Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Interesting projections on the potential spread of the virus here: https://www.worldpop.org/events/china
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Section 1 deals with internal travel in China.

Section2: International Travel
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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170 deaths reported on BBC news just now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51305526

The death toll of the coronavirus has risen to 170 and with a confirmed case in Tibet, the virus has now spread to every region in mainland China.

Chinese health authorities have said there were 7,711 confirmed cases in the country as of 29 January.
A Canadian Goose.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Travel data reveals top 20 cities at risk of Wuhan coronavirus spread
Download PDF Copy in full article: https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200 ... pread.aspx

Angela Betsaida B. Laguipo, BSNBy Angela Betsaida B. Laguipo, BSN, Jan 28 2020

The Wuhan coronavirus or 2019-N-CoV has spread across the globe, including Australia, United States, Cambodia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Now, Academics at the University of Southampton released a new report on the 20 cities at the highest risk of the novel coronavirus spread. They used travel data to determine which cities are more likely to see cases in the future.
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Geographic distribution of cities across the globe receiving airline travellers from 18 high-risk cities (Figure 6) in mainland China over a period of three months, representing 15 days before Lunar New Year’s Day and 2 and half months following Lunar New Year’s Day. The volume of airline travellers of the top 30 ranked cities is presented.

Geographic distribution of cities across the globe receiving airline travellers from 18 high-risk cities (Figure 6) in mainland China over a period of three months, representing 15 days before Lunar New Year’s Day and 2 and half months following Lunar New Year’s Day. The volume of airline travellers of the top 30 ranked cities is presented.

Bangkok, Thailand tops the list, making it at the greatest threat of the potentially fatal infection, spreading from China. Meanwhile, cities like Hong Kong, Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, and Singapore came in next. Included in the world risk map list are Phuket, Osaka, Kuala Lumpur, Macau, Denpasar Bali, Sydney, Chiang Mai, Melbourne, Los Angeles, New York, Dubai, Niha Trang, London, and Ho Chi Minh City.

Though millions of people have been contained to mitigate the spread of the deadly virus, Chinese authorities report that at least five million people were projected to have left the province of Hubei, where Wuhan is located, for the Lunar New Year holidays before travel bans were imposed.


The countries at the highest risk due to travel of Chinese residents include Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, and Malaysia. Other countries include Singapore, Vietnam, Australia, Indonesia, Cambodian, Macao, China, Philippines, Germany, Canada, United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, Italy, and Russia.

The new world risk map report comes as foreigners and tourists trapped in Wuhan are waiting to be rescued. Residents and tourists stranded in the city are asking for help, with food and water supply running out and communication methods revolve only around SMS and social media platforms.

Source:
Preliminary risk analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus spread within and beyond China https://www.worldpop.org/resources/docs ... -25Jan.pdf
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
Give it a couple of weeks. The infections in China might have peaked by then. Alternatively, they could keep climbing and substantial infections across this whole region will start to get reported, in which case we will be off to the races.

Personally I am leaning towards this whole thing burning itself out by the end of February, but I am thinking about plan B if the numbers just keep growing...
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Doc67 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:05 pm
Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
Give it a couple of weeks. The infections in China might have peaked by then. Alternatively, they could keep climbing and substantial infections across this whole region will start to get reported, in which case we will be off to the races.

Personally I am leaning towards this whole thing burning itself out by the end of February, but I am thinking about plan B if the numbers just keep growing...
they say 10 days it should have peaked, already more infected than sars, but so far less than 1/5th the deaths
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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phuketrichard wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Doc67 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:05 pm
Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
Give it a couple of weeks. The infections in China might have peaked by then. Alternatively, they could keep climbing and substantial infections across this whole region will start to get reported, in which case we will be off to the races.

Personally I am leaning towards this whole thing burning itself out by the end of February, but I am thinking about plan B if the numbers just keep growing...
they say 10 days it should have peaked, already more infected than sars, but so far less than 1/5th the deaths
This was a very useful resource, thanks for this
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

I look at this and am waiting for it to flatline. No sign of that happening yet...

