GMJS-CEO wrote: I believe that the cases are being underreported and many not even being tested. I already referenced the stories where people leaving Cambodia somehow had it upon entry into another country, obviously some/most of them contracted it in Cambodia and it was spreading in the community.

When numerous 30-40 year olds die of "heart attacks" perhaps the numbers and cause of death reported are not to be trusted?

Good idea to move the discussion to this thread.
Yes I’ve heard various stories about people testing positive when arriving in other countries like Thailand from Cambodia. But I haven’t seen anything official, such government comments or any data.
I agree there has been minimal testing here, but who would you test apart from migrants arriving and international arrivals? Which random group of people would you choose?
My other point remains important I think - if there were even just a few genuine cases of undetected covid a few months ago, there would already be hundreds of thousands of infected people - the virus growth is exponential.
Of those hundreds of thousands, tens of thousands would be moderately or seriously ill, and thousands would be extremely sick and hospitalised. There is no evidence of any clinic or hospital declaring that they have many cases of covid. No one on ventilators. And I do think there would have definitely been some video evidence on Facebook locally by now. But nothing so far.
I honestly believe that so far we have either been extremely fortunate here, or that the virus swept through the country from October 2019 to April 2020. There were dozens of direct flights from Wuhan happening then. And there was a lot of anecdotal evidence online of many barangs having very bad ‘flu’ with extended coughing during that period.


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To be clear, I don't necessarily think there are huge numbers of cases either. It just seems logical that there were more cases than officially reported, particularly given the penchant for things to be reported as other than the truth.

Either way, if that account was not a sock puppet I wish I hadn't started the discussion in the other thread but rather here.

jah steu wrote: ↑Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:31 pm

GMJS-CEO wrote: I believe that the cases are being underreported and many not even being tested. I already referenced the stories where people leaving Cambodia somehow had it upon entry into another country, obviously some/most of them contracted it in Cambodia and it was spreading in the community.

When numerous 30-40 year olds die of "heart attacks" perhaps the numbers and cause of death reported are not to be trusted?

Good idea to move the discussion to this thread.
Yes I’ve heard various stories about people testing positive when arriving in other countries like Thailand from Cambodia. But I haven’t seen anything official, such government comments or any data.
I agree there has been minimal testing here, but who would you test apart from migrants arriving and international arrivals? Which random group of people would you choose?
My other point remains important I think - if there were even just a few genuine cases of undetected covid a few months ago, there would already be hundreds of thousands of infected people - the virus growth is exponential.
Of those hundreds of thousands, tens of thousands would be moderately or seriously ill, and thousands would be extremely sick and hospitalised. There is no evidence of any clinic or hospital declaring that they have many cases of covid. No one on ventilators. And I do think there would have definitely been some video evidence on Facebook locally by now. But nothing so far.
I honestly believe that so far we have either been extremely fortunate here, or that the virus swept through the country from October 2019 to April 2020. There were dozens of direct flights from Wuhan happening then. And there was a lot of anecdotal evidence online of many barangs having very bad ‘flu’ with extended coughing during that period.


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I think you make good points. I became very suspicious of the reported figures from the beginning, and as you said the stories are there about people leaving from Cambodia and entering other countries with the virus.

I would certainly buy what you said regarding videos, there would logically be some sort of public recognition of it and it would be captured. Still, I do think there has been purposeful underreporting while also believing it is well contained overall in Cambodia.

Alex wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:02 am I don't know how exactly Cambodia and a few other countries here in the region got SO LUCKY, there are a number of theories and it might be a combination of factors. I do know, however, that it has very little to do with proper management. If that had taken off in the same way it did elsewhere, I'm convinced that the outcome would have been pretty much the same.

No its not luck - it was entirely predictable. Have a look at this study: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/1 ... 04339/full. Its conclusion is that there are basically 3 factors which determine the outcome: climate, age of the population, and general health of the population. Government measures are irrelevant. We can see from our own observations that the places that have the most draconian restrictions are often hardest hit - e.g. California, while many places with few restrictions are not so bad - e.g. Cambodia, Florida. We know that people in confined spaces are most likely to spread the disease so locking up people for months at a time as in the UK is bound to increase not decrease the spread of the disease.

