daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am Maybe reducing the Riel to USA $ exchange rate may help . But turning the page, there are also advantages in making the Riel stronger.

Let's go through the possibilities of .


USA $1 = 3,500 r

or

USA $1 = 4,500 r

I don't think this would make much difference. a high percentage of the economy is in USD and the riel is like a peripheral currency.

Devaluing the riel would cause a loss of confidence by civil servants and those with assets denominated in riel, which would just contribute to panic. Hopefully the government would realize this and hold steady.

You would have to agree that if a economy , , eg USA ,, is doing well , then the currency is usually strong. The opposite if the economy is poor or badly run. Many examples in the world to show this.

Where do you think the Cambodian economy sits . We use a strong USA $ , so should/is/ the Cambodian economy be strong ?

Gov. needs to do something...even a kilo of rie a week would stave bad things for awhile... For HE to protect the government they really should find some, even the minimalist of assistance for the masses.....

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am Maybe reducing the Riel to USA $ exchange rate may help . But turning the page, there are also advantages in making the Riel stronger.

Let's go through the possibilities of .


USA $1 = 3,500 r

or

USA $1 = 4,500 r

I don't think this would make much difference. a high percentage of the economy is in USD and the riel is like a peripheral currency.

Devaluing the riel would cause a loss of confidence by civil servants and those with assets denominated in riel, which would just contribute to panic. Hopefully the government would realize this and hold steady.

You would have to agree that if a economy , , eg USA ,, is doing well , then the currency is usually strong. The opposite if the economy is poor or badly run. Many examples in the world to show this.

Where do you think the Cambodian economy sits . We use a strong USA $ , so should/is the Cambodian economy be strong ?

Thanks for this, I enjoy an economic discussion. You're right that if an economy is doing well, it's currency tends to be stronger (barring any action by the Central Bank or government). However, Cambodia is not really using it's own money, I've read before that 80-90 percent of the economy is USD.

Although a devaluation of the riel by Cambodian citizens selling off the riel is possible, given the small amount of riel in circulation it would be relatively easier for the Cambodian government to support the riel. Further, I predict that most Cambodians will not sell the riel because those who want dollars already have their assets in dollars. And further, many normal Cambodian people use riel on a daily basis.

Regarding dollarization and the strength of the Cambodian economy, for a long time I believed that using the US dollar is helping Cambodia. It seemed to me that many foreign investors in Asia were investing in Cambodia in order to have assets in USD. In the case of an economic crisis, Cambodia could continue to attract inflows for this same reason.

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:32 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am Maybe reducing the Riel to USA $ exchange rate may help . But turning the page, there are also advantages in making the Riel stronger.

Let's go through the possibilities of .


USA $1 = 3,500 r

or

USA $1 = 4,500 r

I don't think this would make much difference. a high percentage of the economy is in USD and the riel is like a peripheral currency.

Devaluing the riel would cause a loss of confidence by civil servants and those with assets denominated in riel, which would just contribute to panic. Hopefully the government would realize this and hold steady.

You would have to agree that if a economy , , eg USA ,, is doing well , then the currency is usually strong. The opposite if the economy is poor or badly run. Many examples in the world to show this.

Where do you think the Cambodian economy sits . We use a strong USA $ , so should/is the Cambodian economy be strong ?

Thanks for this, I enjoy an economic discussion. You're right that if an economy is doing well, it's currency tends to be stronger (barring any action by the Central Bank or government). However, Cambodia is not really using it's own money, I've read before that 80-90 percent of the economy is USD.

Although a devaluation of the riel by Cambodian citizens selling off the riel is possible, given the small amount of riel in circulation it would be relatively easier for the Cambodian government to support the riel. Further, I predict that most Cambodians will not sell the riel because those who want dollars already have their assets in dollars. And further, many normal Cambodian people use riel on a daily basis.

Regarding dollarization and the strength of the Cambodian economy, for a long time I believed that using the US dollar is helping Cambodia. It seemed to me that many foreign investors in Asia were investing in Cambodia in order to have assets in USD. In the case of an economic crisis, Cambodia could continue to attract inflows for this same reason.

OK,, good input,, so whats your view on a revaluation of the riel. Remember not so long ago there was 40 Baht == 4000 r ==USA 1$

Now roughly , 30 Baht = 4000 r = USA 1$. Thailand has a strong economy ??

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:42 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:32 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am Maybe reducing the Riel to USA $ exchange rate may help . But turning the page, there are also advantages in making the Riel stronger.

Let's go through the possibilities of .


USA $1 = 3,500 r

or

USA $1 = 4,500 r

I don't think this would make much difference. a high percentage of the economy is in USD and the riel is like a peripheral currency.

Devaluing the riel would cause a loss of confidence by civil servants and those with assets denominated in riel, which would just contribute to panic. Hopefully the government would realize this and hold steady.

