timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:08 am Also, Cambodia's deaths (rolling seven days) have doubled in a month.

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:08 am Also, Cambodia's deaths (rolling seven days) have doubled in a month.

AndyKK wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:40 am

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:08 am Also, Cambodia's deaths (rolling seven days) have doubled in a month.

Would you say it's a high death rate compared to the numbers they are saying are tested possitive?

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 10:44 am

AndyKK wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:40 am

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 9:08 am Also, Cambodia's deaths (rolling seven days) have doubled in a month.

Would you say it's a high death rate compared to the numbers they are saying are tested possitive?

Well, yes. Anyway just coming back to my original feelings: Cambodia is not testing nearly enough people to know how many cases there are. They should be doing >100k tests/day. And they'd find the case numbers to be significantly higher than the 800+ currently reported. What they would do with that information I don't know. Their strategy seems to be to just to roll out the vaccines in the most affected areas ASAP in the hope that they will eventually get on top of it. As Doc notes there aren't nearly enough ICU beds. And the field hospitals got maxed out with probably mostly asymptomatic cases, which is why they're now allowing people to isolate at home. Just have to keep on masking up, minimising contact and ride it out until the whole country is vaccinated I guess.

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:23 am

Kammekor wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:32 pm

timmydownawell wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:13 pm Given the virus tends to spread exponentially without meaningful lockdowns, I present this possibility/hypothetical. Testing is woefully inadequate here, and I truly believe the reported case numbers are a fraction of the real situation.

Daily deaths have been relatively stable for 2-4 (?) weeks now (let's say 30 / day) so until about two weeks ago there has not been a exponential rise I think.

What makes you think there has been an exponential rise ever since? AFAIK nothing has changed over the last two weeks

My speculation is purely because Cambodia's line on the graph has plateaued despite no real action having been taken to cause that to happen. Compared to TH/VN it seems... highly unlikely.

timmydownawell wrote:

TWY wrote: ↑Mon Jul 19, 2021 3:45 pm I'd agree that there are many unreported cases. But I'd also point to the successful drive to get folks vaccinated. At the very least those that are vaccinated face a much lower rate of hospitalization (which is when I assume much of those testing positive are actually tested) and death.

Both Thailand and Vietnam are way behind Cambodia in that regard. So over time I'd expect Cambodia to see a less steep curve - partially due to lack of testing, but also due to fewer people becoming "seriously" sick with Covid. That would allow most people who are mildly sick to ride it out at home. Folks everywhere pretty much know they don't want to be tested if not really sick and risk getting sent off to quarantine.

Yes there is a very high level of vaccination in PP but not in the provinces, many of which are reporting 100+ cases a day. Meanwhile vaccinated people in PP are testing positive (e.g. 45 people in Toul Tumpoung Pagoda yesterday). Vaccinated people might not get (very) sick but there are still the unvaccinated adults, children to worry about (12+yos are now starting to get jabs). My point was really that the official numbers are likely very misleading and I'm curious what would be revealed if they were testing >100k/day instead of a pitiful 6/7k.

In addition there will be less resistance to being tested now that they have accepted that mild cases can stay at home.