Obscure outlook for SE Asian tourism revival

phuketrichard · Post by **phuketrichard** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:32 pm

interesting read and i tend to agree, welcome the chinese

Region needs tourists, namely Chinese ones, to revive virus-hit economies but pre-pandemic mass-market approach needs a reboot

Cambodia’s Ministry of Tourism this week estimated that the sector, worth around $4.3 billion in 2018, will lose $3 billion in 2020. Tourism numbers in Vietnam were down 98% year on year in May. Thailand, projected to see an economic contraction of at least -5.3% this year, officially estimates its tourism-related losses could be over $40 billion.

In 2018, tourism accounted for 32% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia, 20% in Thailand and 9% in Vietnam, according to UNWTO. The sector accounts for 6.7% of employment in Cambodia and around 9% in Thailand and Vietnam.

The Southeast Asian states have been fortunate from a health perspective. Thailand, Vietnam and Cambodia have all reported relatively small numbers of Covid-19 infections compared to regional neighbors. So far there have been only 58 deaths in Thailand, and reportedly none in Cambodia and Vietnam, according to government figures.

That should work in their favor once international travel recommences and tourists seek perceived as safe lightly infected countries. All international flights to Thailand are banned until at least June 30.

March 16th 2019 vs March 5th 2020

It noted other “worrying trends” in Cambodia’s tourism sector, including a low level of repeat visits, with just 21.3% in 2018 compared to almost 70% in neighboring Thailand.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/obscure-o ... d7ff190aa4

nemo · Post by **nemo** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:35 pm

Perhaps John Chinaman has less money for tourist junkets just now.

Post by **Clutch Cargo** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:45 pm

In 2018, tourism accounted for 32% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia, 20% in Thailand and 9% in Vietnam, according to UNWTO. The sector accounts for 6.7% of employment in Cambodia and around 9% in Thailand and Vietnam.

Without any facts, I used to think Thailand was more dependent on tourism than Cambodia. So there you go...32%...that's a huge hit to Cambodia then.

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:57 pm

clutchcargo wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:45 pm
In 2018, tourism accounted for 32% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia, 20% in Thailand and 9% in Vietnam, according to UNWTO. The sector accounts for 6.7% of employment in Cambodia and around 9% in Thailand and Vietnam.
Without any facts, I used to think Thailand was more dependent on tourism than Cambodia. So there you go...32%...that's a huge hit to Cambodia then.

Plus another 30% of GDP in their garment sector, the recovery of which is out of their control and will only come back when foreigners start spending again.

How long before unemployment causes more harm than the bug?

rsc72 · Post by **rsc72** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:03 pm

The first SE country to fully reopen I think will reap the rewards by getting a ton on tourists. Then feeling left out other countries will reopen. From what I've been reading my hunch it will be Vietnam.

hunter8 · Post by **hunter8** » Wed Jun 10, 2020 10:33 pm

rsc72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:03 pm The first SE country to fully reopen I think will reap the rewards by getting a ton on tourists. Then feeling left out other countries will reopen. From what I've been reading my hunch it will be Vietnam.

Looking at how strict the quarantine in Vn was, and fully reopen? Why was all that sacrifice? I mean, all countries eventually will have to ask themselves that question. But achieving a record of zero deaths and what, only two hundred detected infections and fully reopen to disease-stricken world?

This virus is here to stay with us forever unless they stop testing for it. So how would anyone reopen? That would be a U-turn in policy and the old policy left suspended hard to explain. Even western politicians have a hard time thinking how to save face.

newkidontheblock · Post by **newkidontheblock** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:03 am

Doc67 wrote:Plus another 30% of GDP in their garment sector, the recovery of which is out of their control and will only come back when foreigners start spending again.

At this time, any tourist who books a 3 week vacation in Cambodia has only 1-2 days to actually spend it on Cambodia. The other 16 or so days of potential spending at Angkor Wat, Phnom Penh, etc., all spent on quarantine. The pork rice sellers are probably making a fortune at 10 dollars a pork rice bowl to a tourist in quarantine.

Before the virus hit, there was a growing trend in western countries - more singles, especially older singles. More singles, means more dating. More dating, means more need to buy new clothes, jewelry, make-up, etc., affecting a lot of industries. After the vaccine, the trend to doing everything on line might stay, which means less face to face dating overall.

phuketrichard · Post by **phuketrichard** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:40 am

rsc72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:03 pm The first SE country to fully reopen I think will reap the rewards by getting a ton on tourists. Then feeling left out other countries will reopen. From what I've been reading my hunch it will be Vietnam.

100% disagree,
out side of thailand, i doubt many tourists travel to SE Asia to visit ONLY 1 country.
Excluding the Aussies heading to Bali
and excluding the chinese who seem to do multiple group trips/year to each specific country as the article indicates

BUT really ,who knows how things will be post covid

Bluenose · Post by **Bluenose** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 7:56 am

In 2018, tourism accounted for 32% of gross domestic product (GDP) in Cambodia, 20% in Thailand and 9% in Vietnam, according to UNWTO. The sector accounts for 6.7% of employment in Cambodia and around 9% in Thailand and Vietnam

The statistics seem to suggest we have an incredibly efficient workforce/tourism industry compared to our neighbours!

hanno · Post by **hanno** » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:46 am

rsc72 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 10, 2020 9:03 pm The first SE country to fully reopen I think will reap the rewards by getting a ton on tourists. Then feeling left out other countries will reopen. From what I've been reading my hunch it will be Vietnam.

Not going to happen anytime soon. What I expect to happen that Vietnam will first open "safe corridors" with countries that have controlled Corona virus, NZ and OZ come to mind. For other countries, it will be a mandatory 2-week quarantine for a long time to come. Vietnam would be crazy to throw overboard all the great efforts it made.

Obscure outlook for SE Asian tourism revival

Obscure outlook for SE Asian tourism revival

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