How long before air travel returns?

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:48 am

There was a good piece in Nikkei Asia Review yesterday that was mainly about the good relationship between the governments of Cambodia and China. Clearly Cambodia is suffering from the lack of tourists. It was suggested Chinese will be visiting Cambodia in significant numbers. The date of this starting was put as mid May.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 9:01 am

Singapore closed down a whole terminal until November 1st 2021, and they are usually pretty well on the ball.

Anyone expecting to fly cross-continent in June needs a reality check and some kind of insurance to cover for your cancellations. You can only collect so many coupons / credit.

Hopefully regional flights will be starting sooner, but it's all coming down to what the change of season will mean to the way this virus spreads. If the spreading in SEA remains more or less the same maybe the first flights in weeks? Two months? But the question will be which (insane) conditions governments will put in place to allow people to enter.

I have upcoming flights to China and on to Bangkok (mid may), Bangkok (june) and again Bangkok (july) and none of them have officially been cancelled. In fact, they keep sending me schedule changes like crazy. But so far I can't bother to apply for a visa for China because I know 99,9% sure it's not going to happen. Even if China and Thailand will allow me in my 4 days business trip will be become useless because of a 14 day quarantine.

hunter8 · Post by **hunter8** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 12:53 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:36 am
hunter8 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:47 pm The above tinfoil hat comment was unnecessary.

Sticking strictly to science, however, which advises that respiratory viral infections are historically best survived by building herd immunity, would be beneficial to most everyone. Unfortunately, that understanding is not prevalent among policy makers yet. Mother nature cannot be duped, however, they are just prolonging realization of the inevitable.
I think they already understand that. It comes down to the rate at which herd immunity is achieved. If governments do nothing and deliberately allow herd immunity to be achieved as soon as possible, they would be accused of allowing the biggest mass murder in human history. To willingly allow someone to die is criminal negligence, let alone allow potentially millions to perish.

Herd immunity will be achieved, but by slowing the rate of it happening, less people need to die as there is more capacity to give medical aid. It's inevitable that herd immunity will happen. It's not inevitable that millions have to die to achieve it.

It's going to be tough for most people for the forceeable future and only time will tell whether all these travel bans and lock-downs were the correct reaction. It's possible that more people will die in the long term due to the economic impact. We just don't know.

But for now, we know that it's saving lives and surely that's a good enough justification until something else comes to light.

This theory holds no water. Deaths do not happen on a consistently larger scale in the countries that didn’t choose the strategy of imprisoning population in their homes. From my understanding lockdowns in many countries were instigated by first panicked guesstimates of as many as 500k deaths in UK and 2.2m in USA authored by Imperial College in London which were revised by said organization at the end of March to 30k in UK but the floodgates had been opened already.

Now that there is evidence about the real numbers and knowledge of different strategies having less impact on the economy in a few countries, it’s time for them to apply that experience. Of course, they will lose face doing that. This may be the reason it’s not happening yet.

The USA will lead again by example when Trump opens economy. In times like this the world needs leaders who can take a hard but necessary decision.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:02 pm

hunter8 wrote: ↑ Now that there is evidence about the real numbers and knowledge of different strategies having less impact on the economy in a few countries, it’s time for them to apply that experience. Of course, they will lose face doing that. This may be the reason it’s not happening yet.

Just wondering what ‘real numbers’ you have access to. I know a few studies looking for the amount of people currently infected and with antibodies but the numbers they came up with are very inconsistent and not promisingly high.

hunter8 · Post by **hunter8** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:07 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:02 pm
hunter8 wrote: ↑ Now that there is evidence about the real numbers and knowledge of different strategies having less impact on the economy in a few countries, it’s time for them to apply that experience. Of course, they will lose face doing that. This may be the reason it’s not happening yet.
Just wondering what ‘real numbers’ you have access to. I know a few studies looking for the amount of people currently infected and with antibodies but the numbers they came up with are very inconsistent and not promisingly high.

