Virus vs Economy

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SiemReapRoddy
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by SiemReapRoddy »

Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:05 pm
The world is going to look very silly if Sweden brushes this off without trashing their economy.
And Belarus finishes their football season.
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Kammekor
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Kammekor »

Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:05 pm
Cambo Dear wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:37 pm https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11282990/ ... ronavirus/

Despite being published in The Sun, this article gives lots of interesting perspectives which have been sadly lacking in the rest of the mainstream media.
I have written a couple of times of the beginning of a resistance in the UK to lockdown and crashing the economy, many commentators ar eopenly questioning the wisdom of it. The Sun's article by Trevor Kavanagh (a highly experienced political commentator) hits the nail on the head. This scorched earth policy wont work without a clearly defined exit plan. It should be lifted in increments and fast. Assuming good health, >30's at the end of this week, >40's a week later and see what happens. Within a month >50's out too.
By that time the doomed already in hospital will have died and those curable will be cured. Capacity largely restored.

The world is going to look very silly if Sweden brushes this off without trashing their economy.
You're going way too fast. No politician is going to run those risks based on the facts currently known.

If they would allow the 18-30 year old to return to their duties at the end of this week, the effect of that will not be seen in the hospitals until at least 20 days after they allow them out. Incubation, development of the disease (generally severe in the second or third week) will delay the effects significantly. Without proper testing and quarantine that's not going to work.

I think governments will lock down for longer, and are hoping for cheap antibody tests to come available. Then they can do mass testing, estimate how wide spread it is by then, keep the elderly and week at home and let the immune people and you people go out.
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Doc67
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Doc67 »

Kammekor wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:23 pm
Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:05 pm
Cambo Dear wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:37 pm https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11282990/ ... ronavirus/

Despite being published in The Sun, this article gives lots of interesting perspectives which have been sadly lacking in the rest of the mainstream media.
I have written a couple of times of the beginning of a resistance in the UK to lockdown and crashing the economy, many commentators ar eopenly questioning the wisdom of it. The Sun's article by Trevor Kavanagh (a highly experienced political commentator) hits the nail on the head. This scorched earth policy wont work without a clearly defined exit plan. It should be lifted in increments and fast. Assuming good health, >30's at the end of this week, >40's a week later and see what happens. Within a month >50's out too.
By that time the doomed already in hospital will have died and those curable will be cured. Capacity largely restored.

The world is going to look very silly if Sweden brushes this off without trashing their economy.
You're going way too fast. No politician is going to run those risks based on the facts currently known.

If they would allow the 18-30 year old to return to their duties at the end of this week, the effect of that will not be seen in the hospitals until at least 20 days after they allow them out. Incubation, development of the disease (generally severe in the second or third week) will delay the effects significantly. Without proper testing and quarantine that's not going to work.

I think governments will lock down for longer, and are hoping for cheap antibody tests to come available. Then they can do mass testing, estimate how wide spread it is by then, keep the elderly and week at home and let the immune people and you people go out.

We can't wait that long. We have to restart before the real damage is done. It's going to be very unpleasant either way.

The UK can barely manage 10k tests a day. They are promising 25K a day. At that rate it will take 5 years to test 70% of the population. To test 70% in one month means 1,500,000 test a day.

They should bring in the political polling companies. For all their faults in recent years, they do know how to model and organise random public opinion tests. Their methodology and interpretation of results will not be required, the tests will be a clear Yes or No.

Then we could make an informed assessment of the likely herd immunity rate we have, if any. As targeted testing continues that assessment can either be validated or adjusted accordingly. There are many who believe this bug has been around a long time and many have had it and are now immune.

We need a plan.
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Kammekor
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Kammekor »

Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:35 pm

We need a plan.
I agree. They all went in some kind of lockdown without even giving an exit strategy a single thought. Plain stupid. Plain panic.
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Doc67 »

Kammekor wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:41 pm
Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:35 pm

We need a plan.
I agree. They all went in some kind of lockdown without even giving an exit strategy a single thought. Plain stupid. Plain panic.
And now they are all sick: Johnson, Hancock, Prof Whitty, Dominic Cummings. No news on how sick either but if they've got a decent dose they will all be flat on their backs by now. Who's in charge? The supposed stand-in, Dominic Raab looks very lacklustre and out of his depth yesterday. It's a real concern at the moment.
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Clutch Cargo »

Kammekor wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:41 pm
Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:35 pm

We need a plan.
I agree. They all went in some kind of lockdown without even giving an exit strategy a single thought. Plain stupid. Plain panic.
Not disagreeing but at the time it seemed the Wuhan virus was out of control in Iran and Italy showing just how contagious this thing is. I recall reading that every day that went past that meant it would spread to xxxx number of new cases. That's how it spreads like wildfire uncontained. Indeed, now they're saying had China gone into lockdown much earlier, it could have been contained locally there and spared the rest of the world.

Now I'm thinking their medical experts were probably telling the politicians the quicker the lockdown the better to contain the spread and it should be done without delay...every day counts.. So yeah, policy on the fly and I suspect the attitude was: we'll worry about what next to do once we've got this thing under control and our hospitals haven't been overloaded.

