'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by whatwat »

newkidontheblock wrote: Thu Dec 03, 2020 8:56 am
I sincerely hope I’m wrong. But historically, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were stopped when the democracies were forced to go to war with them.
Bickering and threatening each other with tariffs and other financial stops is different from invading a country, which is why wars start. China isn’t doing that.
Don’t listen to Chinese whispers.
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by Brody »

What would happen if China stopped buying Australian iron ore?

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/austr ... 23594.html
Despite the Australia-China ties being at an all-time low, our monthly exports to China have hit a four-year high.

Much of this is being driven by Chinese demand for Australian iron ore, which in the 2019 financial year represented a $102 billion contribution to the national economy.

China is, by far, our biggest trade partner. China bought 66 million tonnes of imports from Australia in November, which is about the same as what they bought in October. In fact, since March, it’s bought more than 60 million tonnes of Aussie goods.

But this fact stands in stark contrast to the very public trade dispute between the two nations that is currently being hosted by the media.

If the relationship deteriorates further, which looks likely, could we lose our biggest customer?

According to AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, it’s possible.

“If the trade spat continues to worsen, yes they may turn increasingly to other suppliers,” he told Yahoo Finance.

But there are two reasons they haven’t done that yet.

“First, it would mean too big a disruption to the Chinese economy.” Iron ore imports from Australia are worth $85 billion annually, and so far, the agricultural imports hit by China’s tariffs and bans are worth just $6 billion, he said.

“China would not be able to make up its iron ore needs from other sources.”

Heng Wang, a professor and co-director at UNSW Law’s CIBEL Centre, which researches Australia and China’s international trade and economic law relationship, told Yahoo Finance that it would be difficult for China to find a substitute for Australia’s iron ore which the Asian superpower is so “heavily reliant” on.

“China is reportedly importing 72 per cent of iron ore for its steel industry. Moreover, iron ore is crucial for [the] steel industry that greatly supports economic recovery and development in the context of Covid-19 outbreak,” he said.

“There is the impetus to continue existing trading patterns given the large amount of iron ore imports from Australia.”

Changing suppliers could be more trouble than it’s worth, Wang indicated, and might involve sorting out “many issues” like contracts, pricing and technical standards.

“It is a time-consuming and complex process.”

On top of this, Oliver said that Beijing might feel their trade bans and tariffs were “proportional” to its gripes with Canberra.

“Hence the targeting of relatively smaller exports, like alcoholic beverages which are around $1 billion per annum,” he said.
Could China get its iron ore from anywhere else?

The short answer is: yes, but it’s not as good. Brazil, in particular, is a major exporter of iron ore, but they are battling the pandemic, too, said Wang.

“The production in Brazil has also been affected by other factors like tailings dam collapse and heavy rain,” he said.

“Also, it is not always easy to find high-quality iron ore. China is exploring other iron ore markets like Africa but it will take time.”

But UNSW Professor of Practice in Economics Tim Harcourt doesn’t think it’s likely that China will turn to other countries for this commodity – it’s just politics.

“They are just trying to pick on Aussie small business and farmers to create political tension for the Coalition,” Harcourt told Yahoo Finance.

Besides, China is focused on growing its middle class to turn its nation of ‘shippers’ into a nation of ‘shoppers’, he added.

“Whilst the Chinese middle class are prosperous they won’t cause trouble for the Chinese Communist Party.”
What kind of economic hit would Australia cop?

Oliver estimates that the worst-case scenario would see Australia bruised by a 6 per cent hit to Australia’s GDP, or around $83.5 million.

“So far the impact is minor at a macro economic level as affected exports are around 0.3 per cent of GDP. But if bulk commodity exports including iron ore are disrupted then it would amount to 6 per cent of GDP,” he said.

“If this occurs gradually over time then Australia could adjust and find other markets. But if it occurs abruptly it would have a much bigger impact. But I agree with the Treasurer; the trade spat won’t stop the recovery in Australia which is being driven by a reopening of domestic economic activity.

“It’s more of a threat to longer term economic growth.”

Meanwhile, Harcourt simply doesn’t think it’s a possibility.

“It won’t happen.”
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

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December 4, 20209:40 AM Updated an hour ago
China tweet that enraged Australia propelled by 'unusual' accounts, say experts
By Kirsty Needham
3 Min Read

SYDNEY (Reuters) - A Chinese official’s tweet of an image of an Australian soldier that sparked a furious reaction from Canberra was amplified across social media by unusual accounts, of which half were likely fake, an Israeli cybersecurity firm and Australian experts said.

The digitally altered image of an Australian soldier holding a bloodied knife to the throat of an Afghan child was tweeted by China’s foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian on Monday.

Twitter declined Australia’s request to remove the tweet.

The Chinese embassy in Canberra told ABC television on Friday that Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s demand for an apology drew more attention to an investigation into war crimes by Australian soldiers in Afghanistan.

Cyabra, an Israeli cybersecurity firm, said it found evidence of an orchestrated campaign to promote Zhao’s tweet.

Cyabra said it had found 57.5% of accounts that engaged with Zhao’s tweet were fake, and “evidence of a largely orchestrated disinformation campaign” to amplify its message.

The firm did not give any details about who was behind the campaign.

Cyabra said it analysed 1,344 profiles and found a large number were created in November and used once, to retweet Zhao’s tweet.

The Chinese foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Queensland University of Technology’s Tim Graham analysed 10,000 replies to Zhao’s tweet.

