Much of the world seems to be in the grip of a 'cost of living' crisis at the moment, with food and energy prices in particular apparently rocketing due to various reasons, mainly, it seems, due to the Ukraine war but other factor are apparently at play. The supply chain for many goods, not just food, has broken down and all I read is that things will only get worse.

So far however, I haven't noticed a rise in food or energy prices in Cambodia and life seems to be continuing as normal.

Any armchair economic forecast analysts out there who might want to shed some light on if or when Cambodia could be hit by this crisis? All I seem to read about is how it's pushing more and more people into poverty, so for it to happen to a country where so many are already suffering poverty could be devastating.

Any thoughts?

What you read about and reality are often two very different things.

xandreu wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 8:30 pm Much of the world seems to be in the grip of a 'cost of living' crisis at the moment, with food and energy prices in particular apparently rocketing due to various reasons, mainly, it seems, due to the Ukraine war but other factor are apparently at play. The supply chain for many goods, not just food, has broken down and all I read is that things will only get worse.

So far however, I haven't noticed a rise in food or energy prices in Cambodia and life seems to be continuing as normal.

Any armchair economic forecast analysts out there who might want to shed some light on if or when Cambodia could be hit by this crisis? All I seem to read about is how it's pushing more and more people into poverty, so for it to happen to a country where so many are already suffering poverty could be devastating.

Any thoughts?

Costs have been rising steadily since the beginning of 2020 in many parts of the world; this Ukraine conflict is just the cherry on top.

Somebody in N.I told me the other day that it was costing them 6k euro to heat their house for the year this year. Up from around 2k previous years

That's gotta sting, plus electric and other bills on top also perhaps increasing it's a bitter one for many no doubt

I suppose living in a first world country with most products available, when something goes a miss, you would notice. Such has food and energy prices seem to be always on the rise, but that is particularly felt more when the basic living stays at the same rate.
Cambodia on the other hand is still a developing country, and seem to have the correct commodities to export, being mainly agriculture foods and clothing. Also, I see that there is much development and investment, thus people mainly in the cities have more disposable income.
But one thing I have noticed is that there are no Rice Krispies on any of the super market shelves, but there are plenty of prestige cars for sale.

xandreu wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 8:30 pm Much of the world seems to be in the grip of a 'cost of living' crisis at the moment, with food and energy prices in particular apparently rocketing due to various reasons, mainly, it seems, due to the Ukraine war but other factor are apparently at play. The supply chain for many goods, not just food, has broken down and all I read is that things will only get worse.

So far however, I haven't noticed a rise in food or energy prices in Cambodia and life seems to be continuing as normal.

Any armchair economic forecast analysts out there who might want to shed some light on if or when Cambodia could be hit by this crisis? All I seem to read about is how it's pushing more and more people into poverty, so for it to happen to a country where so many are already suffering poverty could be devastating.

Any thoughts?

I would guess soon after the Thai Civil War breaks out or China invades Taiwan.


There's information about this kind of stuff in the Internet (not that it's necessarily correct). According to https://tradingeconomics.com/cambodia/inflation-cpi:

"Inflation Rate in Cambodia is expected to be 3.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the Cambodia Inflation Rate Phnom Penh is projected to trend around 2.80 percent in 2023, according to our econometric models."

John Bingham wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 10:17 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 8:30 pm So far however, I haven't noticed a rise in food or energy prices in Cambodia and life seems to be continuing as normal.

Food prices have been steadily climbing too.

Can you provide any specific examples? In Vietnam, I've noticed a slight price increase with a particular local brand of ground coffee and with many menu items in "western" and Italian restaurants and not much else. Of course, I'm not much of a consumer, so what do I know?

Similar to xandreu's observation, life here seems to be continuing as normal.

At the same time, these are some recent headlines:

Pakistan On The Verge Of Inflationary Collapse - Pleads For Larger IMF Bailout

German Inflation Hits 60-Year-High, 'Worse To Come', Says Allianz

Households Worldwide Wrecked By Soaring Gas Prices

The Worst Energy Crisis In U.S. History Is Going To Get Even Worse In The Months Ahead

Sri Lanka has already defaulted, who is next?

The way they have always worked it is "The public will grumble for a while, then get on with it." But now they are figuring they will hike everything through the roof, to last for awhile, because the reaction is the same.

Cambodia can't be sheltered from imports, but it's a percentage increase on cost of essential living expenses - food, medical, a roof - so smaller.

I don't know about sheltered, but less things affect Cambodia, like retirement and other social security payouts, that have to increase along with CoL adjustments. Wages should have to increase by the same percentage as CoL (but that's unlikely to happen in KoW), but it doesn't because CoL is affected by inflation - 2021 was a big one - and wages are simply a guess by government on supposedly what seems fair.

Cambodia is affected by less tourists. But if they can export more goods, they will attract bargain-hunting buyers. The factories will be on overtime.

The big problems are the wage rise is a lot smaller than the increase, this time, and will diminish purchasing power, and even then, the wage rise will be enough to deter many employers from hiring. The latter can be bad management, as employees should pay for themselves and are essential for productivity. But then there is the issue of demand.

So businesses need to carry on producing and buying, because if too many slow down with fear factor, it will cause a chain reaction.

Another problem on people's minds is this is not transitory.