It'll be with us most likely forever, just like the flu. Get used to it.

I don't know if it will be "worse", but I would expect a large amount of systemic change to take place. Especially in the USA.

I would agree that it won't be a "great" year overall. From what I've read its likely the first vaccines will only provide temporary protection (similar to a flu shot) and given the segment of the population opposed to a vaccine - it makes it likely we'll see less economic activity throughout the year.

I expect Social Security in the US to be in dire straits as tax collections fall. Higher payroll taxes should be expected in a new Democratic controlled congress. Higher personal income taxes. Larger tax credits for children and perhaps direct payments for those earning under 20K. Tons of "feel good" legislation "protecting" every population segment with a hyphenated name. Trumps tax returns made public which will show he gamed the system same as all the other rich folks. Obamacare gets expanded - but similar to Obamacare it just becomes benefits for some with no one paying for them except those that actually pay their own premiums (those folks may simply be unable to continue as family premiums already approaching $2500-$3000 a month.) More people will move to the middle of "nowhere" simply to be allowed to live their lives as they see fit. Unemployment benefits may be nationalized. Will things be better under the Democrats? I doubt it but at least we won't have to listen to Trump spew nonsense every day.

As for the pandemic, it will continue until at least 3rd quarter - and that is IF there is a single shot vaccine that a majority of the population will take. Otherwise I expect it will just be a mess throughout the year. I guess the one good thing is that I read a few days ago we've become much better at treating infections and the mortality rate is way down from earlier in the year.

Internationally, I expect limited travel with tons of restrictions to remain in place through the year. Covid 19 negative tests mandatory when travelling internationally. Airfares will rise. Airlines will declare BK. Boeing/Airbus see reduced demand for several years. And lots and lots of travel related businesses in tourist spots continue to go under.

So yeah, a pretty blah expectation of the new year in a macro sense.

Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.

Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pm

Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.

Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.

I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France where I read they had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?

Back into confinement starting friday, at least until 1st december.
People are rushing to the supermarkets again, with an extra detour to the toys shops.
Jingle bells ho ho ho