Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Phnom Poon
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Phnom Poon » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:40 pm

66% infection ludicrous, but fatality could be more than 2%

(ex-)/smokers at increased risk

.

monstra mihi bona!
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crob
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by crob » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:01 pm

Phnom Poon wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:40 pm
66% infection ludicrous, but fatality could be more than 2%

(ex-)/smokers at increased risk
could... I wouldn't be surprised if it was much more, as I don't trust the numbers coming out of China, that said there probably would be a higher survival rate in western hospitals.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by paparazzi » Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:24 pm

R.O number is how many people are infected by a single person.

This SARS 2 COVID virus l have seen reports that differ from RO 2.7 up to RO 4.5.

Do the maths. In a single year a virus like this that is left unchecked by a vaccine, isolation of infected and their contacts, or lockdowns spreads like wildfire. I could be wrong but my understanding is it could easily spread to around 60% in a year.

This virus is worse than flu but less deadly than SARS 1.

The biggest concern is when the amount of people with complications exceeds the ability of medical services to cope.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by phuketrichard » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:40 am

dam;
75,198 confirmed, 2,009 deaths, 14, 532 recovered ..
so that leaves 58,657 still holding on

Confirmed cases
81 in singapore
74 Japan ( assume not those on the boat)
62 HK
35 Thailand
16 Vietnam
1 Cambodia :-)

5 deaths outside China
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:53 am

paparazzi wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 11:24 pm

This SARS 2 COVID
They keep changing the virus name every week.

Soon it will be BECOV-2 EB ...
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by phuketrichard » Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:57 am

In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kuroneko » Wed Feb 19, 2020 10:38 am

Remembering serious epidemics in my lifetime

Measles is a highly contagious infectious disease caused by the measles virus. Symptoms ... The death rate in the 1920s was around 30% for measles pneumonia.

The World Health Organization and the CDC say in a new report that there were nearly 10 million cases of measles last year, with outbreaks on every continent. An estimated 140,000 people died from measles in 2018, WHO says, up from an all-time low of 90,000 in 2016. And this is with an effective vaccine.

Polio (poliomyelitis) mainly affects children under 5 years of age.[/b]
1 in 200 infections leads to irreversible paralysis. Among those paralysed, 5% to 10% die when their breathing muscles become immobilized.
Cases due to wild poliovirus have decreased by over 99% since 1988, from an estimated 350 000 cases then, to 33 reported cases in 2018.
As long as a single child remains infected, children in all countries are at risk of contracting polio. Failure to eradicate polio from these last remaining strongholds could result in as many as 200 000 new cases every year, within 10 years, all over the world.
In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic became the worst outbreak in the nation's history. Of the nearly 58,000 cases reported that year, 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis.[142] Intensive care medicine has its origin in the fight against polio.[143] Most hospitals in the 1950s had limited access to iron lungs for patients unable to breathe without mechanical assistance. Respiratory centers designed to assist the most severe polio patients, first established in 1952 at the Blegdam Hospital of Copenhagen by Danish anesthesiologist Bjørn Ibsen, were the harbingers of subsequent intensive care units (ICU). (A year later, Ibsen would establish the world's first dedicated ICU.)

I was born at a time when there was no effective vaccine for either disease, and people at the time were generally very worried to say the least.
"Most British doctors and nurses working today will never have treated a case of polio. The closest most of us ever come to the polio virus is swallowing a sugarcube containing the oral vaccine or taking our children for their jabs. Today, we stand on the brink of eradicating polio from the world.
Yet for anyone over the age of 50, polio still casts nightmarish shadows of babies entombed in iron lungs, children hobbling in leg irons and adults confined in wheelchairs. Seemingly appearing out of nowhere in unstoppable epidemics, polio killed or paralysed millions, and mostly affected children. The disease grabbed headlines, stoked panic and drove massive fundraising campaigns. Doctors and scientists were powerless to prevent or treat the scourge. " https://www.rotary-ribi.org/districts/p ... ictNo=1080

Luckily I never contracted polio but I knew people that did, and saw children walking around in leg irons. I contracted measles which was common at the time and in my case almost fatal. Probably people less than 50 year old that have grown up with no worry about contracting serious infectious diseases view COVID-19 as far more serious than those that survived the Polio and Measles epidemics of the past.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by DaveG » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:47 am

Whole families are dying in self quarantine .....Not good...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:56 am

DaveG wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:47 am
Whole families are dying in self quarantine .....Not good...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... n-covid-19
what are the odds of whole families wiped out in days if these 'facts' are really true:

76,000 infected
1,800 died
4 in 5 sick people have mild symptoms only
mostly the elderly and people with underlying diseases are among the seriously sick ones

It just doesn't seem to add up. Waiting for someone to solve the puzzle :popcorn:
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