NZ, Australia - into winter with Covid-19

Ryan754326 · Post by **Ryan754326** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:36 pm

I really hope I’m wrong about this, but I predict that Australia and NZ will be among the very last countries to beat covid.
As we’ve seen in other countries, 70-80% of the population being vaccinated is not enough to stop cases from getting out of control, and these other countries have at least some level, if not a substantial level, of immunity in the population from recovered cases. Australia and NZ have virtually none.
I expect that Australia and NZ will have to vaccinate a much higher proportion of the population to see the same levels of immunity that other countries have achieved, and even if 100% of the population is vaccinated, they could see more breakthrough cases than expected, because they’ll be relying strictly on vaccines, rather than a mix of vaccines and natural immunity.

Like I said, I hope I’m very wrong about this, but when I look at the case numbers in the UK, where they claim that 95% of adults have antibodies, I’m pretty skeptical that Australia can open its doors when they reach their vaccination targets, and not have a spike in cases like every other country has had.

Railroad · Post by **Railroad** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:20 pm

Ryan754326 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:36 pm I really hope I’m wrong about this, but I predict that Australia and NZ will be among the very last countries to beat covid.

Why do you hope you're wrong about this?

Ryan754326 · Post by **Ryan754326** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:42 pm

Railroad wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 4:20 pm
Why do you hope you're wrong about this?

Because I’d hate to see Australia or NZ have an explosion of cases as soon as they try to open up, after all of the draconian lockdowns they’ve put themselves through.

Post by **Clutch Cargo** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:01 pm

Ryan754326 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:36 pm I really hope I’m wrong about this, but I predict that Australia and NZ will be among the very last countries to beat covid.
As we’ve seen in other countries, 70-80% of the population being vaccinated is not enough to stop cases from getting out of control, and these other countries have at least some level, if not a substantial level, of immunity in the population from recovered cases. Australia and NZ have virtually none.
I expect that Australia and NZ will have to vaccinate a much higher proportion of the population to see the same levels of immunity that other countries have achieved, and even if 100% of the population is vaccinated, they could see more breakthrough cases than expected, because they’ll be relying strictly on vaccines, rather than a mix of vaccines and natural immunity.

Like I said, I hope I’m very wrong about this, but when I look at the case numbers in the UK, where they claim that 95% of adults have antibodies, I’m pretty skeptical that Australia can open its doors when they reach their vaccination targets, and not have a spike in cases like every other country has had.

No surprise there. They went on 'zero covid, covid elimination' and 'island fortress' policies with very tough border restrictions..so much so that the population got complacent such that they thought 'no covid here, no need for vaccine'.

Then they scared the sh*t out of people with the blood clot issue with their primary vaccine of choice ie AZ (even though the risks are very low).

Hence the vaccine uptake hesitancy.

Then, primarily due to a number of factors:

the Delta outbreaks which they couldn't control in Sydney and Melbourne
people's weariness with lockdowns and travel restrictions
cost to community and business
adverse affects re mental health
realisation that they would be left behind re opening up vis a vie other western countries

did they realise their earlier policies were unsustainable and doing more harm than good, and hence, did a back flip on urging people to vaccinate and urging young people to take the AZ vaccine. Now there is no more talk from the PM about 'we don't want to let this thing in' with rather, 'we have to learn to live with it'. There is an election coming up and he wants to be seen as having saved many lives and now opening up the country as a saviour. 180 degree change of tune in just the last 2 months.

And now people are belatedly responding accordingly and vaccinations rates are quickly catching up. The feds want to open the doors with 70-80% however I suspect the rogue states of WA and QLD may not comply and will delay it. Will have to wait and see.

atst · Post by **atst** » Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:59 pm

Railroad wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:57 am
atst wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:52 am
And the government wonders why people get clinical..
cynical?

as in Diogenes?

