xandreu wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:10 pm
If it was the Ruskies, they will simply deny it and use the accusations to further escalate the war, making the possibility of NATO intervention even more likely

Why would Russia want to escalate the war?

Yobbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:53 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 6:10 pm
If it was the Ruskies, they will simply deny it and use the accusations to further escalate the war, making the possibility of NATO intervention even more likely

Why would Russia want to escalate the war?

This guy explains the whole situation pretty succinctly in my view. Skip to the 6 minute mark where even he says we're unlikely to know who the culprit was, due to it leading to a massive escalation. Although to be fair, perhaps escalation is the wrong word. Justification might have been a better word. A direct accusation from the west would, in Putin's eyes, give Putin justification for whatever he has up his sleeve next.

And as the presenter says in the earlier part of the video, if the US were found to have been responsible, it would ruin their credibility around the world and probably spell the end of NATO.

Either way, we're unlikely to know for sure who did it.

So who has the greatest motive?
Who would want these powers going to war?

Yobbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:06 pm So who has the greatest motive?

I don't think anyone can deny that it seems like a bizarre thing to do, whoever did it, and it's not really clear, whoever did do it, what they stand to gain from it.

For me, the most plausable answer is, as I said, that it's a direct warning to the west from Russia that it has the capabilities, the skills and the willingness to destroy all manner of critical infrastructure, if it continues to piss Russia off.

Although the threat is there, and it is real, not many analysists believe Putin would actually go through with his nuclear threat. Nor do anything that would trigger an immediate NATO response. So by blowing up (now obsolete) infrustructure, he's warning the west that while he may not be prepared to use nukes, he is willing to bring Europe to its knees by destroying its critical infrustructure.

But let's be honest, no-one really has any idea what his plans are, how this will end, or even his thought processses. To my mind, after decades of turning Russia into effectively a mafia state, with him being The Godfather, and his extreme self-isolation due to Covid, the man is suffering from paranoid delusions and has simply gone mad.

But as the Godfather, with such a tight grip on his power, so far, no-one in his inner circle has yet had the balls to oust him.

But ousting him is the only way this will end, if we're honest. It's that or the nukes.

xandreu wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:23 pm

Yobbo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:06 pm So who has the greatest motive?

For me, the most plausable answer is, as I said, that it's a direct warning to the west from Russia that it has the capabilities, the skills and the willingness to destroy all manner of critical infrastructure, if it continues to piss Russia off.

He's warning the west that while he may not be prepared to use nukes, he is willing to bring Europe to its knees by destroying its critical infrustructure.
.

Infrastructure/supply lines has been integral part of every war strategy from day dot!
Every country would have one!!
Doesn't make sense!!!

The most important positive, on a humanitarian level, for me at least, to come from all of this is that, despite Russia directly or indirectly destroying the living standards of many, many people around the world who are not directly involved in this war - basically the rest of the world except Ukraine (mostly Europe) - no-one is calling for anyone to let Russia do what it wants so that we can bring the world back to some kind of stability again. It would be very easy for the rest of the world to simply shrug their shoulders, say Ukraine is nothing to do with us, and sacrifice Ukraine in order to put an end to all of this, so that we can all go back to our comfortable lives.

As a UK citizen, I don't agree with much of what Boris and especially the new PM, Liz Truss did / are doing, domestically, but I fully, 100% agree with them that there is no way whatsoever, whatever the cost, can the rest of the world afford to take a back seat and allow Russia to simply do what it wants. As Liz Truss said in a recent interview, if we allow this, there will be no end to it. It will send a message to all autocratic states around the world, that they are free to invade whatever soverign territory they want, and the rules-based, western democrocies in the world will simply shrug their shoulders and basically do nothing.

The world is currently being ripped apart by this war, especially economically, but almost everyone understands why, what the stakes are, and that there is no alternative. And everyone, for now, is prepared to tolerate it. That, for me, is remarkable.

Personally, I'd rather die in a nuclear armegeddon than live in a world of fear and tyranny.

Insane! Putin has just annexed four regions of the Ukraine;
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-30/ ... /101493000