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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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phuketrichard wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Doc67 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:05 pm
Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
Give it a couple of weeks. The infections in China might have peaked by then. Alternatively, they could keep climbing and substantial infections across this whole region will start to get reported, in which case we will be off to the races.

Personally I am leaning towards this whole thing burning itself out by the end of February, but I am thinking about plan B if the numbers just keep growing...
they say 10 days it should have peaked, already more infected than sars, but so far less than 1/5th the deaths
CORONAVIRUSCoronavirus v SARS, a quick comparisonThe ThaigerPublished2 days ago onJanuary 28, 2020ByThe Thaiger
Coronavirus v SARS, a quick comparison | The ThaigerPHOTO: The new virus is spreading faster but appears much less deadly than SARS - Los Angeles Timesfollow us in feedly
SARS, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, was a viral respiratory disease caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Between November 2002 and July 2003, the eight month outbreak in southern China infected a total of 8,098 people, resulting in 774 deaths in 17 countries. Two years ago Chinese scientists traced SARS’ origins through the intermediary of civets (cat-like small mammals) to cave-dwelling horseshoe bats in the Yunnan province in southern China, bordering Myanmar.

The majority of cases were in mainland China and Hong Kong and had a 9.6% fatality rate, according to the World Health Organisation. No cases of SARS have been reported anywhere in the world since 2004.



As of 2017, there was no cure or protective vaccine developed for SARS that has been shown to be either safe or effective in humans. The identification and development of vaccines and medicines to treat SARS patients remains a priority for governments and public health agencies around the world.

Comparing the novel coronavirus to the SARS outbreak, at the current rate of around 1,000 new cases a day, the coronavirus should have infected half of the number of the 8,096 people stricken with the SARS virus, by the middle of this week. SARS took around 8 months to reach that level of cases.

Scientists studying the new coronavirus say the infectiousness of the virus is not as strong as SARS, but have added that people are being infected at a faster rate.

David Heymann, the chairman of a World Health Organisation committee gathering data on the outbreak, says the virus appears to spread more easily from person to person than previously thought. The death rate of the latest coronavirus outbreak is far smaller than that seen during the SARS outbreak.

Like the SARS virus, the Wuhan coronavirus is also being traced to animals, including bats, believed to have been consumed by Wuhan locals from a popular fresh meat market.


SARS took 8 months to infect 8,096 people, Carona took about a month. SARS had a mortality rate of 9.6% while at present Caronavirus has a 2.8% mortality rate. SARS infected people in 29 countries over an 8 month period, Caronavirus has hit 20 in a month. Germany, Vietnam and Japan all have confirmed coronavirus victims that caught the virus in their home country. With Caronavirus's infection rate there is no doubt it will kill far more than SARS and tax the medical system in more countries.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
I had nonrefundable airfare booked with layover in Xiamen China and onward to usa. Xiamen airlines agreed to cancel ticket due to virus scare ( really be looking bad China airline refund nonrefundable ticket ) I booked through Ota expedia. If you wanna visit cambodia Feb consider book airline ticket with liberal cancelation policy in case it gets bad in cambodia . Look for airfare that doesn't transfer layover anywhere in china cuz all Chinese airports available might be clusterfook worse than usual You could book Seoul direct phnom penh. Singapore, tapei, ect
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

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Is there any truth in the claim that Cambodia can relax because the virus 'çan't survive high temperatures'? Paraphrased minister of Health. Always thought viruses loved heat and sticky weather.
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Re: Outbreak of Unidentified Coronavirus In China as New Year Approaches

Post by Soriya »

phuketrichard wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:40 pm
Doc67 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 1:05 pm
Kinetic wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2020 11:00 pm Would it be a bad idea to plan a travel in Cambodia for end february? Seriously.
already more infected than sars
As of today that is not true
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