Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

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Doc67
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by Doc67 »

Arget wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:47 pm With all the information and misinformation floating around we don't know who or what is corona related or what.
What we do know is that Italy has had unprecedented deaths over the last couple of weeks. I cannot find a definite reason for anyone claiming it is "just the flu" or not.
Never before has so many people died from a illness since the Spanish Flu of 1918.

If someone can prove what has caused these deaths , and also in Spain, and it is in fact the Corona virus why so many there but so few in China?

Any legitimate answers.???
Perhaps Italy and Spain are telling the truth and China were lying about the true numbers and continue to do so.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by Brody »

Doc67 wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:49 pm
Arget wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:47 pm With all the information and misinformation floating around we don't know who or what is corona related or what.
What we do know is that Italy has had unprecedented deaths over the last couple of weeks. I cannot find a definite reason for anyone claiming it is "just the flu" or not.
Never before has so many people died from a illness since the Spanish Flu of 1918.

If someone can prove what has caused these deaths , and also in Spain, and it is in fact the Corona virus why so many there but so few in China?

Any legitimate answers.???
Perhaps Italy and Spain are telling the truth and China were lying about the true numbers and continue to do so.

It is posited that Italy was so hard hit due to Chinese tourists......you know they crave brand clothing and accessories and Italy is ground zero for that. It's selfie central for the well to do chinks showing off their ill gotten wealth.

Also SerpentZA, in the early days of this, showed social media posts from Chinese people bragging about paying to get forged health certificates and downing handfuls of paracetamol even though they had existing fevers just so they could board flights.......and these post were followed by photos of them eating hotpot in London, Italy etc.

Fucking selfish animals.
Fauci: Italy ‘Hit Very Badly’ By Coronavirus Due to Prevalence of Chinese Tourists
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fau ... -tourists/
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

Arget wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:47 pm With all the information and misinformation floating around we don't know who or what is corona related or what.
What we do know is that Italy has had unprecedented deaths over the last couple of weeks. I cannot find a definite reason for anyone claiming it is "just the flu" or not.
Never before has so many people died from a illness since the Spanish Flu of 1918.

If someone can prove what has caused these deaths , and also in Spain, and it is in fact the Corona virus why so many there but so few in China?

Any legitimate answers.???
Here are a couple means to make sense of those number for each country. For each one of the following point, different countries have different ways of making their stats.

1) If a hospital patient with a critical heart disease is in the hospital in critical condition, and gets tested positive for covid-19, then his heart stops, and he dies, while oxygen levels of his blood are normal, and his lung condition is normal, and all other covid related symptoms are minimal, does it gets counted as a Coronavirus death in the country stat.

2) What type of test was used, and what is it's false positive and false negative rate. Most test used in the developed countries have 2% chance of a false positive, and a much higher 40% chance of false negatives. Test used in third world countries tends to have even higher rates of both false positive and false negative.

3) Who gets tested? Mostly, or only people in hospitals? People going themselves to get tested? People needing to be hospitalised? People in a critial state? People with a fever 2 degree above normal? people showing symptoms?
On the diamond princess and Iceland everyone was tested regardless of their age, symptoms, etc... all other countries use more or less bias in who they test.

4) Many people are vaccinated in many countries, which reduce the flu propagation rate. When it comes to patients in a critical health state in the hospital, almost 100% of them are vaccinated against influenza in western countries.

5) I do not trust numbers for China, and tends to focus on countries with a better access to information. I also tend to stay away from numbers coming in from countries with insufficient test kits and extremely poor countries where the government is unable to gather an accurate census of their population, let alone medical data. I focus mostly on datas from EU / USA / Japan / South Korea, Canada, Australia etc.... or specific cases like the Diamond Princess where very extensive reports are available on 100% of the population.

6) Informations on Influenza is extremely complete, well conducted and easy to find via dozens of extended studies.

I highly encourage you to gather those informations yourself, and crunch the numbers yourself in order to figure out the difference in the fatality rate between the flu and influenza both globally, but also for a non-vaccinated person based on their age and pre existing conditions.

