Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Phnom Poon
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Phnom Poon »

there could be more deaths, or more cases, or any number of other factors
but you have no clue, you're just guessing, and trying to justify your view
please post evidence or insight

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by hunter8 »

SternAAlbifrons wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:11 pm Hunter, may i ask - does this malnutrition thing, specifically related to the death rate for this virus, come from any credible source?
or is it just your theory?
Go with one noodles meal a day for two weeks and all kinds of viruses will start attacking the body. The only source of information now is from China. As we don’t have much trust in it, we are free to guesstimate as we please. I am inclined to think it will be classified as just another flu when the dust settles.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

1/ I just did a 15 minute (ie, quite thorough) google search of "coronavirus" and "malnutrition" plus a few other keywords.
Guess what?
Yes, you are right - not one single reference popped up.

2/ All the experts are saying there is no way of knowing yet what the mortality rate is, anywhere - let alone being able to compare rates with any other places, viruses or situations.

Maybe we should be studying what the experts are saying in more detail instead of wasting our time debating wild theories that have no substance at all - endlessly.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Doc67 »

yong wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:04 am https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coron ... r_id%25%25

Trapped in cabins, travelers find dream voyage a nightmare
Passengers endure dirty sheets and rooms as infections jump to 135
JUN ISHIHARA and YOSUKE KURABE, Nikkei staff writers
February 11, 2020 06:04 JST


The quarantine began after a passenger who disembarked in Hong Kong tested positive. The infected include two restaurant workers, two drink servers, a room cleaner and an operator of a bus tour that the original sick passenger took.

Well that doesn't sound too good. So much for a 2.4 spread rate. They need well under 1.0 to contain it. This person has an infection rate of 6 and counting...
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Phnom Poon
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Phnom Poon »

at least post hypotheses that make sense and are consistent
for example the reported deaths are all rather likely to have been hospitalized
are the hospitals running out of food?
or were they all discovered dead in freezing apartments?

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by hunter8 »

You need to google “malnutrition” and “immune system”. It is common knowledge that the body needs a lot of elements and vitamins to fight off viruses, since ancient times. They even sell them in pills these days, imagine that! Though eating veggies and fruits is much more efficient.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

hunter8 wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:30 pm
SternAAlbifrons wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:11 pm Hunter, may i ask - does this malnutrition thing, specifically related to the death rate for this virus, come from any credible source?
or is it just your theory?
Go with one noodles meal a day for two weeks and all kinds of viruses will start attacking the body. The only source of information now is from China. As we don’t have much trust in it, we are free to guesstimate as we please. I am inclined to think it will be classified as just another flu when the dust settles.
So, it is just your theory, only, solely, bravely, out there on an island all alone in this world - kinda like a Don Quixote quest.
- and it flies in the face of all the experts on the planet.

Maybe you should write a "paper?
or call the head of WHO to wise him up?
Or call CNN to put out the word?
or Mao Tse Tung - or whatever the blokes name is these days - he'll get right onto it.

But it is getting to be just flack and static to our discussion here - totally unsupported but endlessly repeated.

PS - the reason i am challenging this, Hunter, is because i (firmly) believe that false rumour mongering is a highly irresponsible thing to do, especially this week. (nothing personal, at all)
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by starkmonster »

phuketrichard wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 7:55 am seems to be really killing more these past few days (Saturday it stood at 720) so 293 in 3 days an over 8 ,100 new cases

1,013 deaths, 42,767 infected ( reported) 3,950 recovered
28 counties + China
bet we haven't seen the worst yet
You have to use cohort analysis, to make sense of the deaths as of course there is a lag time between detection and death. It seems that most die on days 10 to 14 of being symptomatic, so you would expect he number of deaths to peak roughly two weeks after the the number of cases peaked.

So providing there isn't a large outbreak anywhere outside of Wuhan you would expect to the the number of daily deaths rise until the 18th and then start to subside:

Image

Of course there are some big variables in all of this. It might turn out that the ability confirm cases earlier on was limited, so their was also a lag in confirmation, in which case the number of deaths may come down sooner. There is also the possibility that with health services stretched, mild cases are either being turned away, not tested or choosing to stay away, in which case the number of infections may be higher than reported.

You can also expect the official number of recovered to start sky rocketing in the next two week, as the recovery window is 21-24 days.

At the moment there are only two places on earth with a non-trivial number of cases and exponential growth in new cases, they are Hong Kong and Heilongjiang (northeast China), so they are the places to watch. All other provinces in China the number of new cases are either tailing off or seeing non-exponential growth.

You can view all locations here in an interactive map:

https://hgis.uw.edu/virus/

The drop off might just be a case of the virus loosing it's virility, a virus has RNA rather than DNA which means it can mutate and "evolve" much faster than DNA based life and evolution rewards less deadly forms of a virus as it spreads more quickly as its carriers are mobile, where as carriers of it's more deadly variants are stationary, in bed, hospital or possibly the morgue.

This is one theory as to why the Spanish flu was so deadly, it was the one time in history where the pattern of the badly sick being stationary and the mildly ill being mobile was reversed. Troops in the trenches that were mildly ill were kept where they were, while those that severely ill were sent all over the place.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by hunter8 »

SternAAlbifrons wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:48 pm - and it flies in the face of all the experts on the planet.
Well, what are they saying exactly?
You just confirmed yourself they are saying they have no clue yet because of insufficient data. As it stands now anyone’s guess could be as good. Not to mention they are divided in their opinions too. Giving advice to wash hands is not an opinion, i’ve been doing that often in Asian countries, coronavirus or not. What else of significance did they tell apart from common preventive measures against infectious diseases?
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

hunter8 wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:57 pm
SternAAlbifrons wrote: Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:48 pm - and it flies in the face of all the experts on the planet.
Well, what are they saying exactly?
You just confirmed yourself they are saying they have no clue yet because of insufficient data. As it stands now anyone’s guess could be as good. Not to mention they are divided in their opinions too. Giving advice to wash hands is not an opinion, i’ve been doing that often in Asian countries, coronavirus or not. What else of significance did they tell apart from common preventive measures against infectious diseases?
Hunter, they told me not to waste my time, or other's, trying to guess the mortality rate and then spread my own personal theories around the internet.
They told me, by omission, that malnutrition is not a significant issue in the current situation.

What else did they tell me?
First i spend a lot of time debunking your unsupported theories (in the interests of quelling false rumours)
Then you want me to do your research for you.
Go look up the credible evidence yourself - instead of spreading false theories on CEO!!.
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