I'd say it's going to recover in 4-5 years. Any of the options for months are way too optimistic.

Even when restrictions are lifted you will have people hesitant to travel, particularly international travels. No doubt there are some people that can't wait to travel once things are all opened up, however, you also have plenty that will be afraid to venture too far from home.

GMJS-CEO wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:20 pm I'd say it's going to recover in 4-5 years. Any of the options for months are way too optimistic.

Even when restrictions are lifted you will have people hesitant to travel, particularly international travels. No doubt there are some people that can't wait to travel once things are all opened up, however, you also have plenty that will be afraid to venture too far from home.

I'd agree with that. Things won't get back to normal levels until the 2 week holiday makers feel comfortable again. Who would risk going to a country for 2 weeks if they are worried about the possibility of restrictions being imposed at short notice. There will need to be a period of calm before mass tourism returns.

With all the debate going on about the climate right now there could be further problems on the horizon for mass tourism too.

Google flights are showing carbon emissions per person now on each flight

nemo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:30 pm Google flights are showing carbon emissions per person now on each flight

And did so last month ..
And last year if I recall well...

IMO its never.

We will have at least a year or two where many countries are going to require testing prior to leaving and upon arrival - test positive and head to quarantine. No one with a family is going to sign up for that. Throw in the fact that you'll get hit with a bill for $50-$100 per test and the idea of a Thailand/Cambodia/Vietnam trip for a family of four is not going to happen. The testing costs/hassles will even hit the younger crowd and they won't have the budget for testing and any potential quarantines.

Plus there is a percentage of people that will permanently change their habits post covid. Many folks are quitting jobs, spending more time with their kids/families/spouses and valuing their home life.

With all the waves of Covid that we have had another segment of the population simply isn't going to risk international travel. The stories of people stranded are well known and will remain in people's memories for a long time. I expect record attendance at national parks and theme parks as people continue to make domestic vacation plans for years to come. There is pent up demand to get out and about, but I think going to the Grand Canyon will substitute for the summer trip to Venice.

Even if we get to some new point of living with Covid without testing/vaccine mandates/etc. By that time I fully expect that international airfare will be much more expensive. Each natural disaster moves politicians closer to more and more restrictions on fossil fuels, taxes, and regulations to discourage consuming them. I could envision a day when we are "permitted" one international flight every five years (for leisure). Or there being a $1000 environmental surcharge added to the cost of all long haul plane rides. Of course, who knows - maybe someone invents the solar airplane that emits nothing!

I feel bad for the current generation of kids. They've had their education wrecked and may grow up wearing masks as a "normal" activity. Wish I was more optimistic but I see a kind of malaise for the next several years.

I have the sinking feeling that just when we start thinking the situation is improving a new strain will emerge or the vaccines effectiveness will start to diminish or something and the situation will go back to being crap again.

nemo wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:30 pm Google flights are showing carbon emissions per person now on each flight

How do they know how much each person weighs Another tax on fares coming, but you can feel all warm and fuzzy knowing the $$ will be going to the environment

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 6:39 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 12, 2021 2:23 pm Let's dare to dream and say the government throws open the doors on 1st November - no quarantine - no testing on arrival - E-Visa for Tourists, just like it was in 2019.

How long before the tourist areas begin to resemble what they were like before this shitshow started, with small hotels open and viable, a multitude of bars and eateries all vying for swarms of people, busy streets and lots of new faces and returning old one. The Good Old Days.

EXCLUDING the Chinese and Koreans, the number will not significantly increase until the number increase in Thailand and thats why i clicked 1-2 years and thats being VERY optimistic, realistically 3-4 years

FYI: i doubt thailand will see 39 million arrivals till mid 2025-26, if ever again

Yes, I think a return to some semblance of normal tourist activity is dependent on our neighbors. How many tourists (besides Chinese) actually visit Cambodia only? Two days is enough to see everything in PP and then maybe 2-3 days for Siem Reap. Some experienced adventurers may be up to it but most tourists are not spending 1-2 weeks traveling the provinces. I would imagine most tourists coming from EU and USA (at least those with some money to spend) are including at least Thailand and probably Vietnam/Malaysia/Singapore. Probably even the same for hygiene challenged back packers.

Here is a thoughtful and measured article about the impact of Covid - 19 Delta strain on southern Vietnam.
Well worth the read for those seeking to be informed rather than just speculating.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-inter ... lta-spread

The situation in southern Vietnam impacts directly with cross border travel between VN and KH and the maintenance of border closured and movement of people.

OML