BOFH wrote:Very interesting, LTO. Do you mean the national election or was it already shaking around the commune elections? If my memory doesn't fail me the commune elections were held around May/June.

Do you believe that anybody is pulling the strings on the unrest or is it possibly ordinary political dissatisfaction? There are most definitely groups of society that are unhappy about the current situation between the CPP and CNRP, do you believe these groups to be contributing to the statistics out of protest or similar? Perhaps you hit the nail on the head with: "the powers that be are ever so slightly unsure who will hold the real power next". Then again, strikes have been a rising trend since CNRP took their seats. Perhaps the garbage collectors and garment workers are still unhappy but no longer ready to protest under the Rainsy banner.

We've just seen the police chief of Phnom Penh being transferred to Sihanoukville. I haven't been following the developments with the new sheriff very closely, but it spontaneously doesn't seem like he's improved much, if anything at all. Tons of rumours circulating about how this and that will no longer be tolerated, however. We've seen DUIs on the rise, at one point somebody even reported the use of breathalyzers. From what I hear the famous snatchings at Wat Lanka are more common than ever.

National elections. Commune elections have never made a difference, but the pre-national election crime wave has traditionally been as predictable as the National Crime Month that precedes Khmer New Year.

Sihanoukville is a bit of an aberration and difficult to generalize into national trends. Sihanoukville is barely part of Cambodia, really more of a fiefdom unto itself. In the past they've sent enough tribute to Phnom Penh to be left alone, but the degeneration of the last year, especially with foreign mobsters shooting it out in the streets, and places like Koh Rong unashamedly and blatantly awash in drugs, made the place an embarrassment. Not sure why it crossed the line from free-wheeling to free-for-all, but it was taking on the appearance of not just being independent but being out of control, hence the new sheriff.

As for Phnom Penh, I'm not sure why the crime rate has not gone down. Though there was more crime during the post election period, that was probably just opportunism by people taking advantage of the anarchy caused by the protests. But as for now, not sure. I don't think the current crime wave is a political protest of some sort, at least not a conscious one. Could be wrong but I get no hit of that. It may be, as I think you suggest, that it appears the reigns of power are loser and less sure, and people are taking advantage of that. It may be that the old fear of authority that kept a lot of the KR generation in check may be fading as people find that authorities can really only do just so much. Or it may be that Cambodia is just coming of age - the facebook generation that supposedly is going to impact politics in the next election have matured and are of criminal age - in their late teens, 20s and early 30s when males are most likely to engage in criminal acts. The proliferation of nasty drugs like meth into that largely uncontrolled generation is also likely a contributing factor. For foreigners, it may also be that there are just more foreigners around, especially naive unworldly types, so there is just more opportunity for the criminals to commit crimes against them, though that would not explain the increase crime against Cambodians as well. Not sure.

LTO wrote:

BOFH wrote:Very interesting, LTO. Do you mean the national election or was it already shaking around the commune elections? If my memory doesn't fail me the commune elections were held around May/June.

Do you believe that anybody is pulling the strings on the unrest or is it possibly ordinary political dissatisfaction? There are most definitely groups of society that are unhappy about the current situation between the CPP and CNRP, do you believe these groups to be contributing to the statistics out of protest or similar? Perhaps you hit the nail on the head with: "the powers that be are ever so slightly unsure who will hold the real power next". Then again, strikes have been a rising trend since CNRP took their seats. Perhaps the garbage collectors and garment workers are still unhappy but no longer ready to protest under the Rainsy banner.

We've just seen the police chief of Phnom Penh being transferred to Sihanoukville. I haven't been following the developments with the new sheriff very closely, but it spontaneously doesn't seem like he's improved much, if anything at all. Tons of rumours circulating about how this and that will no longer be tolerated, however. We've seen DUIs on the rise, at one point somebody even reported the use of breathalyzers. From what I hear the famous snatchings at Wat Lanka are more common than ever.

National elections. Commune elections have never made a difference, but the pre-national election crime wave has traditionally been as predictable as the National Crime Month that precedes Khmer New Year.

Sihanoukville is a bit of an aberration and difficult to generalize into national trends. Sihanoukville is barely part of Cambodia, really more of a fiefdom unto itself. In the past they've sent enough tribute to Phnom Penh to be left alone, but the degeneration of the last year, especially with foreign mobsters shooting it out in the streets, and places like Koh Rong unashamedly and blatantly awash in drugs, made the place an embarrassment. Not sure why it crossed the line from free-wheeling to free-for-all, but it was taking on the appearance of not just being independent but being out of control, hence the new sheriff.

