After learning that the Cambodian govt hasn’t secured any doses of vaccines in the pipeline for next year -
( https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50765563/n ... ny-supply/ ), I’m wondering what 2021 will look like for the Kingdom.

- Sealed borders through 2022, oblitering the economy but keeping covid out?

- Sealed borders but covid gets in anyway, triggering extreme lockdown measures and a collapse in hospital care?

- Covid gets in, population realises that they’ve a median age of 25, with 80% under age 40, and the fatality rate ends up being background noise compared to other causes?

- something else?

I think the idea that Covid has not been in Cambodia is completely fanciful. There were people coming and going from China on a daily basis until April !

It seems obvious to me that it has been there just as it has been most other places, but for some unknown reason it is not as dangerous in Cambodia as it is elsewhere. I don't see anything changing in 2021.

I don’t think anyone’s claiming zero cases, but if it were endemic then we’d definitely know about it. Even if deaths are low the symptoms in non-fatal cases are pretty clear.

nerdlinger wrote:I don’t think anyone’s claiming zero cases, but if it were endemic then we’d definitely know about it. Even if deaths are low the symptoms in non-fatal cases are pretty clear.

The only people tested multiple times, are those flying into Cambodia, so who knows?

Which is a shame, because some literature suggests that hot humid , weather, reduces virus transmission, as well as other factors.

Mass testing is needed to actually know.

Also non-fatal cases, and sequelae from recovery aren’t going to make the news.

Hordes of Khmer with PTSD or generalized weakness aren’t going to go to the hospitals. And on Facebook, there’s tons who report vague stuff like pi bak chet, and things like that. Even before the virus hit.

2021 will be more of the same.

Just hope the country reopens and visa on arrival, tourism and trade will return.

Or else CEO News will report more down and out foreigners being collected by the police.

Hopefully it will be a quiet year.

Just one dumb guy's opinion that Cambodia did have some infections previously. But the overall youth, living outdoors (relatively speaking), lack of a lot of packed public transportation, low population density, and the fact the initial virus was contagious but not as much as it supposedly is when it migrated through Europe to North America - all contributed to a low number of reported infections. Of course, when you hardly test anyone you will have a low number of reported cases.

Since those that know say the virus has mutated and is much more contagious than it was initially I'd expect most countries without infections to be very cautious about opening up. Looks like Europe and US and parts of Latin America are seeing rising cases and its only October. Can only hope Cambodia manages to avoid this - though recent reported events like the idiot running around SR certainly doesn't build confidence.

Its really amazing how this virus has damaged the way of life of billions of people. I think 2021 will be another long year unfortunately.

TWY wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 1:40 am Hopefully it will be a quiet year.

Just one dumb guy's opinion that Cambodia did have some infections previously. But the overall youth, living outdoors (relatively speaking), lack of a lot of packed public transportation, low population density, and the fact the initial virus was contagious but not as much as it supposedly is when it migrated through Europe to North America - all contributed to a low number of reported infections. Of course, when you hardly test anyone you will have a low number of reported cases.

Since those that know say the virus has mutated and is much more contagious than it was initially I'd expect most countries without infections to be very cautious about opening up. Looks like Europe and US and parts of Latin America are seeing rising cases and its only October. Can only hope Cambodia manages to avoid this - though recent reported events like the idiot running around SR certainly doesn't build confidence.

Its really amazing how this virus has damaged the way of life of billions of people. I think 2021 will be another long year unfortunately.

It's only me who believes that is it ? There must be other dumbsters out there ?

Btw, the whole remaining part of your paragraph seems to support the view of the dumb guy you're criticising. You can't call me dumb for believing that Cambodiia previously had infections, and then go on to explain yourself that there were infections and giving reasons why they didn't have the effect they did elsewhere. Well, you can obviously, but it's a bit weird. You're basically calling me dumb for saying something and then saying the same thing yourself from the looks of it.

You also reach the same conclusion as me !! haha. Of course, I also share your wish that Cambodia continues to avoid the worst of this, and I keep my fingers very firmly crossed that that is the case. I'm pretty confident on Cambodia's behalf based on what's happened to date (I take the point about the virus mutating but there were deaths in Wuhan right from the start), but I agree that you can't be too careful.

really comes down to when/if we get a vaccine, though I expect Cambodia will open the door to Chinese tourism, vaccine or not.

On mutations (as i unnerstand the lit, anyway)

It is mutating at a lower rate than most virus.
The changes seem to have had little significant effect on it's characteristics.
There is some evidence that the latter strains are slightly more contagious, and similar for visa versa.
No real evidence of differing mortality rates.
So far ^^^

Next year..??
latest..
"More than 6 months into the pandemic, the virus’ potential to evolve in a nastier direction—or, if we’re lucky, become more benign—is unclear. In part that’s because it changes more slowly than most other viruses, giving virologists fewer mutations to study"

"The United Kingdom’s COVID-19 Genomics Consortium has sequenced 30,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, allowing scientists to compare how fast 43 lineages carrying the G614 mutation and 20 with D614 spread.
They estimated that the former grew 1.22 times faster than the latter—but the statistical significance was low. “Evidence for a difference is weak and if it does exist, the estimated effect is moderate,”

They reckon one of the possible reasons for slow mutation - is because it has not yet run into any obstacles like a vaccine, herd immunity, individual immunity.
As soon as that happens it is more likely to start shape-shifting. which is a bit of a worry.

On the pos+ side most viruses usually mutate into a more benign form, but often more contagious.
(Darwin will tell you why)

crob wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:58 am really comes down to when/if we get a vaccine, though I expect Cambodia will open the door to Chinese tourism, vaccine or not.

The question has already been asked, the poor hand is out, who can refuse.

popping in wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:34 am

TWY wrote: ↑Sun Oct 11, 2020 1:40 am Hopefully it will be a quiet year.

Just one dumb guy's opinion that Cambodia did have some infections previously. But the overall youth, living outdoors (relatively speaking), lack of a lot of packed public transportation, low population density, and the fact the initial virus was contagious but not as much as it supposedly is when it migrated through Europe to North America - all contributed to a low number of reported infections. Of course, when you hardly test anyone you will have a low number of reported cases.

Since those that know say the virus has mutated and is much more contagious than it was initially I'd expect most countries without infections to be very cautious about opening up. Looks like Europe and US and parts of Latin America are seeing rising cases and its only October. Can only hope Cambodia manages to avoid this - though recent reported events like the idiot running around SR certainly doesn't build confidence.

Its really amazing how this virus has damaged the way of life of billions of people. I think 2021 will be another long year unfortunately.

It's only me who believes that is it ? There must be other dumbsters out there ?

Btw, the whole remaining part of your paragraph seems to support the view of the dumb guy you're criticising. You can't call me dumb for believing that Cambodiia previously had infections, and then go on to explain yourself that there were infections and giving reasons why they didn't have the effect they did elsewhere. Well, you can obviously, but it's a bit weird. You're basically calling me dumb for saying something and then saying the same thing yourself from the looks of it.

You also reach the same conclusion as me !! haha. Of course, I also share your wish that Cambodia continues to avoid the worst of this, and I keep my fingers very firmly crossed that that is the case. I'm pretty confident on Cambodia's behalf based on what's happened to date (I take the point about the virus mutating but there were deaths in Wuhan right from the start), but I agree that
you can't be too careful.

---------

I wasn't referencing you nor calling you any names. I was replying to the original post and since I was offering my prediction (which will undoubtedly be wrong) I was referencing myself as "one dumb guy".