The Future of Travel

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:06 pm

Clemen wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:09 pm
hanno wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am @x@xandreu I think the cost of social distancing in planes will be passed on to the punters, but let’s see.
Frontier airlines in the US is already doing this, "Frontier Airlines, though, is going all in on the industry's worst nickel-and-diming impulses and is happy to let you gain a few precious inches of space from your neighbor and their bodily fluids—for an additional fee."
https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... n-flights/

I think they are onto something here. I would happily pay a premium to keep the middle seat empty on a 3-3-3 configured aircraft. Longhaul $100 each way? Yes please! Add in the guy the other side being prepared to pay the same and the airlines can match those who want to pay with any empty seats, so if there are any empties, you get them. Some issues are with unavailability spare space, but that can be fixed with guaranteed empties at a higher price, and 'if available' empties at another price. Economy will become much more pleasant without the $500+ uplift for a premium economy seat. Downside is if the plane is half empty anyway and you were the schmuck who paid extra for space that is free to everyone else - but that's still a much more pleasant flight than a 100% rammed cabin.

I can't wait...

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:20 pm

It's really simple, the operation to produce and distribute millions of cheap, fast, reliable tests to check for active COVID-19 infections on the spot (not in a lab) is not going to happen anytime soon.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:23 pm

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:06 pm
Clemen wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:09 pm
hanno wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am @x@xandreu I think the cost of social distancing in planes will be passed on to the punters, but let’s see.
Frontier airlines in the US is already doing this, "Frontier Airlines, though, is going all in on the industry's worst nickel-and-diming impulses and is happy to let you gain a few precious inches of space from your neighbor and their bodily fluids—for an additional fee."
https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... n-flights/
I think they are onto something here. I would happily pay a premium to keep the middle seat empty on a 3-3-3 configured aircraft. Longhaul $100 each way? Yes please! Add in the guy the other side being prepared to pay the same and the airlines can match those who want to pay with any empty seats, so if there are any empties, you get them. Some issues are with unavailability spare space, but that can be fixed with guaranteed empties at a higher price, and 'if available' empties at another price. Economy will become much more pleasant without the $500+ uplift for a premium economy seat. Downside is if the plane is half empty anyway and you were the schmuck who paid extra for space that is free to everyone else - but that's still a much more pleasant flight than a 100% rammed cabin.

I can't wait...

If you leave all middle seats empty they lose 33% revenue. Could parlty be compensated by cargo maybe, but still..... 33% revenue loss means 30% higher ticker prices. 100$ one ways seems very optimistic.

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:35 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:23 pm
Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:06 pm
Clemen wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 12:09 pm
hanno wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am @x@xandreu I think the cost of social distancing in planes will be passed on to the punters, but let’s see.
Frontier airlines in the US is already doing this, "Frontier Airlines, though, is going all in on the industry's worst nickel-and-diming impulses and is happy to let you gain a few precious inches of space from your neighbor and their bodily fluids—for an additional fee."
https://arstechnica.com/information-tec ... n-flights/
I think they are onto something here. I would happily pay a premium to keep the middle seat empty on a 3-3-3 configured aircraft. Longhaul $100 each way? Yes please! Add in the guy the other side being prepared to pay the same and the airlines can match those who want to pay with any empty seats, so if there are any empties, you get them. Some issues are with unavailability spare space, but that can be fixed with guaranteed empties at a higher price, and 'if available' empties at another price. Economy will become much more pleasant without the $500+ uplift for a premium economy seat. Downside is if the plane is half empty anyway and you were the schmuck who paid extra for space that is free to everyone else - but that's still a much more pleasant flight than a 100% rammed cabin.

I can't wait...
If you leave all middle seats empty they lose 33% revenue. Could parlty be compensated by cargo maybe, but still..... 33% revenue loss means 30% higher ticker prices. 100$ one ways seems very optimistic.

Well, 33% of cheap seat revenue, not front of plane revenue. Also, cargo is not affected. But, on the downside, 33% loss of revenue needs a 50% increase for the remaining 67%.

