Anchor Moy wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:35 am This is for discussion, not advice.
To be clear, I'm firmly in the camp of stay at home as much as possible, keep your distance, and wear a mask to go shopping, however, I do think that our new forum member has a point about the downside to imposing lockdown in countries that have no social safety net, such as Cambodia.

The result of a "lockdown", or even a partial closure of businesses in a country like Cambodia, means that most of those who are thrown out of work have no chance of finding employment in the city, so they will all head for their villages, taking the virus with them. Cambodian traveling conditions for the general population are crowded and condusive to spreading contagious diseases. People are often travel-sick and vomit into plastic bags while traveling in crowded minivans and taxis; four adults share a 3-person seat space, and the children sit on knees or wherever they can squeeze in.

In India, a 3 week lockdown has triggered a mass migration of poor workers from cities to villages. Look at this and then try to work out if this mass migration which is caused by the lockdown in India is not spreading the virus faster than no lockdown at all.

There is also the fact that many people will starve to death if they can't work for 3 weeks. I haven't got this figured out either, but it is possible that one size does not fit all when it comes to combating the virus. Any actions that are taken to slow the virus, which actually cause large movements of the population and pack crowds of people into small spaces like buses and trains, could be counter-productive.
Article on the Indian lockdown: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... oronavirus

The counter-argument is that hospitals in Cambodia would not be equipped at all to handle an outbreak. Sweden is taking a different approach to things, allowing people to go about their lives normally. But they're also being proactive and preparing their hospitals:

https://www.thelocal.se/20200330/pressu ... n-strength

"Over the last couple of days, Stockholm’s health care system has been completely transformed to manage the rise in patients in need of medical assistance. Hospitals have doubled their intensive care capacity within ten days, Eriksson told a press conference Monday morning. The next step is to triple capacity."

fazur wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:28 pm

404FreedomNotFound wrote: ↑Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:05 amUnfortunately forum quarrels is what this is becoming,

yeah sorry for erring on the side of science and upsetting ur church

In order to understand the scale of the deaths due to poverty, especially in children in previous years:
https://www.worldvision.org/sponsorship ... erty-facts
https://www.globalissues.org/article/26 ... -and-stats
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5955488/
(All supposedly using the world bank as their source, I haven't gone through the world bank report to confirm it though, those are simply the first 3 links google find and their infos seems to correlate.)

(For the economic forecast and poverty resulting directly from the confinement, I'll leave it up to you to select your source as this is nothing but wide speculation at this point, I do not know of any expert who have very hopeful though).

In order to calculate the expected fatality rate, and number of people hospitalized, you can address this post from myself :
post408720.html#p408720
Which underline some possible clue as to how to interpret the WHO and different country data based on their own strategies.

In order to have a better understanding of the strain on the healthcare, this is much harder to find correct data, and those are extremely different based on the country, here are some reference for cambodia :
https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/96/7/17-203737/en/
From this link the conclusion is easy, Khmer people do not have enough financial access to their healthcare system compared with the number of doctor and facilities available.
Of course free announced treatment for covid-19 might be a big game changer in the strain on hospital this will have in cambodia, but with the current amount of test available, and with the lack of government efficiency at many level in this country, it makes me tend towards the no strain on hospital speculation due to sick people not having financial access.

Also when it comes to avoiding the stress peak in the healthcare system, how far towards a fast spread course are we currently on is to be taken into account, Patient 0 dates back now to almost 4 months in wuhan, and most country, especially cambodia downplayed the virus to the point where the current spread of the epidemic without confinement might not peak much higher than one with such late confinement. All expert agrees that the current number of infected is extremely higher world-wide than what has been reported due to lack of testing, especially in Cambodia. Now this does not mean confinement isn't still a solution to reduce the fast spread scenario, but it clearly mitigates it's efficiency as to the number of death and the reduced strain on the health care system that could come from it, as it only started in march, reducing therefore the number of live saved thanks to it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathemati ... us_disease
www.mdpi.com/pdf

The stress on the healthcare system and the death it could result in is very hard to calculate, both in cambodia and other countries, I command the efforts of all the government and companies who stepped up and helped increase their healthcare capacity.
For now I especially hear about reports from EU country on not being able to cope with the situation in hospitals with already extremely dysfunctional healthcare system where the alarm was already rang multiple times by the health workers in previous years, but there is no official data publicly released allowing to know how many people die due to it, and how bad this strain is exactly, and if this is globally the case world-wide.
Of course more information will soon arrive as the general number of people hospitalized for respiratory issues between previous years januray-march, and 2020, which will give us a much better understanding, but those stats haven't been compiled into national reports yet as far as I could find online.
Please remember the mentioned death toll from poverty across the world and the trillion of $ lost to confinement, and the expected forcast on the coming economic crisis, the number of death due to the saturation of the healthcare system would need to be massive to justify the confinement from a "let's save lives" point of view.