I am talking about the number of deaths published daily. At most it is comparable to a strong strain of flu, like that of the 2016/17 winter in Italy. Nothing like the scary stuff they first estimated it would be.
Same goes for countries that didn’t impose lockdowns, mass die-offs are not happening.

Alex · Post by **Alex** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:43 pm

There's obviously immense pressure to open up as much as possible, as quickly as possible. With regards to air travel, I suspect that will mean more stringent screening in the first place - tests will be more reliable, quicker and cheaper before a vaccine will be available. Add quarantine and/or insurance requirements to this and you're good to go (in between countries that have brought the outbreak down to manageable levels).

Not many countries, if any, will be willing and able to prolong the lockdown longer than necessary. There might be a few outliers that will go down the isolation route, but I'd expect most countries to reopen to foreigners within the next 1-3 months.

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:10 pm

Alex wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 1:43 pm There's obviously immense pressure to open up as much as possible, as quickly as possible. With regards to air travel, I suspect that will mean more stringent screening in the first place - tests will be more reliable, quicker and cheaper before a vaccine will be available. Add quarantine and/or insurance requirements to this and you're good to go (in between countries that have brought the outbreak down to manageable levels).

Not many countries, if any, will be willing and able to prolong the lockdown longer than necessary. There might be a few outliers that will go down the isolation route, but I'd expect most countries to reopen to foreigners within the next 1-3 months.

Australia are openly talking about closure until the end of the year. The cost is about AU$4billion a month for a complete loss of international tourists, which is cheap compared to an economy on it's back because of national lockdowns. Seems Australia is preparing to go down the complete isolation route, or at least preparing the citizenry for that prospect.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 54iw4.html

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:22 pm

atst wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:49 am Looking at flights Australia to Phnom Penh in May nothing but June seems flights available as normal, I've booked 1st June so hopefully June's when they are back on.

Read this...

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal ... 54iw4.html

Doc67 · Post by **Doc67** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:35 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 4:36 am
hunter8 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:47 pm The above tinfoil hat comment was unnecessary.

Sticking strictly to science, however, which advises that respiratory viral infections are historically best survived by building herd immunity, would be beneficial to most everyone. Unfortunately, that understanding is not prevalent among policy makers yet. Mother nature cannot be duped, however, they are just prolonging realization of the inevitable.
I think they already understand that. It comes down to the rate at which herd immunity is achieved. If governments do nothing and deliberately allow herd immunity to be achieved as soon as possible, they would be accused of allowing the biggest mass murder in human history. To willingly allow someone to die is criminal negligence, let alone allow potentially millions to perish.

Herd immunity will be achieved, but by slowing the rate of it happening, less people need to die as there is more capacity to give medical aid. It's inevitable that herd immunity will happen. It's not inevitable that millions have to die to achieve it.

It's going to be tough for most people for the forceeable future and only time will tell whether all these travel bans and lock-downs were the correct reaction. It's possible that more people will die in the long term due to the economic impact. We just don't know.

But for now, we know that it's saving lives and surely that's a good enough justification until something else comes to light.

Herd immunity is a theoretical hope, not a fact. The WHO have been pointing this out. This was supposed to be the silver bullet. It might still be, but just coming at us at 2000fps.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/coronavi ... spartanntp

theKid · Post by **theKid** » Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:45 pm

I assume limited flights on busy routes will return by June. Countries will then require medical certificates (negative Covid, or positive for antibodies) before boarding. Prices will remain very high, there will probably more business travellers than tourists.
TBH, the western countries don’t give two fucks about the tourism industry in SEA and mistrust between countries is very high. Therefor I doubt that there will be any revival of budget travel here anytime soon, not in 2020 for sure.
It may very well happen that China uses this to gain even more influence in Cambodia, “bailing” the tourism sector out by sending hordes of mainlanders here through CCP edict.

How long before air travel returns?

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