Teddy1 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:13 am WHAT ABOUT PLATINUM??? My Jeweller said its going to jump up. Any thoughts??

Cambodian jeweller? Is he referring to platinum or to platin which is 14-18k gold? See this thread for platin:
post431021.html?hilit=gold%20shops#p431021

If you really mean platinum. The answer is it should do well. It's a commodity and it can ride gold's coat tails and it's well below its all time high.

Teddy1 wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:13 am
WHAT ABOUT PLATINUM??? My Jeweller said its going to jump up. Any thoughts??

Btw, if it is a Western jeweller, don't buy from him unless you are buying pure metal near the spot price.
There is a newish company called Mene. They sell jewellery online and they price it according to the current spot price plus a fixed making fee. They have a good rep in the USA for offering a much better deal than the old-fashioned jewellers which rarely talk about the weight or gold value of the items they sell.
Anyway, Mene sell a standard 24k gold band at the gold spot price (currently $591), plus their making fee of $236.
My gold shop in PP charges $3 for the making plus a 3% spread on the gold.
The gold price is the same the world over, but the making charges most certainly are not.

armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:59 am

yongchi wrote: ↑Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:56 pm
You are right, 0.589%. Even worse.

Re declining USD:
Isn’t the declining USD related to the declining rates?
I would say there is certainly an element of “declining confidence in the U.S.”
But if the FED prints money (e.g., purchases financial assets) they drive down rates. Other market participants including foreigners sell those USD denominated financial assets.
Where does the liquidity go?
Part goes into the U.S. stock market (perhaps also real estate) and part goes into non USD assets?
So net outflow?

The process I use is fairly simple. It has been rigorously back-tested so I know it works. I leave all the theorizing about things beyond that process to people more clever than I. A lot of them ran hedge funds that have closed in the last decade.

I am definitely for keeping things as simple as possible.

As I understand you, you are buying treasuries as a trading vehicle rather than to keep them and collect the coupon payments for the duration of the bond.

You mentioned it is a fairly simple process.

How do you decide when to get out of treasuries, i.e. it is time to sell?

yongchi wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:04 pm
As I understand you, you are buying treasuries as a trading vehicle rather than to keep them and collect the coupon payments for the duration of the bond.

You mentioned it is a fairly simple process.

How do you decide when to get out of treasuries, i.e. it is time to sell?

As of now I am happy to hold all durations up to 20 years, and also TIPS. Buying more on dips.
I'll know it's time to sell when the firm I pay lets me know! That is likely to be when US GDP is accelerating in a healthy and strong way.
But do build a portfolio, not good to go all in one thing.
So, you can add gold, silver, GDX, Utilities, REITS, tech, China tech, Taiwan and the currencies I already mentioned, and AUD and CAD.

armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:07 pm

yongchi wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:04 pm
As I understand you, you are buying treasuries as a trading vehicle rather than to keep them and collect the coupon payments for the duration of the bond.

You mentioned it is a fairly simple process.

How do you decide when to get out of treasuries, i.e. it is time to sell?

As of now I am happy to hold all durations up to 20 years, and also TIPS. Buying more on dips.
I'll know it's time to sell when the firm I pay lets me know! That is likely to be when US GDP is accelerating in a healthy and strong way.
But do build a portfolio, not good to go all in one thing.
So, you can add gold, silver, GDX, Utilities, REITS, tech, China tech, Taiwan and the currencies I already mentioned, and AUD and CAD.

Thank you for sharing. I was just a bit puzzled by the treasuries.

I had been looking at gold, currencies, local currency Asian bonds, and shares. Basically anything in which I believe liquidity flows as they ramp up the printing press.
I buy primarily to keep, but I do rebalance. (Haven’t found a low stress trading strategy yet.)

armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:07 pm

yongchi wrote: ↑Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:04 pm
As I understand you, you are buying treasuries as a trading vehicle rather than to keep them and collect the coupon payments for the duration of the bond.

You mentioned it is a fairly simple process.

How do you decide when to get out of treasuries, i.e. it is time to sell?

As of now I am happy to hold all durations up to 20 years, and also TIPS. Buying more on dips.
I'll know it's time to sell when the firm I pay lets me know! That is likely to be when US GDP is accelerating in a healthy and strong way.
But do build a portfolio, not good to go all in one thing.
So, you can add gold, silver, GDX, Utilities, REITS, tech, China tech, Taiwan and the currencies I already mentioned, and AUD and CAD.

Thought you might be interested in this...

Has the Dollar Started Its Long Decline? by Jim O'Neil, Chair at Chatham House and formerly of Goldman Sachs fame.

Ultimately, the dollar’s dominance cannot persistently outweigh the relative decline of the US economy in the world. At some point, it will start to be replaced by something else. But don’t confuse that with where the dollar’s price is heading against other currencies.


https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/com ... -241803361#

I am enjoying watching the GDP/USD at the moment. Breaking out above 1.30 ceiling and holding, it now looks to be progressing nicely towards the 1.35 area. I don't need to buy yet, but if it get's there in the next month I might have to dive in.

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:46 am
Thought you might be interested in this...

Has the Dollar Started Its Long Decline? by Jim O'Neil, Chair at Chatham House and formerly of Goldman Sachs fame.

Ultimately, the dollar’s dominance cannot persistently outweigh the relative decline of the US economy in the world. At some point, it will start to be replaced by something else. But don’t confuse that with where the dollar’s price is heading against other currencies.


https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/com ... -241803361#

I am enjoying watching the GDP/USD at the moment. Breaking out above 1.30 ceiling and holding, it now looks to be progressing nicely towards the 1.35 area. I don't need to buy yet, but if it get's there in the next month I might have to dive in.

I love these experts who are able to see far into the future.
Maybe he's right , maybe he isn't.
Far better idea to spend one's time looking at today's actual data. For now, I'm still bearish the dollar. Bullish treasuries, gold, commodities, tech, China tech, JPY and CHF.