When it comes to Mass Exodus, which wasn't part of the WHO experts and scientist simulation (On the contrary, the simulation was based on reduced population movement), I couldn't find this year's stats, but you can take the various reports on the media and correlate them with this at least :
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MIG
And run the same propagation simulation used by covid-19 experts taking those into account in their parameters. (I am not claiming their parameters were wrong at the time of their publication, but re-running the same simulation taking into account the actual effect of confinement on world population movements vs the expected effect of confinement on world populations)

Now let's say you don't want to actually make any work, or simply don't have the mathematical knowledge to understand statistics and propagation models. You can simply confront Economic Experts, Poverty Experts, Health Experts, Social Experts, and see what they think about it. Don't just look at health expert who knows a lot on the correlation between population movement and pandemic spread, but knows so little on non-health associated issue as of the actual effect of confinement law on population movement. Simply take the model of official health expert on the worst coronavirus case scenario, and compare it with the model of official economic expert on the worst economic case scenario of a lockdown.
The people who chose which type of expert to listen to are our government, not experts, just politician.

My conclusions :
In the case of an efficient Confinement according to both experts and my own calculs bring me to believe the economic impact will kill more people than the healthcare system strain would without confinement, it's actually not even on the same scale at all. The age range and health of the people affected by poverty death is also more concerning compared to the corona (Most of death in italy from people with previous health conditions, mostly among old people (nlr : https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... zo_eng.pdf)) while poverty affects disproportionately children.
Confinement law does not create Efficient confinement, it actually creates the exact opposite (not due to people like me, but simply to people loosing their jobs, and not having classes in school, or simply going to their second house to confine etc... etc....)

Now for the part that could be considered more about morals, and less about stats and science, the following is unsubstantiated claims that are not about science nor strong stats, and simply evoke my conclusion on why so many countries lock down. All of the following is conspiracy and rumors if you will, but I suspect every government has a lot to gain personally out of this:

My conclusion on why such policy was followed by most country starting march (this doesn't include china as they had to grasp with the issue with many more unknown than there was before the rest of the world followed) :
Politicians saw an opportunity to stir up confusion and fear just like they did in the two last Humanity vs their common enemy war :
War On Drugs.
War On Terror.
War On Corona.
With every growing liberticide laws, population control, wars, death, poverty, jails.
And as we move on from previous Humanity vs "insert scary name" we realize we lost more than we gained. That drugs usage went up. We only worsen the situation all over the middle east, even replacing al kaida with fucking isis at some point due to all the mess we created over there. And now we are moving towards a quarter of the world which have lost their most basic human rights (Home confinement), A move towards a Cashless society, Millions of people will soon loose or already lost their company, their assets, their land to the banks and loan sharks, a Move towards generalized GPS tracking.... What a change with 2018-2019 which were the two years that counted for the most revolts and protestation world-wide. As well as record low index of government approval internationally. Without even taking into account all the small dirty buisness on the side like passing the law they had trouble getting passed in the EU, or simply cracking down even more on opposition as in Cambodia.
Let me also remind you that official economic experts have been warning of an economic crisis to come, with even BankRun taking place in some countries, Stiring up fear is a good opportunity to use the corona as an excuse, and the lockdown was a good way to make sure that selling assets on the speculative market would bring a short and inevitable reward to the people in power.
Finally, tanking the main National bank and Federal reserves but increasing the amount of liquidity is at the personal advantage of the world bank and the FMI, in order to finally get rid of the USD as the main international trading standards, and strengthen the use and importance of special drawing rights for international trade and currency values.

Finally and this only entails myself and isn't about conspiracy or rumors but about personal convictions :
Freedom is worth many many lives. Maybe 1 person freedom isn't worth millions of death, but millions of people's freedom isn't worth one person's death either.
At the opposite of freedom lies fascism.
I would rather kill someone with my bare hand than allow him to strip me of my human rights.

This dude an antivaxxer?

I am not an Anti-vaccine, I believe in science. Even though many company have more than dubious guidelines on how they manufacture their vaccines, the science behind vaccines have reached the stage of "Theory" and their efficiency when used have been widely researched and proven. And I do vaccines my kids.

