airfare purchase algorithm

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TWY
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by TWY »

Doc67 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:49 am I've asked this before but did really get a definitive answer, so I'll have another go.

Where can I find the load factor for a specific airline route, i.e. the average amounts of seats taken on that route.

Anyone have a magic website where you can find this information or is it a closely guarded secret?
http://www.aviationdb.com/Aviation/F4SD ... htm#SUBMIT

Doc, you can try this site - but I believe its US centric and I just noticed that it indicates international data not uploaded since COVID.
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by johnnywalker3 »

FWIW I'll post what I found useful when trying to get the best deal on international airfare but most of it applied to a pre-COVID world so no idea how much is still true.

I looked into the clearing cookies thing and came to the conclusion that it was probably not true. What I remember finding was that the airlines had different pricing buckets and when the lower pricing bucket finished then a new higher price would appear. When prices changes rapidly it is what happens when a very few tickets remain in the lower price bucket and there were several ways that the lower price could reappear suddenly (ticket cancellations, ticket changes, etc). Some airlines seemed to remove the ticket from availability at some point in the booking process online so you could even be removing availability for yourself by checking prices on multiple browsers.

The lower tier price buckets are released in bunches throughout the weeks approaching the flight so they could sell out but reappear later when that price bucket would release more tickets again or by cancellations. If I remember correctly the best time to catch the lower price releases was Tuesday or Wednesday night (US time) with the sweet spot tending to be 3-6 weeks before the flight.

I used google flights to check alternate airports and quickly compare prices and would check for a few weeks in a row beginning about 8 weeks before booking. For me I had a target price so if it hit I would go ahead and book and not worry too much if a better deal came later. Watching the price for a week or so gave a pretty good idea of what was a good price to target.

No idea if any of this still applies though. Before COVID this system worked pretty well. I was generally able to find flights to Southeast Asia for around $500 roundtrip from the US and a couple of times even found them under $400.
rubberbaron
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by rubberbaron »

Airlines change their fares for any given route several times a day. I found the best tool here:
https://matrix.itasoftware.com/
Use that in combination with
ita-matrix-powertools-master.zip - to be downloaded. It is virus free, don't worry.

This will give you the lowest for your desired day on several airlines. The powertools will show where you can purchase the tickets. Sometimes, though, prices then shown on one of those sites are higher. I found flightscanner to be the most reliable. Sometimes you also might want to go to the airline's site to book directly to get the lowest price.

ITA matrix is used by most booking engines, e. g. Orbitz, Expedia.
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truffledog
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by truffledog »

Doc67 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:49 am I've asked this before but did really get a definitive answer, so I'll have another go.

Where can I find the load factor for a specific airline route, i.e. the average amounts of seats taken on that route.

Anyone have a magic website where you can find this information or is it a closely guarded secret?
that is sensible data you will only have access to if you are a yield manager (or controller) of an airline-You may get that figure as an overall load (all flights in a given period) factor for regular communication with stakeholders
work is for people who cant find truffles
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truffledog
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by truffledog »

johnnywalker3 wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 1:08 pm For me I had a target price so if it hit I would go ahead and book and not worry too much if a better deal came later. Watching the price for a week or so gave a pretty good idea of what was a good price to target.
best strategy imho..
work is for people who cant find truffles
rogerrabbit
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by rogerrabbit »

Websites cannot see your mac address. If you use booking app that you install on your device, then they might see it.

The booking sites only know about you is through cookies and ip-address (=location). So if you clear / change those it used to help, and still helps in some degree. Now days what the booking sites also do is look from what location the searches are coming from. So let say you are in Phnom Penh looking for Bangkok - New York flights. Then they know people from PP are looking those exact BKK-NY flights -> price will go up for all people from Phnom Penh looking Bangkok - New York flights. So what you want to do in that case is either wait few hours or use VPN to change your location.

It's always worth to change the location, language and currency on the website itself too. This especially works when you book directly through airline's own website. For example if you go united.com / skyscanner.com you can set your location, language and currency from top right header. Changing my location to US and currency USD, saved me once over 200 euro on my eu-us flight with Norwegian.

Also prices varies depending from where you come to that website. Do you arrive to the site directly using the address, from ad, from aggregator site, from google search link etc.
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xandreu
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by xandreu »

If you ever want a quick and easy way to use any website without allowing cookies to affect what you see, use the 'private browsing' / 'private window' feature that's built in to pretty much every major web browser. Every time you close it, all cookies, history and traces are automatically deleted meaning every time you open it, it's like a fresh new browser.

Depending on what you're trying to do, it's limited in its usefulness, but it is very simple, quick and easy.
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BklynBoy
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Re: airfare purchase algorithm

Post by BklynBoy »

quick update so the korean airfare went back down to 1,250 today

I don't see it going any lower and @Doc67 reminded me they been pretty reliable during the pandemic. I suppose even if were to wait for Eva ( eva is suspended til June 28th)... not even worth it if doing a cost benefit analysis
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