xi Jinping has made unification a goal. But the threats have ramped up in the past year.

And yet, despite renewed warnings from China against voting for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), millions of Taiwanese headed to the polls under warm, sunny skies on Saturday to do just that.

They picked their 64-year-old vice-president, a doctor-turned politician, William Lai Ching-te, to lead Taiwan through its testy relationship with China.

It's an unprecedented third term for the DPP, a party China sees as skirting too close to its unquestionable red line - Taiwanese independence.

How Mr Lai manages Beijing, and how Beijing reacts to him, will determine his presidency.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-679 ... me=twitter

Cambodian economy will tank, if China invades Taiwan....