China’s strategy towards Myanmar until recent months has been carefully hedged and somewhat cautious towards the February 1, 2021 coup d’état. Indeed, the military takeover and ensuing chaos endanger Chinese interests in stability and a strategic infrastructure route to the Indian Ocean under its Belt and Road Initiative.

But, Beijing is now shifting tack. Despite continued escalation in fighting between the opposition and the junta, China is willing to tip the scales in Myanmar towards the military—albeit quietly and still hedged. The United States and its allies and partners should act to counter it.

Although it was quick to back the junta after the coup, China also made its frustration known. It continued to covertly arm ethnic armed organizations along its borders and advocate for the junta to refrain from dissolving Aung San Suu Kyi’s ousted National League for Democracy (NLD), likely viewing her as a necessary stabilizing force.

......Myanmar’s new dictator had previously been blocked by ASEAN from participating in their own Summit in October. Intriguingly, the chorus of voices supporting the rejection from ASEAN then included Prime Minister HE of Cambodia, a noted friend of Beijing within the regional organization.

However, as the new chair of ASEAN for 2022, Cambodia’s tone shifted once again, and Beijing’s role in this remains unclear but potentially important. HE formally visited Myanmar in January 2022 to meet with junta leader Min Aung Hlaing and has been engaging steadily with the junta over the past few months.

Some have argued that HE will likely act as a proxy for China on Myanmar, as Cambodia did on the South China Sea issue during its last Chairmanship in 2012. Meanwhile, others see HE’s own desire to resolve the issue instead. Regardless of China’s role here, Cambodia’s widening embrace of the junta under the auspices of ASEAN coincides with and will amplify Beijing’s apparent deepening support for the Myanmar military.

For one, working more closely with allies and partners will be crucial. Key countries are those in Southeast Asia who most vehemently oppose the coup, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore, as well as others where Washington has close ties and some leverage but are friendlier to Myanmar’s military, like Thailand and Vietnam.

It also means getting Australia, India, and Japan on side, as they have refrained from pressuring the junta out of fear that punishment will drive it into China’s arms.

Second, implementing secondary sanctions on businesses in the region still working with the junta would truly bite. To be sure, this carries the risk of harming ties to countries like Thailand and Singapore, but the United States could make clear that a junta-controlled or failed state in Myanmar lies counter to their interests in a united and central ASEAN, as well as a stable Southeast Asia.

Third, the United States could formally recognize the National Unity Government—or take further steps to indicate diplomatic support—and support it with more vaccines and humanitarian aid to assist it in providing services in territory it and aligned EAOs control, particularly along the border with Thailand.
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