Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

Alex wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2020 2:02 pm John Hopkins University modeled the outbreak at the end of January (https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public ... v-model-2/) and the result was 58,000 cases across mainland China back then, when the Chinese reported only 12,000. Due to the high number of mild cases as well as hospitals in Wuhan getting overrun, others have also suggested that the actual number of cases is much higher than reported. So the latest spike might just be a case of (partially) catching up with reality.
Very interesting work ^^ but very early days.
Early days for both accurately gauging how this epidemic will break, too many unknowns still -
and very early days for this kind of modelling.

Not knocking it - but it is a pretty crude tool.
The numbers in Figure 3 show big discrepancies (except maybe for the top 4-5 countries)
"Estimated Imported Risk" show much lower numbers than the actual "Reported Numbers"
Given that the latter are only the cases that the country has found, the discrepancy would be even greater.

Still, it is very interesting work.
By the end of this virus, when we can see how the epidemic actually played out, and they can firm up the variables a bit more correctly - they might have a useful tool.
That may be of practical value next time around.
And yes, the China prediction was probably not too far off.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by chiaojiang »

Image

To move corpses, Wuchang District funeral home been hiring 20 carriers, aged from 16 to 50, not afraid of ghost, courageous, strengthful.
4000rmb/4hrs (approx 570usd) paid in cash right after work, provided one meal. Work from 0 am to 4 am.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor »

You better put your money in quarantine with your mother in law:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12415 ... us-COVID19

"The killer bug coronavirus, officially named COVID19 by the World Health Organisation (WHO), may be able to survive on surfaces including door handles, public toilets and currency, according to a top disease expert. Dr Martin Wiselka, consultant on infectious diseases at the University of Leicester NHS Trust, warned Britain may be "on the cusp of something we might not be able to control"."

Great the experts connected the dots too!

China will 'clean' money from infected areas with UV or heating and quarantine the money afterwards for 14 days. I don;t really get it though, last time I was in China it was all ALIpay.... Had to make a major effort to get cash...
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by atst »

I thought China cleaned all thier dirty money in Sihanoukville
I'm standing up, so I must be straight
What's a poor man do when the blues keep following him around.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Khmer_Risotto »

Our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year,” Capital Economics, the consultancy, said. “If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in quarter-on-quarter terms for the first time since 2009.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inve ... -n7l00pnln

Might be the black swan event that triggers a recession. We're overdue for one.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor »

Khmer_Risotto wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:09 pm
Our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year,” Capital Economics, the consultancy, said. “If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in quarter-on-quarter terms for the first time since 2009.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inve ... -n7l00pnln

Might be the black swan event that triggers a recession. We're overdue for one.
But stocks went up last week..... :stir:
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Khmer_Risotto »

Kammekor wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:24 pm
Khmer_Risotto wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:09 pm
Our best guess is that the economic disruption related to the coronavirus will cost the world economy over $280 billion in the first quarter of this year,” Capital Economics, the consultancy, said. “If we’re right, then this will mean that global GDP will not grow in quarter-on-quarter terms for the first time since 2009.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/inve ... -n7l00pnln

Might be the black swan event that triggers a recession. We're overdue for one.
But stocks went up last week..... :stir:
:beer3: SP500 was at all time highs in Oct '07, US was in a recession 3 months later ;-)
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. »

BREAKING:

One of the lady on the ship that disembarked yesterday in shianukville and than took plane to PP airport was tested positive on her return to Malaysia.

So if there was one probably there are many.

Wondering if it's the same lady that hugged the prime minister....

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... ?cid=FBcna
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by yongchi »

Jack.R. wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:42 pm BREAKING:

One of the lady on the ship that disembarked yesterday in shianukville and than took plane to PP airport was tested positive on her return to Malaysia.

So if there was one probably there are many.

Wondering if it's the same lady that hugged the prime minister....

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... ?cid=FBcna
Does anyone know what kind of tests were conducted in Cambodia?
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by LoukBongThom »

yongchi wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 11:38 pm
Jack.R. wrote: Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:42 pm BREAKING:

One of the lady on the ship that disembarked yesterday in shianukville and than took plane to PP airport was tested positive on her return to Malaysia.

So if there was one probably there are many.

Wondering if it's the same lady that hugged the prime minister....

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/as ... ?cid=FBcna
Does anyone know what kind of tests were conducted in Cambodia?
The 83-year old was test positive on landing in Malaysia. Her husband was tested negative. Not sure if any test was done during disembarking.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKBN2090IW
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