Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
Now we're getting closer to real story of the failing Thai economy. Thai former economist at IMF starts two-part column in the Bangkok Post on dangers facing the country's economic health by looking at the recent past and what's in store the rest of the year.
1.
A few more quotes:What are the prospects for the Thai economy? The short answer is worse -- and likely to get much worse.
1.
2.Before we gaze into the future, let's look at the past. I never start with the government's GDP figures to analyse the economy as I find official figures to be inconsistent with other sectors. I was taught at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that GDP figures, which are technically called the "real sector", must be consistent with other economic sectors such as the monetary sector, the fiscal sector and the external sector.
Therefore, I devised a more accurate measurement of the economy which I term "adjusted GDP". And, on an adjusted GDP basis, GDP growth for the first quarter of this year is 0.3%, not 2.8% as compiled by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which indicates that the Thai economy is far from being okay.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opi ... this-year?On the production side, Thailand has lost about 20% of labour productivity over the past five years. The productivity loss is largely the result of a lack of investments to upgrade factories. Average capital investment growth stands at only 2.7% per year while minimum investment growth of 5% is required to maintain productivity. This severe loss of competitiveness is the true cause of the decline in Thai exports, not the slowdown in the global economy.
The slowdown in global economic growth from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2019 (July 2019 IMF projection) did not cause the 4.9% contraction in Thai exports in the first quarter. According to an expert, the lack of private investment, particularly from Japan, is a direct result of Thailand not joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Without clear direction in international trade, Japanese manufacturers decided to drop Thailand from their global supply chain. The strong currency only makes a bad situation worse.
- Kung-fu Hillbilly
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
What's gonna tank 1st? Baht or Pound?
Dropped to 37 today
Dropped to 37 today
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
i fear the pounds going to get worse before it gets betterColin Mack wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:56 pm What's gonna tank 1st? Baht or Pound?
Dropped to 37 today
Mean Dtuk Mean Trei, Mean Loy Mean Srey
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
as much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weakerKung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.
Mean Dtuk Mean Trei, Mean Loy Mean Srey
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
it was 22 to the $$ when i first visited, getting 30.8 is fantasticJamie_Lambo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:04 pmas much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weakerKung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.
but not as good as 54 in the late 90's LOL
Do feel sad for the brits retired here, watching their money drop daily
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
Yep, I feel sorry for my British friends who decided not to come at all last year or this year. This is a crew that visited 1-2 months at a time, once or twice a year. So all those hotel rooms and bar stools were empty for months. Lots of Thai hospitality types lost a lot of money.phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:20 pmit was 22 to the $$ when i first visited, getting 30.8 is fantasticJamie_Lambo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:04 pmas much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weakerKung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.
but not as good as 54 in the late 90's LOL
Do feel sad for the brits retired here, watching their money drop daily
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
The present situation is not so much currencies falling, but the USS$ rising.
But what goes up must come down.
Ask Isaac Newton.
But what goes up must come down.
Ask Isaac Newton.
Cambodia,,,, Don't fall in love with her.
Like the spoilt child she is, she will not be happy till she destroys herself from within and breaks your heart.
Like the spoilt child she is, she will not be happy till she destroys herself from within and breaks your heart.
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Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
end of 2015 it was 56baht > £1, now its around 36baht > £1 ... its fucking awfulphuketrichard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:20 pmit was 22 to the $$ when i first visited, getting 30.8 is fantasticJamie_Lambo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:04 pmas much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weakerKung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.
but not as good as 54 in the late 90's LOL
Do feel sad for the brits retired here, watching their money drop daily
Mean Dtuk Mean Trei, Mean Loy Mean Srey
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
Punchy McShortstacks School of Hard Knocks
Re: Real GDP numbers show Thai economy in dire straits
Horrendous, It's now 26 quid for short time, ffs I'm going to be bankrupt at this rate.
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