Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:06 am

"You remembering the last lime lightning struck a virus in a chopper .?"
(Dunc)

Ahh yes, the loveable Hok Lundy.
He came back negative too
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by phuketrichard » Sun Feb 16, 2020 9:28 am

In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by phuketrichard » Sun Feb 16, 2020 11:07 am

oh shit;
Bloomberg) -- A married Japanese couple in their 60s tested positive for the coronavirus after returning home from a Hawaiian vacation, health officials said Saturday, according to the New York Times.
The couple had returned to Nagoya, Japan’s fourth-largest city, on Feb. 7, and a day later he visited a hospital with a fever but was turned away. He was back after two days when he learned he had pneumonia, but he was then released. On Thursday, the man went by ambulance to a hospital.

His wife checked into the hospital Friday with a fever. Both now have the virus.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/finance/compa ... r-BB102IU4


The couple visited Maui and Oahu from Jan. 28 to Feb. 7, and Hawaii officials are now working to piece together their exact itinerary to determine who might have come into close contact with them.

In a news conference Friday, the governor said the male Japanese visitor and his wife were on Maui from Jan. 27 to Feb. 3. They were on Oahu from Feb. 3 to Feb. 7.

State Health Director Bruce Anderson said it’s likely the male visitor was exposed before he left for Hawaii or while on his way here.
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:07 pm

On the cruise ship locked at Yokohama now 355 passengers (out of 3,700 on board) are infected. Being an interesting case outside of China this paints an extremely grim picture about what must be going on in China.

Just imagine what would happen if 10% of the people in
Phnom Penh would become infected? A run for the hills, revolution, exodus to Thailand?
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by newkidontheblock » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:16 pm

What would happen is nothing. Cambodia would simply have an extremely bad flu season. By the end of flu season, everyone would just naturally have immunity to coronavirus. People die of heart attacks and lack of wind (or too much wind) in the Kingdom of Wonder, not the flu, and certainly not coronavirus.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by rozzieoz » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:30 pm

I was going to do a cruise, leaving from Sydney three weeks ago and disembarking in Hong Kong five days ago.

I am so so grateful that I had a change of heart and cancelled it!

I can’t imagine being stuck at sea for god knows how long - .my anxiety would have gone through the roof.

Sometimes there’s a reason something doesn’t “sit right” - from a month after I booked the cruise I felt uneasy.

Once you've read the dictionary, every other book is just a remix.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor » Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:46 pm

newkidontheblock wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:16 pm
What would happen is nothing. Cambodia would simply have an extremely bad flu season. By the end of flu season, everyone would just naturally have immunity to coronavirus. People die of heart attacks and lack of wind (or too much wind) in the Kingdom of Wonder, not the flu, and certainly not coronavirus.
From what I get from several reports a cure doesn’t automatically come with immunity. Reinfections and relapses are at least expected. And not every virus infection ends with either death or immunity. Think herpes viruses...
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. » Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:20 pm

Kammekor wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:07 pm
On the cruise ship locked at Yokohama now 355 passengers (out of 3,700 on board) are infected. Being an interesting case outside of China this paints an extremely grim picture about what must be going on in China.

Just imagine what would happen if 10% of the people in
Phnom Penh would become infected? A run for the hills, revolution, exodus to Thailand?

With 200.000 infected that means around 45.000 requiring intensive care for which Cambodia has less than 1000 ICU beds available.
Which will mean that probably places like the new stadiums will have to be turned into places where you get quarantined without ICU, with the terrible sanitation we can expect lots of other airborne diseases to spread among the quarantined.
Assuming that somehow the 200.000 is the maximum amount of infected with the spread being contained (unlikely) the death rate will be around:
1% for the mild cases and 35% ~ 40% of the intensive care patients that don't get an ICU. 16% for the lucky sever cases which get international standard ICU.

So around 20.000 dead.

But if this runs rampant I strongly doubt it will only affect 10% of PP especially considering Khmer eating habits.

So most likely you will see all other countries closing the borders (maybe not China), Cambodia begging China for help (if they are in a better situation by then they might be able to, otherwise tough luck), Phnom Penh shutdown, restaurants and many hotels on rental contracts going bankrupt, hospitals unable to cope with the cases and generally people freaking out.
If it begins to spread into schools you might see many schools suffering greatly economically, especially those that charge by the month.


Also for those that say that you survive and get immune, this isn't a bacteria it's a coronavirus, like the flu you can get it several times, as they continually mutate slightly which is why flu vaccination isn't very effective. Cases of re-infection have just been proved in China, you can find scholarly articles on it.
Also it doesn't only affect the lungs but also the kidney and testicles with permanent damage due to the presence of Ace-2 receptors in them which is what the virus currently targets.

General shit show will ensure if the virus spreads rapidly and if big daddy China cannot help.
I totally see Khmer hospital staff that have paid for their job to just don't show up to work especially if they don't have enough equipment.

If it goes rampant in Cambodia and get a maximum of 70% of the population (assuming 10% somehow naturally immune, 15% too isolated to infect, 5% just lucky) and that it does at least 3 rounds before we come up with some serious cure/vaccine it could kill 1.5 to 2.5 millions in around 6 seasons.

This is fully based on available data from internationally recognized sources.

So we have the limited infection scenario of 200k in PP and negligible infected in the rest of the country followed by a very successful containment of 20k ~ 25k casualties and some serious economic damage.
And the (almost) worst case scenario that it kills enough people to bring the country to his knees but it should be slow enough not to go into anarchy.

Absolute worst case scenario is that it turns endemic and Cambodian will just have to live with losing 3% - 4% of the population to it each year and have 0 tourism.

On the posirive side the whore mongers might be able to get the prices they used to get 20 years ago once again if one the worst case scenarios becomes a reality.
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Sun Feb 16, 2020 3:52 pm

Not sure where you get the 10% death rate from, Jack
nor how you arrive at your other estimations.

With due respect to all those making predictions, including others above, i don't see the evidence that gives credibility to any of these theories.

The head of WHO only today repeated that nobody has any idea on how this epidemic will unfold.
No idea, at all.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by mouytiet » Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:02 pm

2-3% based on countries that can supply decent health care, does Cambodia have 10's of thousands of repirators ready to go, if they do can people afford the cost of ICU in the country, ive seen the bills they are horrific, do u not think that % would be higher in Cambo.
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