My point is that with middle seats being sought after and possibly up for sale if there are going to be empty seats, they airlines could sell them off for good money to those who really valued them. I agree $100 is cheap, not sure what I would pay but probably $250 on a $600 long haul fare. It's my biggest fear on any economy flight; being stuck next to someone big who encroaches on my seat.

rexwell · Post by **rexwell** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:41 pm

If each middle seat was removed, thus saving 40kg per seat and 9 removed per row would save 360kg per row. Multiply that by 50 rows and you have a weight saving of 18000 kg
Less weight means less fuel thus cheaper tickets. If only it was that easy.

phuketrichard · Post by **phuketrichard** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:43 pm

Random thoughts;

what happens with the plane with 3-4-3 configuration?...that seems to be what I end of flying on long hauls to the states

Airbus 321

Boing 777

premium economy is 2-4-2 configuration , so how do they do social distancing?
Business class, side by side, so put up a clear window between seats like restaurants are doing?
will someone clean the toilet EVERY time someone uses it?
How will they do food on long haul flights?

Only reasonable Solution;
Testing ahead of time, (say maximum 48 hours) before you fly, an need present this certificate when you checkin
Until they develop fast accurate testing which means showing up 4-5 hours before a flight?

Until a vaccine is developed and distributed world wide

Ryan754326 · Post by **Ryan754326** » Thu May 07, 2020 4:53 pm

SternAAlbifrons wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:50 pm
Ryan754326 wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 1:23 pm I feel like a quiet majority are starting to see through the panic. If you take the over 70 demographic out of the statistics,
"If you take the over 70 demographic out of the statistics"
You can't, Ryan.
But you have to dismiss them as being of little value if you are being completely honest in pursuing this argument.

"see through the panic"
Personally, call me old fashioned, i reckon a 70 yr old life is as worthy as a 20 yr old's.
And thank the Stars, that is exactly why my two home countries (Oz and NZ) will not let people fly right now. To absolutely ensure we will not have our parents and grandparents dropping like flies.

No "panic" - just a cool-headed decision to protect those we love, admire and give full human value to.

I don’t have to dismiss anything. My 84 year old grandmother’s life is very valuable to me, and I’m sure that if she were over 100, I would still consider her life to be every bit as valuable, but we have to accept that everyone will have to die from something eventually. A majority of the people who are dying from Covid19 have already exceeded the average life expectancy in their respective countries, and likely would have died from something else already, had they been living just 50 years ago.

The over 70 demographic are free to stay locked up inside forever if they choose to do so, but they shouldn’t forget that it’s the working-age people who pay the taxes that are necessary to keep their pensions coming in, and to pay for the socialized medical care that allows them to live longer and longer lives.

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Thu May 07, 2020 5:25 pm

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 4:43 pm Random thoughts;

what happens with the plane with 3-4-3 configuration?...that seems to be what I end of flying on long hauls to the states

Airbus 321

Boing 777

premium economy is 2-4-2 configuration , so how do they do social distancing?
Business class, side by side, so put up a clear window between seats like restaurants are doing?
will someone clean the toilet EVERY time someone uses it?
How will they do food on long haul flights?

Only reasonable Solution;
Testing ahead of time, (say maximum 48 hours) before you fly, an need present this certificate when you checkin
Until they develop fast accurate testing which means showing up 4-5 hours before a flight?

Until a vaccine is developed and distributed world wide

Well, bring into service 3-3-3 aircraft first. When 3-4-3's come back the DEFG seats are used for families and groups of 3 and 4 (who are already not isolating from themselves) and put them into the middle section only, no choice. If the is a 3, then just one of the middle seats is left empty. The ABC and HJK seats are for solo travellers and couples.

Business class can be fixed by a plastic screen on older side by side configurations (rare) but all modern biz class are in pod configuration and so are ok already.

I do think the idea of social isolation of planes will have to be quietly abandoned. A mix of smoke and mirrors will be deployed to make it look good and an all encompassing waiver for the airlines for any infections caught aboard. You wanna fly? You take the risks. Fair enough.

rogerrabbit · Post by **rogerrabbit** » Thu May 07, 2020 5:46 pm

hanno wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am @x@xandreu I think the cost of social distancing in planes will be passed on to the punters, but let’s see.

Social distancing will not last for long. Once quick tests and vaccinations are available there is no need for social distancing. Meanwhile airlines are desperate to get even some money coming in, get people back to planes and travelling so tickets will be cheap in near future too.

hanno · Post by **hanno** » Thu May 07, 2020 6:11 pm

rogerrabbit wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 5:46 pm
hanno wrote: ↑Thu May 07, 2020 11:33 am @x@xandreu I think the cost of social distancing in planes will be passed on to the punters, but let’s see.
Social distancing will not last for long. Once quick tests and vaccinations are available there is no need for social distancing. Meanwhile airlines are desperate to get even some money coming in, get people back to planes and travelling so tickets will be cheap in near future too.

I am not quite that optimistic. And for airlines it might be cheaper to leave the planes on the ground that operate them at 50% capacity.

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