Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Jack.R.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:23 pm

:horse:
Kammekor wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 10:22 am
canucklhead wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:47 am
There are reports of massive under reporting of deaths coming from China. Bodies piling up at crematoriums etc....
Its way more serious than they let on.
My guess there's a massive downplay going on to prevent social unrest. That would be the end of the current 'management' and those will do all in their power to remain in control.

Just one example why I don't trust the numbers. On the Lanmei flight from Wuhan to Sihanoukville on Jan 23rd were 73 people. 4 have proven to be infected (5.5%). Two were family of each other, so maybe they infected each other. Even if I count just 3 of them the percentage of infected people on that plane was 3 / 73 = 4.1%.

On Jan 23rd the official amount of infected people worldwide was about 844 (different sources show slightly different numbers). What are the odds of having 4 of those 844 people on the same flight with just 73 people? On the 23rd the Wuhan lockdown was just starting with still tens of flights leaving.

The odds are so low you can't express it in a comprehensible number. So the odds of the number of 844 being correct at that time are extremely low too, IMO.
To get just one passenger on the flight, if all passenger where from Whuan 0.0056% chance.
But 4 on one flight? Statistically null unless it did spread on the flight (which since planes recirculate air it's not impossible)
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by frizzie77 » Thu Feb 06, 2020 7:57 pm

Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:26 pm
For those 'experts' who are claiming that this report is a hoax. Here's a link to the Taiwan Times article that originally published the data. The Taiwan Times has been a reliable source of information and it's highly unlikely that they would publish information that would be detrimental to their credibility on a highly volatile matter such as the Corona virus. Here's the link to the original article:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
I'm sure you are so familiar with the credibility of this publication, that you're writing its name wrong. Twice.
It's called Taiwan News, is only published online, and has no interest in fueling anti-Chinese sentiments whatsoever, as these two recent headlines clearly indicate:
  • Video shows interior of new Wuhan 'hospital' resembles prison
  • Rumors rife as China's Xi disappears from public view amid virus outbreak
So yes, a 'very reliable source of information'...
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Kammekor
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:21 pm

Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:57 pm
Kammekor wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:32 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm
Image

Again, I don’t believe any of the numbers published
If you compare the two 'screenshots' it looks more like a hoax than a real thing. Not that I believe the numbers published, but this one seems too easy to debunk.

Claims are these (higher) numbers were published on Tencent's website.
So how do you propose to "debunk" the numbers other than to claim that this is a "hoax". If it is a "hoax" it has happened 3 times. On the official Tencent website.
The only resemblance between the pictures is there are four numbers which have the same color. Everything else (menu, texts, color, background) is different.

Again, I don’t believe any of the official numbers. I do a lot of business with China, but even when I ask my business partners about it they are extremely reluctant to say anything because the punishments are severe. I consider these pictures a hoax, but not the message they want to bring across.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by newkidontheblock » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:21 pm

frizzie77 wrote:It's called Taiwan News, is only published online, and has no interest in fueling anti-Chinese sentiments
It is most definitely pro-Chinese. The majority of Taiwanese are ethnically Chinese from Guandong and Fujian. They look out for the interests of Chinese everywhere.

However, it is anti-communist, anti-authoritarian regime, and not under the control of the Xinhua news agency.

Just wanted to clarify.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by WildA » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:27 pm

Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:26 pm
WildA wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:05 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=5cce9WjL

This is a screenshot of the "official numbers" from China regarding the 2019 nCoVirus.

There are two sets of numbers. One "official" and the others show a MASSIVE spike. The spike was quickly removed and replaced with the "official numbers" moments later. The main problem with this is that reports from Taiwan said that this is the third time this has happened. It's almost like a whistle blower is trying to get the real numbers out to the rest of the world. Like a Business that has two sets of books. One for the "official numbers" and the other set of real numbers for insiders only. I don't know, but if the second set of numbers are the real numbers, we're all screwed.
That screenshot shows a blatant fake IMHO.
For those 'experts' who are claiming that this report is a hoax. Here's a link to the Taiwan Times article that originally published the data. The Taiwan Times has been a reliable source of information and it's highly unlikely that they would publish information that would be detrimental to their credibility on a highly volatile matter such as the Corona virus. Here's the link to the original article:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
I'm not saying anything is a hoax, all I'm saying is that that screenshot is a blatant fake. Look at the fonts
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by yongchi » Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:45 pm

Kammekor wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:21 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:57 pm
Kammekor wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:32 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm
Image

Again, I don’t believe any of the numbers published
If you compare the two 'screenshots' it looks more like a hoax than a real thing. Not that I believe the numbers published, but this one seems too easy to debunk.

Claims are these (higher) numbers were published on Tencent's website.
So how do you propose to "debunk" the numbers other than to claim that this is a "hoax". If it is a "hoax" it has happened 3 times. On the official Tencent website.
The only resemblance between the pictures is there are four numbers which have the same color. Everything else (menu, texts, color, background) is different.

Again, I don’t believe any of the official numbers. I do a lot of business with China, but even when I ask my business partners about it they are extremely reluctant to say anything because the punishments are severe. I consider these pictures a hoax, but not the message they want to bring across.
What keeps me on the fence is that the fatality rate would be much higher than what has been reported internationally.
Granted, the international numbers are generally lower so the margin for error is larger; the fatality rate may well go up.
Alternatively, the hospital system is not overwhelmed in the rest of the world, which may keep the rate down.

Excluding China mainland but including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macao and the rest of the world we had a rate of 2 / 268 this morning as per this site:
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/t ... rus-cases/
(Last update: 6 February 2020 at 8:19 a.m. ET)
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by atst » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:20 pm

If I remember the swine flu number off deaths keeped changing and near the end of the outbreak hundreds of people came back to life from the original figures
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Big'n » Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:22 pm

WildA wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:27 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:26 pm
WildA wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:05 pm
Big'n wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm
https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=5cce9WjL

This is a screenshot of the "official numbers" from China regarding the 2019 nCoVirus.

There are two sets of numbers. One "official" and the others show a MASSIVE spike. The spike was quickly removed and replaced with the "official numbers" moments later. The main problem with this is that reports from Taiwan said that this is the third time this has happened. It's almost like a whistle blower is trying to get the real numbers out to the rest of the world. Like a Business that has two sets of books. One for the "official numbers" and the other set of real numbers for insiders only. I don't know, but if the second set of numbers are the real numbers, we're all screwed.
That screenshot shows a blatant fake IMHO.
For those 'experts' who are claiming that this report is a hoax. Here's a link to the Taiwan Times article that originally published the data. The Taiwan Times has been a reliable source of information and it's highly unlikely that they would publish information that would be detrimental to their credibility on a highly volatile matter such as the Corona virus. Here's the link to the original article:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
I'm not saying anything is a hoax, all I'm saying is that that screenshot is a blatant fake. Look at the fonts
Just for the record, can you tell me the difference between a hoax and a fake?

Have you even read the article?

I have looked at the fonts and I can't discern any differences, except that one has been copied more than once resulting in a degradation of the quality of the image.

Tell you what, give me your contact information and I will give you the hospital and the name of my wife's assistant who was admitted to a hospital yesterday right here in Phnom Penh for "flu like symptoms" and you can make a proper diagnosis whether or not he has been infected with the Corona virus. The hospital doesn't have enough test kits, so we can all depend on your expertise.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by yong » Thu Feb 06, 2020 11:40 pm

Dafug is this

Jack.R.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Jack.R. » Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:40 am

British man 3rd case in the UK caught the coronavirus outside China, somewhere else in Asia. Anyone knows more? What's the matter with the secrecy?
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