Rise and fall of an Empire

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Duncan
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Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by Duncan »

A question directed mainly to those who study history, especially on the rise and fall of empires like the Roman Empire, Spanish, British , and the American.

Do you believe that the Chinese Empire will one day collapse , and if so what will be the results of that.
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by Pizzalover »

A very long time ago someone with the name Gibbons (he was not from Borneo though) wrote a book about the fall of the Roman Empire. Something like a three stage model rise, peak, decline/fall. It has some appeal to simply minds as it also resembles human aging.
Much better, imho, would be a concept of 'changing.' Not in the the sense of the CIA's modernization theory, a 1950s propaganda construct.

In other words, dont look too much into the moving of borders. Better take a close look at the power structure and how it evolved. The non-communist Chinese party managed pretty well the transfer of its leadership from Maoism to wild west capitalism while keep full control of the security apparatus and its provisioning. Now the colonial empire (today's Chinese borders) is expanding in a 19th century stile imperialist fashion with securing extra-territorial areas (Nicaragua, seemingly Dshibuti, and probably others as well), aside from that direct expansion in the South China Sea, economic penetration in Pakistan, SEA, strategic spots around the globe. That's a more modern form resembling cold war policies. The big problem for them is energy supply which they cant protect so far and which limits their military options.
I dont know enough about the economic and its problems within China. THere might be elements for implosion. Otherwise the Chinese expansion will continue for the better part of our lifetime.
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Bitte_Kein_Lexus
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by Bitte_Kein_Lexus »

The Chinese Empire hasn't even risen yet, why are you even trying to contemplate its fall? That might come in 200 years... Very few countries have flourished more than once. France and China are two that come to mind.
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by taabarang »

Plover's response to op:s query certainly brought an article from today's PPP to mind.

"Cambodia, which this year suspended major military drills with the United States for two years saying the armed forces were too busy, is prepared for defence exercises with the Chinese, Defence Minister Tea Banh told a military delegation from Beijing this week.
Banh discussed military-to-military cooperation with the Chinese armed forces in a meeting with representatives of the Chinese National Defence University on Wednesday.
“Cambodia is prepared to conduct otherAngkor's exercises with the Chinese People’s Liberation Army as well as preparing for the Chinese navy’s docking in Cambodia,” Banh told the delegation’s leader, Major General Zhao Wenhua, according to a press release.
In January, Cambodia said it would suspend for two years the long-running annual “Angkor. Sentinel” exercises with the US military, saying its troops were too busy.
The decision came in wake of a major joint exercise with China and was followed by the scrapping of a humanitarian programme run by the US Navy and cancelled anti-terrorism exercises run by Australia.

Observers saw the moves as part of Cambodia’s tilt away from the West and towards China, which has showered the Kingdom with grants, loans and investment.
However, Defence Ministry spokesman Chum Socheat denied playing favourites.
He said cooperating with the Chinese involved ongoing training programmes, such as language training, and not new exercises.
He said while some exercises would remain “delayed temporarily”, others would continue, but did not give further details.
Asked whether drills would continue with the US, he said the ministry “will wait and see the situation, whether it is fruitful or not”.
US Embassy spokesman David Josar referred questions on the matter to Cambodian authorities."
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John Bingham
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by John Bingham »

Pizzalover wrote: Fri Jul 21, 2017 1:49 pm Now the colonial empire (today's Chinese borders) is expanding in a 19th century stile imperialist fashion with securing extra-territorial areas (Nicaragua, seemingly Dshibuti, and probably others as well), aside from that direct expansion in the South China Sea, economic penetration in Pakistan, SEA, strategic spots around the globe.
I''m not sure what is being discussed here. China's borders have barely changed since the 1949 Communist victory, other than re-asserting control over their province of Tibet and regaining control of Macau and Hong Kong. Djibouti has French, Saudi and US bases as well as the Chinese one. The Chinese are building a canal in Nicaragua, hardly an invasion. The Spratlys and Paracels are pretty much the only territorial expansion going on.
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frank lee bent
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by frank lee bent »

The Chinese Empire hasn't even risen yet
i disagree, the infrastructure capacity alone dwarfs any other country.
with the one belt project, their current marine shipping dominance in commerce will soon extend across continents, traversing dozens of countries and opening vast new markets.
go have a look at USA industrial capacity, and even the civil transport system.
it is crumbling, outdated and profit, rather than efficiency driven.

China is already the number one global empire. it happened while we were bickering about anthropogenic climate change, LGBT equality, and how to further destabilize the ME in order to seize control.

almost everything basic that you buy, clothing, footwear, electronics is made there already.
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Bitte_Kein_Lexus
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by Bitte_Kein_Lexus »

You're confused. You're currently witnessing the rise, not the empire. If you mean it's a world power, then of course I agree, but the US is still the world's sole superpower, both military and (increasingly less) economically. China will eclipse them soon enough, but hasn't yet. The fact that their manufacturing industry still relies heavily on the rest of the world is telling enough. Still, give them a few years and their overall reach and soft power projection will surpass that of the US. Were already witnessing vassal state like behaviour towards them from several Asian and African countries. Soon enough...

Still, I find it hard to talk about a decline when we're still so far away from the peak. The key for them is technology, and they're closing the gap very quickly now. Once they match the western world in terms of quality and innovation (military, space, specialized machinery) then they'll become the world's prime superpower. Now they're just another power along with US, with the EU, Russia and to a much lesser extent, India trailing behind.
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Kuroneko
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by Kuroneko »

Duncan wrote: Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:25 am A question directed mainly to those who study history, especially on the rise and fall of empires like the Roman Empire, Spanish, British , and the American.

Do you believe that the Chinese Empire will one day collapse , and if so what will be the results of that.
It did before:

Image

I'm sure it will again!
The armies of Allah had never encountered defeats like the Mongols were inflicting on them. ..............
That was not the case with the Khwarizm Shah, who at first glance should have been more than a match for Genghis. Anyway, he wasn't and that was a big psychological blow to the Islamic World. Writers of the time thought the end of world was near.

However, from the ashes of this destruction would rise the eventual Islamisation of the entire Mongol Empire, outside of China and Mongolia.

There was never a big top-down decision coming from the Great Khan that all the Mongols would convert to Islam. Eventually 3 of the 4 Khanates that formed the Mongol Empire would adopt Islam ........https://www.quora.com/Why-did-the-Mongols-embrace-Islam

Image
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frank lee bent
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by frank lee bent »

a must read op ed on brexit. halfway through it references the psychology of the lost empire and the role of this nostalgic worldview that still plays in the national psyche of UK.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-bu ... xf7k8.html
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frank lee bent
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Re: Rise and fall of an Empire

Post by frank lee bent »

BKL, it is a little early in the day for me to be confused. i would hope literate people would be able to debate without resort to ad homs.
if trade was stopped between china and usa today, the military advantage would collapse as it is dependent on supply chain from china.

the yanks still own technology design and the military by dint of massive overspending compared to other cuntries, but that is how they nailed the sovs, with space and arms race spending to the detriment of the civil populace.

now it will happen to them. the physical productive and intellectual capacity for industrial activity is gone now. it is a post industrial backwater with hamburgers as the economy.
i was there 4 months ago.
i was born there.
i left in 1972, so the changes are quite vivid when i visit.
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