Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:51 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 pm

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pm

Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.

Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.

I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France I read had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?

But can the global economy withstand a global shutdown? Many economies have played all the cards they have and now they are hoping for a miracle.

In countries with decent healthcare systems, they should have kept open all the new pop up facilities that were created. Or start creating them very quickly. All Covid-19 patients should be treated there, as best they can. Oxygen treatment, whatever potions of drugs that have been concocted over the last months, and as many ventilators as they can muster. The main hospitals should be kept Covid-19 free as far as possible or many more very preventable deaths will occur due to people being unable to receive treatment for everyday conditions. Currently, in many countries, a hospital is a very dangerous place to be.

And the economies must keep going to pay for it all. Full lockdowns did not work and never will.

I watched with interest as Australia and New Zealand went quite dramatically into total lockdown early with the results seemingly having paid dividends. Yes, the economy took a hit but not as much as it could have by being indecisive and avoiding the inevitable. All indications suggest the total lockdown was very successful here. I'm unsure why you'd suggest full lockdowns did not work and never will when we have evidence to the contrary.

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:13 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:51 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 pm

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pm

Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.

Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.

I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France I read had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?

But can the global economy withstand a global shutdown? Many economies have played all the cards they have and now they are hoping for a miracle.

In countries with decent healthcare systems, they should have kept open all the new pop up facilities that were created. Or start creating them very quickly. All Covid-19 patients should be treated there, as best they can. Oxygen treatment, whatever potions of drugs that have been concocted over the last months, and as many ventilators as they can muster. The main hospitals should be kept Covid-19 free as far as possible or many more very preventable deaths will occur due to people being unable to receive treatment for everyday conditions. Currently, in many countries, a hospital is a very dangerous place to be.

And the economies must keep going to pay for it all. Full lockdowns did not work and never will.

I watched with interest as Australia and New Zealand went quite dramatically into total lockdown early with the results seemingly having paid dividends. Yes, the economy took a hit but not as much as it could have by being indecisive and avoiding the inevitable. All indications suggest the total lockdown was very successful here. I'm unsure why you'd suggest full lockdowns did not work and never will when we have evidence to the contrary.

Because Spain, Italy and France did it very thoroughly, also the UK to some extent, and they are all back to square one. Also, Colombia, a country I managed to avoid getting trapped in by one day back in March, went into full lockdown for months and they have been unable to control it. Most of South America did the same with similar results save for Brazil.

The moment normal social interaction occurs the virus just carries on from where it left off. Countries that have managed to keep it at bay early on have done better, but as long as it is in the country it will rip through it the moment life goes back to 'normal'.

Whatever way you slice it, lockdowns do not kill this virus but they do kill economic activity and cause lasting damage. My concern is that we have yet to see the worst of this and next year, economically, could be much worse than this year.
Much worse...

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:28 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:13 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:51 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 pm

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pm
Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.

I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France I read had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?

But can the global economy withstand a global shutdown? Many economies have played all the cards they have and now they are hoping for a miracle.

In countries with decent healthcare systems, they should have kept open all the new pop up facilities that were created. Or start creating them very quickly. All Covid-19 patients should be treated there, as best they can. Oxygen treatment, whatever potions of drugs that have been concocted over the last months, and as many ventilators as they can muster. The main hospitals should be kept Covid-19 free as far as possible or many more very preventable deaths will occur due to people being unable to receive treatment for everyday conditions. Currently, in many countries, a hospital is a very dangerous place to be.

And the economies must keep going to pay for it all. Full lockdowns did not work and never will.

I watched with interest as Australia and New Zealand went quite dramatically into total lockdown early with the results seemingly having paid dividends. Yes, the economy took a hit but not as much as it could have by being indecisive and avoiding the inevitable. All indications suggest the total lockdown was very successful here. I'm unsure why you'd suggest full lockdowns did not work and never will when we have evidence to the contrary.

Because Spain, Italy and France did it very thoroughly, also the UK to some extent, and they are all back to square one. Also, Colombia, a country I managed to avoid getting trapped in by one day back in March, went into full lockdown for months and they have been unable to control it. Most of South America did the same with similar results save for Brazil.

The moment normal social interaction occurs the virus just carries on from where it left off. Countries that have managed to keep it at bay early on have done better, but as long as it is in the country it will rip through it the moment life goes back to 'normal'.