I myself focused on the part about non-vaccinated healthy people, as well as global rates, the covid appears to have a lower fatality rate than covid-19 on non-vaccinated people, regardless of their age.
The global fatality rate appears slightly higher than the average common flu, but within the same range as the common flu (Remember that the less deadly common flu only kills a third compared with the most deadly common flu).
As for people with pre-existing conditions which would be at risk of dying from influenza but most likely are vaccinated, Covid seems to have a 40% increased mortality rate compared with the flu, this 40% number hasn't been crunched enough so don't believe it, as I said I mostly focused on global rates and healthy people. But you can look at the fatality rate of the flu for people with pre existing conditions, fatality rate of the flu for people hospitalized, and compare them with countries that only test hospitalized people (Dont forget to take into account the test false positive rates).

We are extremly early and there is most likely a high margin of error in any calcul you will make, that will add up, but as I said, the flu death rate fluctuate a lot between years, and even 100% margin of error isn't much (Would you really care more if it was twice more deadly than the flu, twice less deadly, or as deadly? as I already said, the different types of flu can be up to 3 times more deadly depending on the year.)

Take your numbers from the world health organization and different country health ministry directly, not from the media, and crunch them yourself.
If you are not vaccinated against influenza, you will not care anymore about the Covid-19 whoever you are. Only specific people for whom influenza vaccine is a required should consider waiting for more statistics to fall.

Please crunch the numbers yourself, and then ask yourself what kills the most, fascism, Authoritarian governments, or the Covid-19.


(If you want to be super serious, consider spread rates, mutation rates, mutation types etc...etc.... this post was to help you find out more about the fatality rate)
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

What!! ?? ^^^ You mean there are no easy simplistic answers we can just pick up and hurl at our ideological "enemies"??

Welcome on board FreedomNotYetFound.
we need more uncertainty if we want to understand
:thumb:
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

After being told on another thread to be careful not to post false claims on this forum by both admins and users, I would like to add that many factors were not included in the above post, and that this line :
"If you are not vaccinated against influenza, you will not care anymore about the Covid-19 whoever you are."
Is factually wrong and needs to be taken with upmost precautions. The people considered "At Risk" for influenza and covid-19 are mostly the same but diverge in many ways too, one could have a pre-existing condition which does not place you at risk of dying of influenza if not vaccinated, but could place you in the At Risk population for covid-19. Also different mutation and strain of covid-19 exists with extremely different fatality-rate and my study of the data only accounts for covid-19 as a whole and not a specific strain of it.

The previous post I made are just a couple major points to take into account when reading the statistical data on fatality rates and are in no way the only ones, Many other factor affects it.
I do not make any medical claim. I do not know shit about medicine, I only know about statistics, which is all one need to calculate fatality rates, but does not include precise knowledge as to how covid-19 could affect a specific individual compared to influenza.

And those types of issues is why everyone should be careful with numbers, they are easily tortured and used to move a narrative, whether it be willingly or not, and we should all crunch them ourselves until the experts studies finally arrives (As all expert are still afraid to give any conclusion on the fatality rate at this point, which is the only correct scientific answer one could give according to publicly available data at this point if strictly following the scientific method. My results are I believe a correct un-biased statistical analyze of the official available data at the current date (I'm betting my life and my kid's life on it so I better not have messed up : p), but as I did not release a paper on it, they should hold no value to you personally until you've crunched the numbers yourself. And even if I did, one single paper is not enough, science requires consensus) A scientific answer on the exact fatality rate is still not available at this point due to lack of data and serious studies (We need a lot more studies where all the factors previously mentioned are limited or more information on their impact are available, the diamond princess and Iceland are not enough by themselves (we cannot make scientific claim with only 2 examples which holds less than 14000 people (and even less resolved cases)) and leaves too many unknown), And no expert claim to have a scientifically calculated fatality rate, nor do I .

