The coming rise of ASEAN

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nemo
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by nemo »

Your OP advances two mutually contradictory views.
1 Colonial powers have interfered in regional development in the past for their own benefit to the injury of ASEAN members.
2 Said countries should now further benefit using the same methods.
You can't have it both ways.
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

It's NOT a zero sum game, Nemo.
Sorry if you cant get your head around subtleties like that.

Obviously the West can engage in SEA on better terms, and with more wisdom, than we have in the past.

anyway, i'm out for now
you're making me grumpier :) by being so (imo) willingly obtuse
apologies if i am wrong and you really just don't understand what i am saying. if so, my bad - possibly my overwinded enunciation again.

I am not looking for a fight (thistime) i am trying to get a handle on what us expats think we, the west, could/should do to improve our position here into the future.
I reckon ASEAN is about to kick up a gear, and that holds good promise for us if we play it right. That is my objective reading as well as my hope.
And undoubtably that is in SEA's best interests too - unlike some of our previous adventures here.

:hattip:
Last edited by SternAAlbifrons on Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Ong Tay
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by Ong Tay »

SternAAlbifrons wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:39 pm
I, and the Commonwealths of Australia and New Zealand and all their dominions make no bones about helping anti-communist ASEAN become a strong and effective grouping of free nations since even before the bloc was born. And close allies.
Anti-communist ASEAN? In case you forgot, Vietnam is still communist, as is Lao PDR.
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

ASEAN was formed specifically as an anti-communist bloc.
It is morphing into a china-alternative bloc.
If we dont see Vietnam as a natural ally here - we are sunk. (for attitude, not because VN is vital in itself)
fact x 3

ask the US VP about #3 - even she was bright enough to head straight there on her first overseas trip.
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nemo
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by nemo »

The only thing that will change the status quo is money and lots of it.
Given the West's seeming inability to reinvest in their own infrastructure, I doubt funding will be forthcoming.
The cost of land in the region is also an enormous disincentive to investment compared to other international locations.

With Chinese investment outpacing the west by 5 to 1, it is a big gap.

China has proven itself as a very beneficial ally to Laos and Cambodia, and a vital lifeline to the Tatmadaw in Burma- the only thing standing between it and pariah status.

The remaining members are independent, and their vital interest lies in defending maritime sovereignty.

Thus ASEAN is only a loose regional civil body, with disparate interests in no way like the Quad, Anzus, UKUSA, and the numerous unnamed security agreements with Indonesia where the affiliation is on military lines.

ASEAN will definitely grow with regional trade and infrastructure, but unlikely to become another mini EU.
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by phuketrichard »

a good thoughtful piece: By Sebastian Strangio

Personally with he at the head i think we will see a divided ASEAN this year

Excerpts:
Cambodia will push to engage directly with Myanmar’s military government during its upcoming chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the country’s Prime Minister HE said yesterday, six weeks after the junta was excluded from the bloc’s biannual summit.

As chair of ASEAN for 2022, Cambodia’s approach to Myanmar will set the tone for the bloc’s efforts to address the spiraling political and humanitarian crisis that has ravaged the country since the the military’s February coup.
This makes it unlikely that ASEAN will over the next year take stronger steps to isolate the junta and recognize the opposition National Unity Government (NUG). It could also open up fissures within the Southeast Asian grouping, particularly with the maritime nations that have been advocated a firmer ASEAN line – Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines – and those mainland nations that have centered the bloc’s “non-interference” principle.

More widely, many will view HE’s overtures as a unilateral recognition of the military regime as Myanmar’s legitimate government. In a statement, Kasit Piromya, a former Thai foreign minister and board member of the advocacy group ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, said that HE’s comments risked squandering the diplomatic progress that ASEAN has made over the past few months.
“HE’s reckless comments on recognizing the junta risk wasting ASEAN’s hard-won diplomatic progress since the coup took place,” he said. “It makes no sense that Cambodian PM HE is discussing plans to visit Myanmar, thereby legitimizing the junta, before progress has been made on the Five-Point Consensus. This was the very reason ASEAN excluded junta leader Min Aung Hlaing from its Summit in October.”

In recent years there has been a tendency of Western observers to view Cambodia’s government and its motives in the worst possible light, which is perhaps understandable in light of the events that unfolded during the country’s last chairmanship of ASEAN in 2012. That year, Cambodia intervened to scuttle criticism of China’s actions in the South China Sea, preventing the bloc from issuing its joint communique for the first time in its history and earning it an international reputation as China’s proxy within ASEAN.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/new-ase ... mar-junta/

I find it utterly disgusting that HE is even considering meeting with the head of a government that promotes terrorism and murders by the tatmadaw of its civilian's. < Read the latest atrocities on the burma thread> post524335.html#p524335
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

nemo wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:43 pm Thus ASEAN is only a loose regional civil body, with disparate interests in no way like the Quad, Anzus, UKUSA, and the numerous unnamed security agreements with Indonesia where the affiliation is on military lines.

ASEAN will definitely grow with regional trade and infrastructure, but unlikely to become another mini EU.
I did warn you that it would not look exactly like we want it to. Like we are used to.
- like the only models we can get our narrow little western mindframes around.

The comparisons you make are not relevant. It's another box, Nemo. Not the Olde Worlde on the other side of the planet.
Get your head around that. Or not.

and if anybody thinks the current 'disparate' situation is set in stone, imo, they are clueless about what is going on behind closed doors.
- movement.
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by John Bingham »

phuketrichard wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:07 pm I find it utterly disgusting that HE is even considering meeting with the head of a government that promotes terrorism and murders by the tatmadaw of its civilian's.
Surely it's better to have a dialog rather than ignoring the issues? We still have good relations with Thailand even though they terrorize and murder civilians regularly.
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by phuketrichard »

John Bingham wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:34 am
phuketrichard wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:07 pm I find it utterly disgusting that HE is even considering meeting with the head of a government that promotes terrorism and murders by the tatmadaw of its civilian's.
Surely it's better to have a dialog rather than ignoring the issues? We still have good relations with Thailand even though they terrorize and murder civilians regularly.
By meeting with the leaders he legitimizes the take over and throwing out the election results and than making up phony charges against Aung San. Something the article above refers to .
We are not talking about Thailand here. You seem to keep harping on my posts and than throw up a reference to thailand>
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: The coming rise of ASEAN

Post by John Bingham »

phuketrichard wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:49 am
John Bingham wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 12:34 am
phuketrichard wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 8:07 pm I find it utterly disgusting that HE is even considering meeting with the head of a government that promotes terrorism and murders by the tatmadaw of its civilian's.
Surely it's better to have a dialog rather than ignoring the issues? We still have good relations with Thailand even though they terrorize and murder civilians regularly.
By meeting with the leaders he legitimizes the take over and throwing out the election results and than making up phony charges against Aung San. Something the article above refers to .
We are not talking about Thailand here. You seem to keep harping on my posts and than throw up a reference to thailand>
Aung San Suu Kyi did more than anyone to legitimize the Myanmar government. Nobody cares about here since she condoned their genocidal practices against Rohingyas. What's the problem with bringing Thailand into it? You do it on almost every thread and you need reminding that Thailand was involved in murdering Rohingyas too.
Silence, exile, and cunning.
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