You would have to agree that if a economy , , eg USA ,, is doing well , then the currency is usually strong. The opposite if the economy is poor or badly run. Many examples in the world to show this.

Where do you think the Cambodian economy sits . We use a strong USA $ , so should/is the Cambodian economy be strong ?

Thanks for this, I enjoy an economic discussion. You're right that if an economy is doing well, it's currency tends to be stronger (barring any action by the Central Bank or government). However, Cambodia is not really using it's own money, I've read before that 80-90 percent of the economy is USD.

Although a devaluation of the riel by Cambodian citizens selling off the riel is possible, given the small amount of riel in circulation it would be relatively easier for the Cambodian government to support the riel. Further, I predict that most Cambodians will not sell the riel because those who want dollars already have their assets in dollars. And further, many normal Cambodian people use riel on a daily basis.

Regarding dollarization and the strength of the Cambodian economy, for a long time I believed that using the US dollar is helping Cambodia. It seemed to me that many foreign investors in Asia were investing in Cambodia in order to have assets in USD. In the case of an economic crisis, Cambodia could continue to attract inflows for this same reason.

OK,, good input,, so whats your view on a revaluation of the riel. Remember not so long ago there was 40 Baht == 4000 r ==USA 1$

Now roughly , 30 Baht = 4000 r = USA 1$. Thailand has a strong economy ??

It could happen if the USD continues to be used as a safe haven and therefor gets stronger. Then is will be increasingly expensive to hold the current peg as the NBC would have to sell Dollars.
But i still think it’s unlikely. A massive devaluation (like other countries did in 97) would screw up the agricultural sector where it is still the main currency.
Other segments of the economy are pretty much purely transacting in USD. The stuff I bring in, the stuff I bring out, my staff’s salaries, the place i bought.... never touched a Riel.

Median age here is something like 24 if I recall correctly. Even with bad healthcare the outcome probably wouldn't be nearly as catastrophic as in Italy. I'm with the General in that it's been allowed bring the whole world to it's knees. Plenty of people die of other causes every year, but no one bats an eyelid. I know one gets lambasted for even mentioning it, but it still holds true. I guess it's simply easier for people to focus on this than other issues (climate change, for example). The economic outcome won't be good, but people will scrape through.

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:42 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:32 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:20 pm

daeum_tnaot wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 1:12 pm

Duncan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:19 am Maybe reducing the Riel to USA $ exchange rate may help . But turning the page, there are also advantages in making the Riel stronger.

Let's go through the possibilities of .


USA $1 = 3,500 r

or

USA $1 = 4,500 r

I don't think this would make much difference. a high percentage of the economy is in USD and the riel is like a peripheral currency.

Devaluing the riel would cause a loss of confidence by civil servants and those with assets denominated in riel, which would just contribute to panic. Hopefully the government would realize this and hold steady.

You would have to agree that if a economy , , eg USA ,, is doing well , then the currency is usually strong. The opposite if the economy is poor or badly run. Many examples in the world to show this.

Where do you think the Cambodian economy sits . We use a strong USA $ , so should/is the Cambodian economy be strong ?

Thanks for this, I enjoy an economic discussion. You're right that if an economy is doing well, it's currency tends to be stronger (barring any action by the Central Bank or government). However, Cambodia is not really using it's own money, I've read before that 80-90 percent of the economy is USD.

Although a devaluation of the riel by Cambodian citizens selling off the riel is possible, given the small amount of riel in circulation it would be relatively easier for the Cambodian government to support the riel. Further, I predict that most Cambodians will not sell the riel because those who want dollars already have their assets in dollars. And further, many normal Cambodian people use riel on a daily basis.

Regarding dollarization and the strength of the Cambodian economy, for a long time I believed that using the US dollar is helping Cambodia. It seemed to me that many foreign investors in Asia were investing in Cambodia in order to have assets in USD. In the case of an economic crisis, Cambodia could continue to attract inflows for this same reason.

OK,, good input,, so whats your view on a revaluation of the riel. Remember not so long ago there was 40 Baht == 4000 r ==USA 1$

Now roughly , 30 Baht = 4000 r = USA 1$. Thailand has a strong economy ??

I don't think you can really compare the riel and the baht, because, as I said, the Khmer riel is like a peripheral currency and the USD is the main currency of Cambodia.

For this link, https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from ... B&view=10Y It shows that the lowest rate of the Baht was 36.5 in the last 10 years. Why it was that low or why it bounced back I don't know as I don't follow the Thai economy.

But generally, the exchange rate for a country like Thailand is a combination of market forces and government or central bank policy.

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 2:17 pm today;

32.5 baht/$1
2 months ago it was 30.4

Remember not so long ago there was 40 Baht == 4000 r ==USA 1$

LOL

not since 2005 was the baht at 40 =$1

When you are 72 years old , 2005 , that's only 15 years ago,,, As I said,, not so long ago.