Any stat disregarding those factors is bullshit, any stat pondering those factors and more are valuable.
Remember that according to all expert, and I agree with them, those stats do not yet allows to consider any answer as true if we follow the very high standards the word "Science" impose.

Admins, please consider merging this with my previous post if you feel like it's needed. In case the way I communicated it wasn't clear and can be considered as a dangerous false claim, as the fatality rate is directly correlated with how people will protect themselves. I do act based on my conclusions posted above, but I do not encourage others to act on my conclusion without posting a precise paper of how I arrived at them. Which is too time consuming, so please, crunch your own numbers, And remember we don't have enough number to crunch to come to a scientifically proven answer, the best we can do is get a "good" answer.
Last edited by 404FreedomNotFound on Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:37 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by Ryan754326 »

https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

Here is a long and interesting article outlining many of the reasons why Italy appears to be hit especially hard. Feel free to debunk if you feel the source is a dubious one.

It is updated every few days, and gives links to its sources.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by NeverNude »

404FreedomNotFound wrote: Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:59 pm After being told on another thread to be careful not to post false claims on this forum by both admins and users, I would like to add that many factors were not included in the above post, and that this line :
"If you are not vaccinated against influenza, you will not care anymore about the Covid-19 whoever you are."
Is factually wrong and needs to be taken with upmost precautions. The people considered "At Risk" for influenza and covid-19 are mostly the same but diverge in many ways too, one could have a pre-existing condition which does not place you at risk of dying of influenza if not vaccinated, but could place you in the At Risk population for covid-19. Also different mutation and strain of covid-19 exists with extremely different fatality-rate and my study of the data only accounts for covid-19 as a whole and not a specific strain of it.

The previous post I made are just a couple major points to take into account when reading the statistical data on fatality rates and are in no way the only ones, Many other factor affects it.
I do not make any medical claim. I do not know shit about medicine, I only know about statistics, which is all one need to calculate fatality rates, but does not include precise knowledge as to how covid-19 could affect a specific individual compared to influenza.

And those types of issues is why everyone should be careful with numbers, they are easily tortured and used to move a narrative, whether it be willingly or not, and we should all crunch them ourselves until the experts studies finally arrives (As all expert are still afraid to give any conclusion on the fatality rate at this point, which is the only correct scientific answer one could give according to publicly available data at this point if strictly following the scientific method. My results are I believe a correct un-biased statistical analyze of the official available data at the current date (I'm betting my life and my kid's life on it so I better not have messed up : p), but as I did not release a paper on it, they should hold no value to you personally until you've crunched the numbers yourself. And even if I did, one single paper is not enough, science requires consensus) A scientific answer on the exact fatality rate is still not available at this point due to lack of data and serious studies (We need a lot more studies where all the factors previously mentioned are limited or more information on their impact are available, the diamond princess and Iceland are not enough by themselves (we cannot make scientific claim with only 2 examples which holds less than 14000 people (and even less resolved cases)) and leaves too many unknown), And no expert claim to have a scientifically calculated fatality rate, nor do I .

Any stat disregarding those factors is bullshit, any stat pondering those factors and more are valuable.
Remember that according to all expert, and I agree with them, those stats do not yet allows to consider any answer as true if we follow the very high standards the word "Science" impose.

Admins, please consider merging this with my previous post if you feel like it's needed. In case the way I communicated it wasn't clear and can be considered as a dangerous false claim, as the fatality rate is directly correlated with how people will protect themselves. I do act based on my conclusions posted above, but I do not encourage others to act on my conclusion without posting a precise paper of how I arrived at them. Which is too time consuming, so please, crunch your own numbers, And remember we don't have enough number to crunch to come to a scientifically proven answer, the best we can do is get a "good" answer.
Jesus. Can I get your dealer's phone number?

Stop spreading BS. Or back up your BS numbers with sources. A google search would tell you your "fact" about unvaxinated people having a lower death rate is a wacky conspiracy theory originating on 8Chan and Reddit conspiracy subs.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevensalz ... 52fa392036

You must lie a LOT. You present numbers without sources, make up a whole theory about your fake numbers, then blather on about crunching our own numbers. What?! You want someone to write a paper on how YOU arrived at YOUR conclusions? Put down the pipe and close your laptop. It's not cool to post when your super high on meth or ketamine.