As for Phnom Penh, I'm not sure why the crime rate has not gone down. Though there was more crime during the post election period, that was probably just opportunism by people taking advantage of the anarchy caused by the protests. But as for now, not sure. I don't think the current crime wave is a political protest of some sort, at least not a conscious one. Could be wrong but I get no hit of that. It may be, as I think you suggest, that it appears the reigns of power are loser and less sure, and people are taking advantage of that. It may be that the old fear of authority that kept a lot of the KR generation in check may be fading as people find that authorities can really only do just so much. Or it may be that Cambodia is just coming of age - the facebook generation that supposedly is going to impact politics in the next election have matured and are of criminal age - in their late teens, 20s and early 30s when males are most likely to engage in criminal acts. The proliferation of nasty drugs like meth into that largely uncontrolled generation is also likely a contributing factor. For foreigners, it may also be that there are just more foreigners around, especially naive unworldly types, so there is just more opportunity for the criminals to commit crimes against them, though that would not explain the increase crime against Cambodians as well. Not sure.

One thing you forgot. The cost of living has gone through the roof + more things to buy to 'be' somebody. A lot of poor people live day to day. If they have money left for breakfast they are happy. After that one needs to make enough for the rest of the day. Trade, beg , borrow or steal. You could get by quite comfortably on a dollar a day not so long ago, now that's more like 4 or 5.
Some gangstas say 50, minimum. Ice is one of the biggest problems, along with pharmacy drugs.Need for speed and all that. Drugs don't grow on trees you know.

Yup, COL has risen drastically in 13 years. Petrol price goes down, but motodop/tuk tuk fares stay static.

Used to pay 2000 riel from St. 222 to Westren in Toul Kork, and $55 for an en-suite room with aircon, fully furnished at the top of a villa.

Enter: carpetbaggers. Adios.

About time someone sent the ACME carpet cleaners around and gave the city a free trial. Kinda like Taxi Driver for bankers.

Some really in depth and interesting responses so far. More about the reality than the perceptive but very interesting.

I particularly like teh link to Facebook. With a very young and, in urban areas, young tech savy population, shall we see more elements of the Arab Spring, as people become more empowered to act against the gap between those at the top and the general population.

The Arab Spring was built on a sense of community and selflessness. This is Cambodia. Enough said.

EdinWigan wrote:Some really in depth and interesting responses so far. More about the reality than the perceptive but very interesting.

I particularly like teh link to Facebook. With a very young and, in urban areas, young tech savy population, shall we see more elements of the Arab Spring, as people become more empowered to act against the gap between those at the top and the general population.

And this is more about perception than reality, unless I've seriously missed something. Did you have particular country in mind where the "young tech savvy population" has been able to improve the lot of the general population ? Tunisia might be the least worst example among the Arab Spring countries, but why are all the kids trying to leave the country?
It's a mess.

vladimir wrote:The Arab Spring was built on a sense of community and selflessness. This is Cambodia. Enough said.

One of those things that seemed like a good idea at the time. Alas.
(I stayed up all night watching Ben Ali get disposed on a shitty black and white TV in S'ville, so yeah, I was excited at the time. My enthusiasm has since declined.) Really don't see why this would work better in cambodia.

But, I can also say that I was jubilant when Marcos was overthrown and I still have a People Power T-shirt that I keep proudly at the back of a cupboard somewhere. Aquino will save the Philippines ! What a chump. No wonder we get cynical.

With over 20% of teh Cambodian population being between 15 and 24 and the urban ones being a lot more IT literate, a growing number of smart phone users . was what I meant, although, as Vlad has said the events in North Africa were different, it has been recognised that Social Media was an major factor in resistance communication.

Maybe this is why China is so keen to keep it blocked?

Your damn tootin' ED ^. Information was always the privilege of the wealthy few. As technology has developed, it has become more and more a tool that can be used by the population as a whole. The governments don't want information disseminating anymore than they did back in the days of the Paine's "The Rights of Man". They know that information is power and they want to make sure the power remains firmly in their hands. Like the enclave idea, I think this is another area which will ultimately bite them in the ass.
Sure they have managed to dumb the world down quite considerably in the last 10 or so years even with Facebook , but it is not so much the global consciousness of enlightened souls which I believe caused the recent ( and ongoing) world riots, but more about the high prices of everyday necessities and lack of wage increases that should be accompanying them.
I don't believe people riot for democracy, they riot because their families are suffering. It has to get pretty bad before they really take to the streets. Mind you a bit of "Nazi' policing always puts them in the right mood to take it to the next level.
I was reading that the riots in Scottish history around the time of the charter acts were not driven by democratic need, the Scottish author (Smoute) could not find one example where they were rioting over anything other than a lack of food because of extreme price increases due in the main by malicious carpetbagging landlords (.com).