Accounts originating in China were the most active, he said, and 8% of replies were from accounts created on the day, or in the 24 hours prior. Many contained duplicated text.

“When not tweeting about Afghan children, they were tweeting about Hong Kong,” he told Reuters in an interview.

“If there’s enough of them, those irregularities suggest they were set up for a particular campaign.”

Some of the accounts had already been identified by Graham in a data-set of 37,000 Chinese accounts targeting Australia since June, he said.

Ariel Bogle, a researcher at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said she had also noticed “unusual behaviour” by Twitter accounts retweeting or liking Zhao’s tweet.

“There was a spike in accounts created on November 30 and December 1,” she told Reuters, adding it was too early to determine if it was coordinated inauthentic behaviour or patriotic individuals.

Many of the new accounts only followed Zhao, plus one or two other accounts, she said. A third of accounts liking Zhao’s tweet had zero followers, ASPI noted.

Earlier this year, Twitter said it had removed 23,750 accounts spreading geopolitical narratives favourable to the Chinese Communist Party, and another 150,000 accounts designed to amplify these messages.

A Twitter spokeswoman said the company remains vigilant, but the Cyabra findings “don’t hold up to scrutiny” because it relied only on publicly available data.

A Cyabra spokeswoman said its founders are information warfare experts with Israeli military backgrounds, and the U.S. State Department was among its clients.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-aust ... SKBN28E0YI
Reporting by Kirsty Needham; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

The tweet is nothing.

ffs
a distraction
we are falling into their trap.
Forget the f***ing tweet and concentrate on the issues, Everybody.
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

^^^ Now, here is a valid reason for keeping up the hostilities.. >>>

Cheap lobsters on offer for Christmas tables as prices plummet due to China import ban
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020- ... n/12949926
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

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SternAAlbifrons wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:45 am ^^^ Now, here is a valid reason for keeping up the hostilities.. >>>

Cheap lobsters on offer for Christmas tables as prices plummet due to China import ban
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020- ... n/12949926
Must be an expensive boat to run if can't make a profit at $30 kilo? Poor fishermen I don't think so.
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

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Twitter declined Australia’s request to remove the tweet.


I am waiting for the day when a government pulls the plug on one of these social media companies and knocks them off their perch. I don't know if it is technically possible but I would like to see it. If ever there was a stone cold justification for pulling content, it was this one. Maybe Twitter value Chinese approval more than Australia's right to defend itself.

Twitter is just a sewer populated by idiots and celebrities trying to promote themselves, especially when there is a famous death and they all post message of condolence desperately hoping to get mentioned on the news. It really is pathetic.

#doc67
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by ExPenhMan »

Doc67 wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:01 am
Twitter declined Australia’s request to remove the tweet.


I am waiting for the day when a government pulls the plug on one of these social media companies and knocks them off their perch. I don't know if it is technically possible but I would like to see it. If ever there was a stone cold justification for pulling content, it was this one. Maybe Twitter value Chinese approval more than Australia's right to defend itself.

Twitter is just a sewer populated by idiots and celebrities trying to promote themselves, especially when there is a famous death and they all post message of condolence desperately hoping to get mentioned on the news. It really is pathetic.

#doc67
Hmmm, Twitter brands a loser-president's tweets as false or affixes warnings but won't touch a Chinese official's tweet that's patently false and contrived to offend a nation. There's definitely something wrong here.

I only joined Twitter a few months ago to follow Thailand blogger Richard Barrow. In that time I discovered Twitter must be the most useless social medium on the planet, except for Falsebark. I have since discovered Twitter is a very risky activity due to archives of famous people's early stupidities. Twitter et al should come with the warning: Here Be Dragons.
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

The fat greedy bastards will never learn.

Mothballed NT iron ore mines reopen amid soaring demand for steel in China
"If iron ore is pulled into the fray of trade tensions, Mr Murphy is optimistic an alternative market can be found for the iron ore at Roper Bar mine."

B(F)S. Mt Murf will be in the PM's office with Twiggy Forest, BHP and Rio pleading and bribing for Australia to bend over and take it up bum if anything threatens their "super-profits". (<< a recognised economic term these days - coined especially to describe the iron ore miners situation) .

https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020- ... l/12950170
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Re: 'We will be the enemy': China issues stunning threat to Australia

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

atst wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 8:41 am
SternAAlbifrons wrote: Sat Dec 05, 2020 5:45 am ^^^ Now, here is a valid reason for keeping up the hostilities.. >>>

Cheap lobsters on offer for Christmas tables as prices plummet due to China import ban
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020- ... n/12949926
Must be an expensive boat to run if can't make a profit at $30 kilo? Poor fishermen I don't think so.
Very true Atts.
Just this year the WA Gov tried to introduce a scheme for just 10% of the catch to be reserved for the Australian market - at whatever price that market could bear. So australians could afford to eat a crayfish for the first time in nearly 20 years.

The tightly protected, subsidised and favoured huge-dollar lobster industry soon put a stop to that.
They figured aussies would only pay about 2/3 of what the Chinese millionaires would pay.

So for 1/3 of 10% of their huge profit margin they said - Get Stuffed Australia, but not on our lobster.

This is not just a rant at the lobster millionaires. It is a classic example of how ALL the industries who have been making this extraordinary bonanza from China prioritise their $$$ above the national interest.

"Something" needs to be done.
Problem is, all governments always tend to favour the biggest profiteers. It's just the way it goes.
How can we change that? realistically.
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