So back to reality. A couple things.
1) There are a lot of illegal Chinese here. Visa overstays, Chinese gangsters hiding out and the like. Like Italy, illegal Chinese don't go to hospitals for fear of deportation. So even if they know they have it, they aren't waltzing in to Royal hospital. Chinese only eat at Chinese restaurants here in Cambodia owned by Chinese. I'm sure Kung Flu is flying around the Chinese community here in PP. Good thing Chinese only tend to patronize Chinese businesses, hotels and restaurants. So you might have a self-isolating (not due to the flu, just due to normal Chinese behavior) pocket of infected Chinese.
2) Italians and Spaniards touch each other a lot. They kiss each other for greetings. They also have housholds where 3 generations all live together.
3) Twenty percent of people with the virus are asymptomatic. This number is likely to go far high when antibody testing is done later.
4) If anyone knows this 404 guy in real life, get him to rehab before we read about his OD in the newspaper.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by Andy S Tawatin »

According to other media which seems to be backed up by PRC health officials websites, this is far from the only case.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by chinesetakeaway »

ExPenhMan wrote: Sun Mar 29, 2020 9:41 am For what it's worth, I believe the prevalence is far higher than anybody's records show. Just about every foreigner male I know from my condo and neighbourhood believe they have already had the virus. They reported having strange flus, with varying COVID19 symptoms, over the last four months here in Bangkok, some claiming "I never get sick." I also believe I had a mild case of it in November after a Pattaya trip.
I also got sick having been in Thailand, Bangkok, Pattaya in November. The prevailing thinking now is that it needs to infect 100s of thousands before deaths get noticed. The UK has gone from reporting 200 cases on march 10th to today's numbers. Far more likely is 200 was 50,000 and today we have 2 million.
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Re: Chinese Woman Flying From Cambodia Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

@NeverNude

WTFFFFFFF????? Have you read my posts????? I am not anti-vaccine, None of what I posted is Anti-Vaccine all of the opposite actually, it underline the efficiency of vaccines in combating Influenza. I was answering to a question regarding the difference between fatality rates in Influenza and Covid-19, and was pointing out the importance of taking in account the stats for vaccinated and non-vaccinated populations when looking at the influenza part of the stat, to correctly ponder the answer.

I specified I made my calculs using only WHO and official ministry of health data.

I never said I wanted someone else to write a paper for me! I said you should not believe my conclusion and crunch the numbers yourself, as everything I said without clear and proper explanation and links explaining each step of each calculs with the sourced linked etc... shouldn't be trusted. All I said is that I didn't have the time to do a paper, I never said anyone else should do one, I simply said that they should look for a correctly pondered paper if one exist, or crunch the official WHO numbers themselves.

I simply highlight a couple factors that should be taken into account when extrapolating on Fatality rates according to the current WHO numbers. All experts agree that Death / by Cases is not sufficient to arrive to the best speculation on the covid-19 fatality rate, including experts from the WHO. I simply highlight a couple of factors that one needs to take into account when wondering why Fatality Rates reported by different sources seems so different from one another, give the results of my own calculs, and encourage everyone not to beleive my own results as they come without a clear paper on how I conducted those calculs, and based on which stats precisely and simply said I used numbers from the WHO. I also highlight the importance not to take seriously paper that forget major factors when pondering their stats. Those also only highlights some of the factor for which published official data is extremly easy to use but many other important factors are slightly harder to calculate or simply impossible at this point.


Please do not distort my word, If I am so far off, you shouldn't need to distort my claims in order to bash them.

And it is quite weird that you would quote a post I added in order to encourage people not to give my results too much credit and putting some perspective on their accuracy, to tell me I'm a liar.
Last edited by 404FreedomNotFound on Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:42 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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