Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Doc67 »

clutchcargo wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 8:44 am Share market doesn't seem to care too much...is is delusional and underestimating the impact to world markets?
If you had came onto this thread on Monday morning and said buy Cathay Pacific and BA shares, you would have been laughed off the planet. I suppose when Cathay asks (tells) it's staff to take 3 weeks unpaid leave, the bean counters really like that and value their shares higher.

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by paparazzi »

With a World economic power in shut down the markets going up seems out of step with reality. Seems some Governments, especially the Chinese, are pumping huge amounts of money into their economy.

Question is how long can they sustain this???

Markets seem to reflect the input of money plus a confidence that the virus can be contained. Also perhaps that a vaccine is on the horizon.

Well its hard to see the markets continuing to go up for a longer period without some very positive news on the virus front. China will not kick start the factories again in high virus effected areas till the number of infections declines very significantly.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by phuketrichard »

this takes the outbreak to a whole other level

Among the cases was a newborn baby, diagnosed just 30 hours after being born.

As the numbers surge with no sign of abating, the Communist government is clamping down on news media and the internet in an effort to control the narrative about the crisis.

Both state media and more conservative channels have been advised to focus on more positive stories and several internet platforms have removed any reports or negativity suggesting any Chinese government shortcomings in dealing with the situation.
Also in Japan, the chief executive of the Tokyo Olympics set for later this year admitted organisers were “extremely worried” about how the virus could affect the Summer Games, but the International Olympic Committee urged calm.

Italy announced that passengers from every international flight would be scanned for fevers, while Vietnam joined a growing list of countries banning arrivals from China.

Thousands of Chinese tourists risked being stranded in Bali after the Indonesian government suspended flights to and from mainland China.
https://www.thephuketnews.com/china-cla ... rghFZKwEQA
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor »

canucklhead wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 9:47 am There are reports of massive under reporting of deaths coming from China. Bodies piling up at crematoriums etc....
Its way more serious than they let on.
My guess there's a massive downplay going on to prevent social unrest. That would be the end of the current 'management' and those will do all in their power to remain in control.

Just one example why I don't trust the numbers. On the Lanmei flight from Wuhan to Sihanoukville on Jan 23rd were 73 people. 4 have proven to be infected (5.5%). Two were family of each other, so maybe they infected each other. Even if I count just 3 of them the percentage of infected people on that plane was 3 / 73 = 4.1%.

On Jan 23rd the official amount of infected people worldwide was about 844 (different sources show slightly different numbers). What are the odds of having 4 of those 844 people on the same flight with just 73 people? On the 23rd the Wuhan lockdown was just starting with still tens of flights leaving.

The odds are so low you can't express it in a comprehensible number. So the odds of the number of 844 being correct at that time are extremely low too, IMO.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Anchor Moy »

^
Among the cases was a newborn baby, diagnosed just 30 hours after being born.

It's not at all surprising. From memory, the baby was born to a mother who had the virus, in a Wuhan hospital which was full of sick people with the virus.
From what they say, Wuhan city structures are on overload and they are asking for help. One of the reasons that so many people are getting infected in Wuhan, is that individual family members have nowhere to go to quarantine, so whole families are being infected.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Big'n »

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=5cce9WjL

This is a screenshot of the "official numbers" from China regarding the 2019 nCoVirus.

There are two sets of numbers. One "official" and the others show a MASSIVE spike. The spike was quickly removed and replaced with the "official numbers" moments later. The main problem with this is that reports from Taiwan said that this is the third time this has happened. It's almost like a whistle blower is trying to get the real numbers out to the rest of the world. Like a Business that has two sets of books. One for the "official numbers" and the other set of real numbers for insiders only. I don't know, but if the second set of numbers are the real numbers, we're all screwed.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Kammekor »

Big'n wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm Image

If you compare the two 'screenshots' it looks more like a hoax than a real thing. Not that I believe the numbers published, but this one seems too easy to debunk.

Claims are these (higher) numbers were published on Tencent's website.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Big'n »

Kammekor wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:32 pm
Big'n wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm Image

If you compare the two 'screenshots' it looks more like a hoax than a real thing. Not that I believe the numbers published, but this one seems too easy to debunk.

Claims are these (higher) numbers were published on Tencent's website.
So how do you propose to "debunk" the numbers other than to claim that this is a "hoax". If it is a "hoax" it has happened 3 times. On the official Tencent website.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by WildA »

Big'n wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=5cce9WjL

This is a screenshot of the "official numbers" from China regarding the 2019 nCoVirus.

There are two sets of numbers. One "official" and the others show a MASSIVE spike. The spike was quickly removed and replaced with the "official numbers" moments later. The main problem with this is that reports from Taiwan said that this is the third time this has happened. It's almost like a whistle blower is trying to get the real numbers out to the rest of the world. Like a Business that has two sets of books. One for the "official numbers" and the other set of real numbers for insiders only. I don't know, but if the second set of numbers are the real numbers, we're all screwed.
That screenshot shows a blatant fake IMHO.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Big'n »

WildA wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:05 pm
Big'n wrote: Thu Feb 06, 2020 5:15 pm https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... k=5cce9WjL

This is a screenshot of the "official numbers" from China regarding the 2019 nCoVirus.

There are two sets of numbers. One "official" and the others show a MASSIVE spike. The spike was quickly removed and replaced with the "official numbers" moments later. The main problem with this is that reports from Taiwan said that this is the third time this has happened. It's almost like a whistle blower is trying to get the real numbers out to the rest of the world. Like a Business that has two sets of books. One for the "official numbers" and the other set of real numbers for insiders only. I don't know, but if the second set of numbers are the real numbers, we're all screwed.
That screenshot shows a blatant fake IMHO.
For those 'experts' who are claiming that this report is a hoax. Here's a link to the Taiwan Times article that originally published the data. The Taiwan Times has been a reliable source of information and it's highly unlikely that they would publish information that would be detrimental to their credibility on a highly volatile matter such as the Corona virus. Here's the link to the original article:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
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