It's not brexit lol

Headlines should be: BREAKING: The global economy

Jerry Atrick wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 12:53 pm It's not brexit lol

Headlines should be: BREAKING: The global economy

Brexit isn't the only cause of Britain's problems but it is having a big impact on them and until its sorted it will continue to have an impact on business confidence to invest in Britain. Britain's trade has been smashed compared to the other advanced economies.

https://www.ft.com/content/021c629d-585 ... 5f0eb65a35

We rescued the banks and that costs several hundred billion £'s. Next came the post GFC recession with Govt borrowing was over £100b a year and then came austerity. Austerity normally means living within or well below your means, but to the UK this meant borrowing only about £50-80 billion per year.

Then came Brexit and this is a disaster. Then came Covid and that was another £300 Billion borrowing hit.

And now we have rampant inflation caused by energy costs spiralling and supply chains breaking down, so that's another £150 Billion with Govt subsidising homes and also business'. All this is borrowings.

National debt is now £2.45 TRILLION. Every additional 1% the government has to repay to service this debt costs £24.5 Billion. If rates go to 5% that will mean £125 Billion per year, just to service the debt pile, which is increasing at an alarming rate.

They just had a mini budget that had large tax cuts.

You don't need to be a PhD economist to see that the UK is in deep trouble, and the markets smell blood.

Debt Pile


Budget deficits


https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/rev/ ... _a&inline=

https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/rev/ ... _a&inline=

My opinion is that, yes, the pound and euro are both suffering because of the covid/ukraine doubly compounding issues

However, the US dollar is trading far above it's true value at this time which isn't helping.

At some point the dollar will shit the bed & and euro and pound will recover against it

Some of you old fellows will remember 1985 and the plaza accord which saw the pound almost as low as it is today and how that low was quickly left behind in a matter of months

while I don't presently have any of my value stored in the euro or the pound; if I was forced to choose one with a gun to my head it would always be the pound because the euro experiment cannot be called successful at this stage

GBP/USD

Early 1800s: 5
Napoleonic Wars: 3.62
US Civil War: 10
WW1: 3.66
WW2: 3.25
1949 devaluation: 2.8
BoP crisis: 2.4
Vietnam War: 2.65
Oil crisis: 1.58
Plaza Accord: 1.05
ERM: 2
GFC: 1.35
Brexit: 1.2
Today: 1.03

Currency markets are probably the hardest to predict of all...

AndyKK wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:46 am I did what you are talking about, leaving some money in my UK bank. I have the usual, current and savings accounts. To transfer money from the bank to Cambodia I have to use the current account. And it was recently the bank put a monthly £3 charge on the account. I also had a ISA, but it's worth very little with interest rates being so low. Would be better if I had transferred the money to a microfinance here, but I do worry if something goes wrong, I can't afford to lose monies.
Also does anyone know what the situation is with tax returns?

If you have UK income you have until 31 October to submit a self-assessment tax return by hard copy https://www.gov.uk/tax-uk-income-live-abroad

Jerry Atrick wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:47 pm

However, the US dollar is trading far above it's true value at this time which isn't helping.

At some point the dollar will shit the bed &

this isnot my area but its a boring day so when i read the above quote and i am here and i am leaving a bank account for an offspring
does it mean i should maybe change some of my dollar account into a riel account ? or not , or wait and,see ?

Jerry Atrick wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:47 pm
while I don't presently have any of my value stored in the euro or the pound; if I was forced to choose one with a gun to my head it would always be the pound because the euro experiment cannot be called successful at this stage

When a world crisis starts, you are always advised to buy swiss franks as a safe heaven.

truffledog wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:35 pm

Jerry Atrick wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:47 pm
while I don't presently have any of my value stored in the euro or the pound; if I was forced to choose one with a gun to my head it would always be the pound because the euro experiment cannot be called successful at this stage

When a world crisis starts, you are always advised to buy swiss franks as a safe heaven.

Gold, silver and a couple of digital assets would be my choice, but that's not a bad option at all.