The so-called "experts" with their computer models that are invariably wrong are the wrong people to listen to. What is needed is an examination of history to see what happened in 1968 and 1957. Then, as now, the virus came, killed off the old and sick, then faded away. This is what has happened throughout history. The 1968 Hong Kong flu persists until today and continues to kill but nobody pays attention to it. What is new this time is the mass hysteria over a disease that is not particularly serious.

samrong01 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:23 am

Alex wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:02 am I don't know how exactly Cambodia and a few other countries here in the region got SO LUCKY, there are a number of theories and it might be a combination of factors. I do know, however, that it has very little to do with proper management. If that had taken off in the same way it did elsewhere, I'm convinced that the outcome would have been pretty much the same.

No its not luck - it was entirely predictable. Have a look at this study: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/1 ... 04339/full.

Major simplification. The article was first published 20th of Nov 2020, 8 months in the pandemic.... Hindsight to the rescue.

When I chose Cambodia to sit this all out I couldn't predict it would end this well in Cambodia..... i actually prepared my shores for tough times. Back then no one could predict the current outcome.

Kammekor wrote:

samrong01 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:23 am

Alex wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:02 am I don't know how exactly Cambodia and a few other countries here in the region got SO LUCKY, there are a number of theories and it might be a combination of factors. I do know, however, that it has very little to do with proper management. If that had taken off in the same way it did elsewhere, I'm convinced that the outcome would have been pretty much the same.

No its not luck - it was entirely predictable. Have a look at this study: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/1 ... 04339/full.

Major simplification. The article was first published 20th of Nov 2020, 8 months in the pandemic.... Hindsight to the rescue.

When I chose Cambodia to sit this all out I couldn't predict it would end this well in Cambodia..... i actually prepared my shores for tough times. Back then no one could predict the current outcome.

I did. Very early on Korea had stats that showed very clearly that the elderly were most at risk. I didn't trust anything out of China, but by February or March, Korean stats clearly indicated that people were recovering and only the old died. Italy basically confirmed this fact a few months later in even more details with peer reviewed research showing 99% of deaths were from people over 75 who had pre-existing medical conditions (and it was exponential with each additional ailment). Italian median age was 44 and it's 24 here... Not hard to reach certain conclusions without having a PhD in virology. We still got lucky and I'm very happy to be here, but I think government action probably accounts for only 5-10% of the local success. If anything they were reckless at the beginning by being the only country in the world from which Wuhanians could fly directly to... For weeks.

samrong01 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:23 am

Alex wrote: ↑Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:02 am I don't know how exactly Cambodia and a few other countries here in the region got SO LUCKY, there are a number of theories and it might be a combination of factors. I do know, however, that it has very little to do with proper management. If that had taken off in the same way it did elsewhere, I'm convinced that the outcome would have been pretty much the same.

No its not luck - it was entirely predictable. Have a look at this study: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/1 ... 04339/full. Its conclusion is that there are basically 3 factors which determine the outcome: climate, age of the population, and general health of the population. Government measures are irrelevant. We can see from our own observations that the places that have the most draconian restrictions are often hardest hit - e.g. California, while many places with few restrictions are not so bad - e.g. Cambodia, Florida. We know that people in confined spaces are most likely to spread the disease so locking up people for months at a time as in the UK is bound to increase not decrease the spread of the disease.

The so-called "experts" with their computer models that are invariably wrong are the wrong people to listen to. What is needed is an examination of history to see what happened in 1968 and 1957. Then, as now, the virus came, killed off the old and sick, then faded away. This is what has happened throughout history. The 1968 Hong Kong flu persists until today and continues to kill but nobody pays attention to it. What is new this time is the mass hysteria over a disease that is not particularly serious.

Florida ... right along with Texas in fudging their numbers, unless you think 2X annual deaths from the flu is normal.

Those numbers are fudged alright, fudged upward.

samrong01 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:23 am We can see from our own observations that the places that have the most draconian restrictions are often hardest hit - e.g. California, while many places with few restrictions are not so bad - e.g. Cambodia, Florida. We know that people in confined spaces are most likely to spread the disease so locking up people for months at a time as in the UK is bound to increase not decrease the spread of the disease.
...
What is new this time is the mass hysteria over a disease that is not particularly serious.

I don't think I've ever seen a more blatant case of someone getting cause and effect so completely backwards.