Whatever way you slice it, lockdowns do not kill this virus but they do kill economic activity and cause lasting damage. My concern is that we have yet to see the worst of this and next year, economically, could be much worse than this year.
Much worse...

I'd argue Spain, Italy and France didn't actually conduct their lockdowns very thoroughly at all.

The virus doesn't move, people move. In that one sentence we have the answer.

It's also been my experience to find economics and money, while important to consider, eventually have to, and do, give way to life.

I suppose we could get into semantics as to what constitutes 'full lockdowns' but my thinking is that people will tolerate it for a while but eventually they will tire of it and not do the right thing. Unless we are in an authoritative state where they weld the front doors shut like the middle kingdom..

So I reckon it would be very difficult to enforce nor do the authorities have the resources to do so..and it will be applied inconsistently around the world.

I would have thought a much more palatable solution would be to mandate mask wearing when going out in public. Again, difficult to enforce 100% but more likely to be accepted...especially if the campaign was backed up with easing lockdowns and opening borders and allowed travel.

Dr Fauci amongst others is arguing that.. https://www.businessinsider.com.au/fauc ... ic-2020-10 Russia is going to do it https://www.businessinsider.com.au/russ ... us-2020-10

At least it would buy more time, relieve pressure on hospitals and allow people to go about their business. An inconvenience worth tolerating imo

Here's a recent authoritative article about the likelihood and efficacy of a vaccine..it's a gloomy outlook from Kate Bingham, the chair of the UK government's vaccine taskforce https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/fir ... 569ji.html

Regarding the UK in2021 I think it will be much worse, they can test as many people as they want, they can put regions or the whole country into whatever tier they want, but without either compliance or enforcement the situation won't get any better, it's amazing what you see in the UK

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/h ... e-22907955

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:40 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:28 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 2:13 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:51 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 pm

I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France I read had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?

But can the global economy withstand a global shutdown? Many economies have played all the cards they have and now they are hoping for a miracle.

In countries with decent healthcare systems, they should have kept open all the new pop up facilities that were created. Or start creating them very quickly. All Covid-19 patients should be treated there, as best they can. Oxygen treatment, whatever potions of drugs that have been concocted over the last months, and as many ventilators as they can muster. The main hospitals should be kept Covid-19 free as far as possible or many more very preventable deaths will occur due to people being unable to receive treatment for everyday conditions. Currently, in many countries, a hospital is a very dangerous place to be.

And the economies must keep going to pay for it all. Full lockdowns did not work and never will.

I watched with interest as Australia and New Zealand went quite dramatically into total lockdown early with the results seemingly having paid dividends. Yes, the economy took a hit but not as much as it could have by being indecisive and avoiding the inevitable. All indications suggest the total lockdown was very successful here. I'm unsure why you'd suggest full lockdowns did not work and never will when we have evidence to the contrary.

Because Spain, Italy and France did it very thoroughly, also the UK to some extent, and they are all back to square one. Also, Colombia, a country I managed to avoid getting trapped in by one day back in March, went into full lockdown for months and they have been unable to control it. Most of South America did the same with similar results save for Brazil.

The moment normal social interaction occurs the virus just carries on from where it left off. Countries that have managed to keep it at bay early on have done better, but as long as it is in the country it will rip through it the moment life goes back to 'normal'.

Whatever way you slice it, lockdowns do not kill this virus but they do kill economic activity and cause lasting damage. My concern is that we have yet to see the worst of this and next year, economically, could be much worse than this year.
Much worse...

I'd argue Spain, Italy and France didn't actually conduct their lockdowns very thoroughly at all.

The virus doesn't move, people move. In that one sentence we have the answer.

It's also been my experience to find economics and money, while important to consider, eventually have to, and do, give way to life.

Mostly agree with K-f Hb.
I think that the European lockdowns did what they were supposed to do - temporarily ease the health care situation in their countries. But then, coming out of lockdown was a mess - along came the summer holidays, and everyone wants their holiday - especially after a lockdown - and people just got together because they are social animals. Families got together and didn't protect themselves, because ... family.
A friend from Spain was telling me how everyone wears a mask in the streets, then takes them off when they are inside together, because they feel ok with people they know. It's human to trust our friends, but covid can be transmitted by anyone, friend or foe.
I don't have any answers. This whole thing is new to us all.

My advice, lift weights, run every day, drink red and bunker down with a good lady. This shits only just begun.