Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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AzalKH
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by AzalKH »

Stinkman wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:03 am Today's update of new COVID-19 cases from China was unusually late, and now we know why. Wow.

15,000 new cases were just now reported for Feb. 12th. Most new cases are from Hubei Province. Up to over 60k total. That is near 5 times the average daily reported number to date. 250 new reported deaths, taking the new total reported deaths to 1360. There is almost always a second daily update in a few hours from now. We'll see if that shows another massive jump. Either way, it must be noted that 45,000 of those 60,000 cases are reported as "mild". Still, that means 16% of all reported cases are classified as "serious", meaning requiring hospitalization.

Maybe not really a sudden spike in new cases in the past 24 hours, but a backlog of older test results probably just came in from their multiple labs performing all the actual testing of collected samples? Not sure. Or maybe they have switched to "clinical diagnosis" instead of test kits for the people only showing mild symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
New clinical test methods are being included now, explaining the huge jump in cases. However the death rate increase isn't related to that, so it is a true increase.
The commission noted that it had begun including cases diagnosed through new clinical methods from Thursday.

You may know that there has been a lot of debate in the media in recent days about a change in the way of counting figures by the National Health Commission.

There was a suggestion that from 7 February, people who had tested positive but showed no symptoms, were not counted as confirmed cases. It has been very difficult to pin down the exact changes, and I’ll try to do that today.

But from my reading, it’s likely that this huge jump in new confirmed cases reflects an adjustment of calculations, rather than a massively steep increase in actual new cases. I’ll keep updating you on this as we get more information on it.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... -live-news
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Stinkman
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Stinkman »

AzalKH wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:51 am New clinical test methods are being included now, explaining the huge jump in cases. However the death rate increase isn't related to that, so it is a true increase.
True. But comparing the jump in deaths and the jump in cases STILL gives an overall death rate of 2.2%, which has been incredibly consistent since day one. With the major change in methodology for reporting cases, you would expect that overall date rate to plummet. Maybe this spike in deaths is an outlier. If not, things will get a bit ugly.
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jah steu
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by jah steu »

Kammekor wrote: 1. official it’s not airborne yet.

Anyway, it’s interesting to see how it evolves.
“Airborne transmission occurs when bacteria or viruses travel on dust particles or on small respiratory droplets that may become aerosolized when people sneeze, cough, laugh, or exhale. They hang in the air much like invisible smoke. They can travel on air currents over considerable distances.”
Isn’t this how the corona virus is partly being spread? If not, my mistake...
Anyway, as you say everyone is holding their breath(!) to see how this plays out.


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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by DaveG »

Here...we will be fine,

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Doc67 »

Stinkman wrote: Thu Feb 13, 2020 7:03 am Today's update of new COVID-19 cases from China was unusually late, and now we know why. Wow.

15,000 new cases were just now reported for Feb. 12th. Most new cases are from Hubei Province. Up to over 60k total. That is near 5 times the average daily reported number to date. 250 new reported deaths, taking the new total reported deaths to 1360. There is almost always a second daily update in a few hours from now. We'll see if that shows another massive jump. Either way, it must be noted that 45,000 of those 60,000 cases are reported as "mild". Still, that means 16% of all reported cases are classified as "serious", meaning requiring hospitalization.

Maybe not really a sudden spike in new cases in the past 24 hours, but a backlog of older test results probably just came in from their multiple labs performing all the actual testing of collected samples? Not sure. Or maybe they have switched to "clinical diagnosis" instead of test kits for the people only showing mild symptoms.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Here's a bar chart, for the deaths...

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Brody
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by DaveG »

242 deaths yesterday !!!!, that is a lot of bodies to try and burn, especially if this continues to rise, I wonder how they are coping and how they are storing the bodies..
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Spigzy »

I think the classification of deaths has been changed to a broader definition, hence the sharp increase reported in the chart above. All the same, it means the preceding figures were all nonsense & the number of cases (not deaths) is much bigger than even those figures; perhaps a reason for the extreme measures being seen in China at least.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51482994
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Alex »

John Hopkins University modeled the outbreak at the end of January (https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public ... v-model-2/) and the result was 58,000 cases across mainland China back then, when the Chinese reported only 12,000. Due to the high number of mild cases as well as hospitals in Wuhan getting overrun, others have also suggested that the actual number of cases is much higher than reported. So the latest spike might just be a case of (partially) catching up with reality.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by paparazzi »

'Clinical diagnosis' involves no virus test kit ( likely short supply) but a CT scan. If it shows lower lung has fluid build up then then they suspect they are infected with the virus.

This is a new category.

Likely kits are in short supply so this is the next best thing.
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