I mean, you guys tell me it's not science, I take the time to link you the actual official reports so that you can correlate them as I did, and you ask me if I'm an anti-vaccine... wtf?? sorry for not being a flat earther or a creationist either... you.... humm... calm down.. calm down.....
How many time do I have to say that I value official data, experts, and statistics, over narratives and rumors, and that I am a firm believer in not only the scientific method, but follow the scientific consensus on issues as well. This is a political issue, not a scientific one, if any of claims, correlation, calcul, or statistics is incorrect, if any expert directly contradict the points I make, please share.

So far the only statistical post I've seen is from Jerry Attrick. Regarding the amount of vaccination among small childrens in cambodia.
The only valid argument for confinement I heard is reducing the strain on the hospital system, which I accept as a valid argument. But despite the difficulty to get exact number and usable speculation as to the expected amount of death of poverty vs the strain on the hospital, they seem from the official statistics posted above to be on completely different scale.

Lastly, I still cannot see any post which goes against the "confinement law makes more population movement argument", I conjure you to use the exact same model that was used in order to speculate on the virus propagation without confinement and with efficient confinement studies.
And to compare it with results taking in what the number the media report on mass exodus (no official international data report yet, but media do give national estimate) and local confinement effects (so not the speculated scenario of a perfect confinement but the reality of the types of movement those laws create).
Once more, I posted above international migration for previous years to help you setup the propagation simulation parameters, (numbers for intra national migration on previous years is also available directly on the various national .gov website for various countries)

Finally the freedom argument, but obviously if basic stats, and number, is already too much to handle, philosophical arguments seems above this forum entirely.

@Captain Bonez
When I see some previous post which are against confinement with arguments such as 30 000 total death is a small number, and you are not jumping at their throat to tell them how dumb such an argument is, and you rightfully so post a document on exponential spread . Countering bad arguments with good arguments, Good job!
When I see some previous post which shows shock picture of indian walking on top of one another I feel like an image is worth many words, but isn't worth jack shit compared to actual stats. I dont see you complaining.
But when someone comes forth with valid arguments based on official stats, you call them anti-science??? Are you sure you just don't have good counter arguments?
When I see you, I see someone who hasn't given two fuck of thought on the issue, and feel obligated to make ad hominem attacks cause he has nothing better to say than "Our politician and the TV told us to do it, have you watched the Panemic Tv Serie???" No I haven't, and yes I know what fucking "exponential" means. Seems like you only understand dominos effects of health issue, and cannot correlate it to other dominos effect which can be much more deadly and hurtful to many more people. It also seems you don't understand the basic concepts of pondered statistics.

I'm just staying home to make sure the healthcare system isn't strained. Good night!

And I'm glad you have the freedom to do so, and that government and society as a whole is trying to make it possible for you to do so through tax break, keeping the pay-roll coming etc...etc...
I hope that if nothing else, you will show yourself to be as understanding as I am with you, with the people who go out. And not support any removal of massive populations basic human rights through force anymore (Cause I believe you did say you were in support of forcing everyone to follow the confinement through force and repression and increased government control)

Orwell, where the fuck are you when we need you?

I remember years ago when I'd stand in line at Brixton Academy waiting to see whatever bands I'd gone to see. Usually there was some religious fellow that'd go up and down the queue waffling on and on and on about religion and telling people not to go inside and listen to the blasphemous music.

I never saw one person, out of all the times I witnessed that, ever leave the queue and be like, "You're right, I shouldn't go inside," and it's the same for you and those conspiracy theorists. You seem to just waffle on and ram shit down people's throats and no one gives a fuck.

404, a lot of what you say has some merit. My circumstances dictate that I have to consider more than just me through this trying period. (And I mean no one outside my immediate family.) Both you and me and Bonez can go at each other like pitbulls in a ring, but people will make their own choices. I choose to "ride this one out" and follow what is, I hope, the best medical and scientific advice that is available to make that choice. Underneath this decision is also the wishes of my parents, which I simply can not dismiss.

You prefer to analyse data, which I suppose possibly produces statistics. We know the saying about lies and damn lies... These things can sometimes (not always) be bent to suit a narrative, and it all depends on who's narrative is being played at that moment. (For the record, you never struck me as an anti-vaxxer!!) It wasn't long ago that someone famous said that this would all be blown over and under control by Easter. Look how that turned out.

For every "argument" there is a counter-argument, and this will live for eternity. I'll do it my way, you do it your way, and as I said in a previous post, in months to come, perhaps we can all one day sit back and enjoy a beer and laugh about all of this?