I imagine that as the number of new cases drop, there will be a lot of discussion and debate on how best to bring in exit strategies to release the restrictions (bearing in mind the risks of a second wave) to return life to some sort of normality.

It's reassuring that all efforts are being made to develop quick and reliable tests, vaccine and associated treatments. It may be that those that have been tested and found to have had the virus already can resume normal work and activities for example.
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Kammekor
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Kammekor »

clutchcargo wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:26 pm
Kammekor wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:41 pm
Doc67 wrote: Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:35 pm

We need a plan.
I agree. They all went in some kind of lockdown without even giving an exit strategy a single thought. Plain stupid. Plain panic.
Not disagreeing but at the time it seemed the Wuhan virus was out of control in Iran and Italy showing just how contagious this thing is. I recall reading that every day that went past that meant it would spread to xxxx number of new cases. That's how it spreads like wildfire uncontained. Indeed, now they're saying had China gone into lockdown much earlier, it could have been contained locally there and spared the rest of the world.

Now I'm thinking their medical experts were probably telling the politicians the quicker the lockdown the better to contain the spread and it should be done without delay...every day counts.. So yeah, policy on the fly and I suspect the attitude was: we'll worry about what next to do once we've got this thing under control and our hospitals haven't been overloaded.

I imagine that as the number of new cases drop, there will be a lot of discussion and debate on how best to bring in exit strategies to release the restrictions (bearing in mind the risks of a second wave) to return life to some sort of normality.

It's reassuring that all efforts are being made to develop quick and reliable tests, vaccine and associated treatments. It may be that those that have been tested and found to have had the virus already can resume normal work and activities for example.
I think the governments were guessing they would buy time when they went in lockdown. Wuhan went in full lockdown on Jan 23rd. They will start lifting it on April 9th if I recall well. So that lockdown, and it was a real lockdown, lasted nearly three months.

No country in the world can bare the costs of a full lockdown for nearly three months. Trump reserved 2,000 billion USD for a two week lockdown. Reality will force the politicians to make difficult choices. Protect people from the virus, or protect the country's economy for future generations. Use the healthcare for COVID-19 only, or use part of it for other diseases as well..... Glad I'm no politician.
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by Cambo Dear »

All lockdowns overlook the exit strategy, as mentioned earlier. Eventually enough people have to catch it in order for an immunity to be built. I do understand the idea that if too many people likely to require hospitalisation catch it at the same time, then medical facilities could be overrun, but then why not insist that the at risk groups isolate while the rest of us crack on? Forcing us all into isolation just means delaying the inevitable. Also, the huge mistake the UK made was insisting that everyone who had the symptoms of the common cold isolate for at least 7 days. That's what closed the schools as teachers immediately seized the opportunity for even more holidays this year, meaning that there weren't enough to keep the schools open. It is also the reason why one in four doctors us currently at home, although we all know that very few of them is likely to have actually had this flu. It is a truly epic failure on every level and it will cause a national and probably global economic depression.
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

People seems to all be for Health at the cost of the economy. Ready to loose as many trillions of dollar as is needed. Yet I predict not many of them will be throwing a coin or some food to the beggar who lost everything to the upcoming crisis a couple years from now because society supposedly chose health above the economy, which will seems pretty ironic to said hungry and sick beggar. They will look at hungry kids and see them as numbers. If you want to use a finite amount of coin to improve health, you should make sure what you're doing gives you the most health improvement for each coin you spend.
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Re: Virus vs Economy

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

Clemen wrote: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:57 pm "Moderate social distancing yields $8 trillion in economic benefits, study finds"
"But in many respects, the either-or choice is a false one. A new working paper from Michael Greenstone and Vishan Nigam of the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics underscores that the two goals are complementary. A regimen of moderate social distancing, like what many areas of the country are doing now, has the potential to save well over a million lives.

And those saved lives are worth $8 trillion to the U.S. economy"
Full: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/m ... li=BBnbfcN
This estimate the worth of a human life at 11.5 million $, if you wanna save lives, I'm sure you can do better than 1 life with that kind of money if you forget about covid-19 and looked at other much more deadly issue which can be solved with such money, and surely, the lives you would save wouldn't be in the same age category.

Not long ago I met some ktv girls and bar girls who were working to pay the hospital bills of their parents. I'm sure you'd save more than 1 life by fucking 11.5 million$ worth of KTV chicks.

And on a more serious note :

https://www.globalgiving.org/learn/how- ... ld-hunger/
"Estimates of how much money it would take to end world hunger range from $7 billion to $265 billion per year. " This same article you posted range the confinement to multiple trillion in the USA alone!!

https://www.theworldcounts.com/challeng ... -each-year
9 millions hunger death per year.

And that's not even taking into account cheaper way to save lives from so many issues other than hunger where all we are lacking is money.

So if you are sitting on a couple trillion $ would you rather saves hundreds of millions of young people, or less than 2 million mostly old american and obese geezers many of which will die not much longer later.
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