Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:08 am

jah steu wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:31 pm
From someone I trust. Just IMHO.
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900 people have died in one city in 1-2 months
The death toll is still rising
97 people died yesterday, almost all in that one city.

'just the flu
:facepalm:

If you want to be simplistic about it, - multiply 97 x every big city on the planet x 24 hours x Xmonths
and graph that on an steadily steepening curve.
But please - don't be simplistic. Listen to those who actually understand these things - the virologists, epidemiologists and the other informed public health experts. (not Facebook,eg
Pleeease!
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by hunter8 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:20 am

It’s been a long time, many are likely dying partly from malnutrition from disrupted supply chains. Even a common flu can finish the job and kill a weakened body.

The Chinese man who got sick in Cambodia seems to have tested negative and will be released from hospital. They said he didn’t have other health problems.
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:05 am

hunter8 wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:20 am

The Chinese man who got sick in Cambodia seems to have tested negative and will be released from hospital.
That is really interesting, Hunter.
Tested, but a negative result.

This is one of the big problems with the different tests they have developed so far - lots of false negatives.
New testing methods are being developed rapidly - as research into the exact nature of the virus continues. However apparently there is something about all Corona viruses that makes them inherently difficult to ID positively.

Almost every country outside of the wealthy modern world is struggling to test effectively.
Basically, we could probably assume with confidence that some unnamed countries have no effective testing regimes in place - at all.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by hunter8 » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:10 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:05 am
hunter8 wrote:
Mon Feb 10, 2020 10:20 am

The Chinese man who got sick in Cambodia seems to have tested negative and will be released from hospital.
That is really interesting, Hunter.
Tested, but a negative result.

This is one of the big problems with the different tests they have developed so far - lots of false negatives.
New testing methods are being developed rapidly - as research into the exact nature of the virus continues. However apparently there is something about all Corona viruses that makes them inherently difficult to ID positively.

Almost every country outside of the wealthy modern world is struggling to test effectively.
Basically, we could probably assume with confidence that some unnamed countries have no effective testing regimes in place - at all.
I mean the news said he is testing negative now, as in recovered. He tested positive before to be put in hospital, so i guess the test they use is effective.
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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:17 am

OK, gotcha, Hunter ^^ my mistake.
False negatives are still a big issue tho', and false positives also.
Even in USA, with the best testing available.

"Tests being used on US patients suspected of carrying the coronavirus ravaging China don’t always work, and throw up false results, according to the head of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)."
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by paparazzi » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:59 am

The problem is you need to quarantine people who may develop illness as many are spreading the virus without displaying illness. Thats a difficult task.

The other less attractive option is let it burn out meaning a widespread problem throughout the world. This will bring about herd immunity.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Mon Feb 10, 2020 12:35 pm

God, and everyone here, knows i am not an automatic sucker for modern medicine. I am a fierce critic of BigPharma for example.
But i do have great respect of much of the Public Health sector - and specifically, i reckon modern epidemiology is by far the best hope we have for this kind of problem.

SARS was 15yrs+ ago.
The response was a little clumsy at first, but because basic epidemiological principles are already well imbedded in our health systems, they swung into action for this new threat very speedily. And contained it quite quickly.
Much work has been focussed on this issues since SARS, and so knowledge and protocols have developed even more.

I have confidence that the combined global efforts of "the experts", and most governments, will be able to limit the damage significantly.
Some very interesting (and detailed) info below on the SARS response, and how these things are managed.
The first one is probably the most readable

https://www.nap.edu/read/10915/chapter/3
The story of the emergence, spread, and control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is the latest, most vivid episode of a microbial threat in our highly connected world. The SARS epidemic of 2002–2003 not only demonstrated the ease with which a local outbreak can rapidly transform into a worldwide epidemic, but also how news of such a threat can travel faster than a microbe. Notably, the experience demonstrated how effectively the global public health community can collaborate to contain a novel microbial threat.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92476/
THE WHO RESPONSE TO SARS AND PREPARATIONS FOR THE FUTURE. ... Initially recognized as a global threat in mid-March 2003, SARS was successfully contained in less than 4 months, largely because of an unprecedented level of international collaboration and cooperation.

Learning from SARS: Preparing for the Next Disease Outbreak: Workshop Summary.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK92460/
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. » Mon Feb 10, 2020 3:27 pm

Part of a series of videos going into a great deal of details on the coronavirus. Regular updates.

This damn virus spreads so incredibly easily.

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor » Mon Feb 10, 2020 4:59 pm

Here some writing about why Novel Corona shouldn't be compared to the Influenza virus (yet).

Basically they say it's too soon to make comparisons.

https://www.bluechipsupply.com/blogs/ne ... is-worse-1
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by sigmoid » Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:30 pm

This virus thing will soon be yesterday's news after fizzling out...

Vietnam discharges three more nCoV patients

Three Vietnamese workers who tested positive for new coronavirus infection after returning from a training trip in Wuhan were released from hospital Monday.

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/news/vietn ... 52896.html
The patients - two women, aged 23 and 29, and a 30-year-old man - all hail from Vinh Phuc Province, 40 km from Hanoi. They were among the eight workers of Japan-based Nihon Plast Company sent to Wuhan City, the center of the new, deadly pneumonia virus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, last November. They returned to Vietnam on January 17.

The trio was treated at the National Hospital of Tropical Diseases in Hanoi. After 14 days in isolation, all patients showed no fever, coughing and breathing complications. Subsequent testing via RT-PCR revealed they were free of the new coronavirus.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The country had confirmed 14 cases of nCoV infection as of Sunday morning, with nine in Vinh Phuc, three in HCMC and one each in Khanh Hoa and Thanh Hoa. Among eight workers returning from Wuhan, six tested positive for the virus, and two others are awaiting results.

Vietnam has so far discharged six patients from hospital after doctors declared them free of the new coronavirus.

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