Thanks for the spell check yes cynical was what I meant , bloody google word fixing. I might add there were quite a few angry people questioning the government today about the decision to let them go play when others can't visit sick relatives or attend funerals

Post by **Clutch Cargo** » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:56 pm

Say goodbye to the gov't 'plan' to open up once 70-80% of people are vaccinated..

Delta more deadly than national plan assumes

The research team whose work underpins Australia’s pandemic exit strategy believes the Delta strain of the virus is significantly more deadly than they assumed when the national plan was adopted.

While the science has been settled for a while about Delta being more infectious than previous variants of concern, at the time a Doherty Institute-led team was commissioned to provide COVID modelling for national cabinet it was less clear whether it was also likely to cause more severe illness.

That debate appears at an end, with both the Doherty and the Burnet institutes adopting the findings of a Canadian study showing unvaccinated people infected with Delta are nearly twice as likely to end up in intensive care and one-and-a-half times more likely to die as people who caught the Alpha variant.

The Doherty modelling, prepared in July and updated last month, assumed Delta was no more virulent than Alpha.

University of Melbourne Professor James McCaw, a member of the Doherty team, confirmed that assumption would be ditched.

“At the time the Doherty work was done it was very clear that Delta spread more quickly and that is incorporated in the work, but the evidence that Delta was more severe in terms of clinical outcomes was either scant or certainly, unsettled in the international community,” he said on Tuesday.

Full: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nation ... 58t9c.html

violet · Post by **violet** » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:21 pm

clutchcargo wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:56 pm Say goodbye to the gov't 'plan' to open up once 70-80% of people are vaccinated..

Delta more deadly than national plan assumes

The research team whose work underpins Australia’s pandemic exit strategy believes the Delta strain of the virus is significantly more deadly than they assumed when the national plan was adopted.

While the science has been settled for a while about Delta being more infectious than previous variants of concern, at the time a Doherty Institute-led team was commissioned to provide COVID modelling for national cabinet it was less clear whether it was also likely to cause more severe illness.

That debate appears at an end, with both the Doherty and the Burnet institutes adopting the findings of a Canadian study showing unvaccinated people infected with Delta are nearly twice as likely to end up in intensive care and one-and-a-half times more likely to die as people who caught the Alpha variant.

The Doherty modelling, prepared in July and updated last month, assumed Delta was no more virulent than Alpha.

University of Melbourne Professor James McCaw, a member of the Doherty team, confirmed that assumption would be ditched.

“At the time the Doherty work was done it was very clear that Delta spread more quickly and that is incorporated in the work, but the evidence that Delta was more severe in terms of clinical outcomes was either scant or certainly, unsettled in the international community,” he said on Tuesday.

Full: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/nation ... 58t9c.html

Things are going to get ugly.

Post by **Username Taken** » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:04 pm

violet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:21 pm Things are going to get ugly.

Tear gas deployed on protestors at Shrine of Remembrance | Coronavirus

ego bibere nimis · Post by **ego bibere nimis** » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:17 pm

Username Taken wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:04 pm
violet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:21 pm Things are going to get ugly.
Tear gas deployed on protestors at Shrine of Remembrance | Coronavirus

Protesting (with violence) at the Shrine of Remembrance? WTF? Pretty sure the guys and girls that went off to ww1, ww2, Korean and Vietnam wars would have much preferred lockdown at home with Netflix rather than going to bloody war. These people are part of current generations that are the softest and most pampered people to ever walk the face of this earth. They need to man up. On top of that, enjoy the $750 a WEEK (yes, a week) that the Govt. is handing out because you can't work due to lockdowns. Embarrassed to be an Australian.

Post by **Clutch Cargo** » Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:09 pm

If the protestors want to get their message across better, I would have thought they'd be smarter doing it in front of where policy for the lockdown/restrictions is made ie the Vic State government buildings. Instead, by their actions and choice of venue, the overall message from the News9 video moved from protesting against lockdown/restrictions to one of: it was a disgrace and they showed no respect at the Shrine of Remembrance. Protesting fail.

NZ, Australia - into winter with Covid-19

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