Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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phuketrichard
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by phuketrichard »

CEOCambodiaNews wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:31 pm
God'sGift wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:27 pm the only thing that matters is the death rate and the age of those who succumb

if you're just ill, then deal with it
Virus Survivors Could Suffer Severe Health Effects for Years
By Lisa Du
13 May 2020, 04:00 GMT+7
Research shows long-term health issues can stem from virus
Boris Johnson’s physician calls it ‘this generation’s polio’


More than one million people around the world have been deemed recovered from the coronavirus, but beating the initial sickness may be just the first of many battles for those who have survived.

Some recovered patients report breathlessness, fatigue and body pain months after first becoming infected. Small-scale studies conducted in Hong Kong and Wuhan, China show that survivors grapple with poorer functioning in their lungs, heart and liver. And that may be the tip of the iceberg.

The coronavirus is now known to attack many parts of the body beyond the respiratory system, causing damage from the eyeballs to the toes, the gut to the kidneys. Patients’ immune systems can go into overdrive to fight off the infection, compounding the damage done.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... us-is-gone
my daughter tested positive over almost 5 weeks ago, ( first symptoms 5 weeks +1 day)
Healthy and young

Still shortness of breathe, no taste or smell, fatigue and body pain, good days and bad days
before she can return to work needs be cleared by a doctor.

effects are not over in a short while.

so in america you have over 3 million feeling shitty and 30 million+ on unemployment

although 130, 000+ deaths is a terrible figure, its not the worst thing from covid
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
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clutchcargo
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by clutchcargo »

^^^^^

Very good point phuketrichard. There's obviously the key metric of deaths and then you hear of people having few symptoms or mildly affected. But yeah, there's a whole other group that have sustained health issues..dunno how many but I assume not a minor stat.
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yongchi
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by yongchi »

Here is how we could perhaps get back to school fast and get the economy going:

In Medcram Update 98 a cheap covid paper test using saliva is being discussed.


It can be produced cheaply (1 to 2 bucks) and everyone can see their result in 10 minutes.

It seems that this test has been available since very early on in the pandemic but was deemed not sensitive enough.
The test needs a higher viral load to turn positive.

Recent research (also discussed in the video) seems to suggest that a person is only likely to infect others if they have above a certain threshold viral load.

And here is why this test could be a game changer:
These docs think the cheap test may be sensitive enough to predict whether someone is infective.

If what they suggest holds, everyone could test themselves in the morning before school, work, going shopping etc.
If positive->No go
Negative->Go to school, work etc.

And even if the test is late by a day, it could still be a lot more actionable than a several days old gold standard test.

One of the docs: "You'll drive R down quickly."

I sincerely hope this is being properly investigated.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by newkidontheblock »

The problem is that it’s a single point test requiring a much higher viral load.

Let’s assume it’s set to trigger at the viral load level the person turns infectious. So a person with the virus could not trigger the test one day, and then the next day reach infectious threshold. And maybe dip below the day after that.

So does that mean everyone would be tested everyday?

Every kid gets tested, then sent to a group holding area to wait for results before being allowed in school?

And how about the parents? They can plan for 14 days of quarantine for their kid. But not a daily possibility of quarantine. Or not.
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yongchi
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by yongchi »

newkidontheblock wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:53 pm Let’s assume it’s set to trigger at the viral load level the person turns infectious. So a person with the virus could not trigger the test one day, and then the next day reach infectious threshold. And maybe dip below the day after that.
If the increase in viral load is typically exponential, the dip is unlikely to happen.
(Increase happens in a matter of hours. As per the video.)

It is not about being perfect but good enough to drive down R so we get a hold of the pandemic.

They admit they may be late by a day.
At present, how many people are running around not knowing they are spreading the virus? And for how long? Days?

You could test yourself (your kid) at home and see the result yourself if I understand this correctly.
Why not daily if it is cheap?

I am not saying schools should be opened now. This is beyond my pay grade.

Try to look at the opportunities. How could this instrument help?
monomial
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by monomial »

newkidontheblock wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:53 pm So does that mean everyone would be tested everyday?
Honestly? Yes. This is exactly what it means. In fact, this is the only way that the process can really work. Even at the beginning of the pandemic, before everyone went crazy with lockdowns, it was quite clear by SIR models that the only way test and isolation could have an appreciable effect was to identify an infection within 24 hours, isolate the individual, and then initiate contact tracing.

I don't believe it was ever morally acceptable to close the borders and lockdown the entire population, most of whom were perfectly healthy, simply because the above was impractical. Doesn't matter what the death rate or R factor was. I would never agree that the action taken by governments was OK. But you have identified exactly what needs to occur for testing to work the way the models require if your goal is to eliminate the virus without herd immunity. It must be a simple, near instant test much like a thermometer, that can give a result quickly and be cheap enough to be performed even several times per day on an individual.

There are ways of lowering the costs for groups. The testing cost can be reduced in theory to as low as log(N) if you combine samples and test group by group, only going to an individual level if the group tests positive. But speed and simplicty are still absolutely critical here.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by clutchcargo »

clutchcargo wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:37 pm ^^^^^

Very good point phuketrichard. There's obviously the key metric of deaths and then you hear of people having few symptoms or mildly affected. But yeah, there's a whole other group that have sustained health issues..dunno how many but I assume not a minor stat.
More on this:

Nearly 20% of young, healthy coronavirus patients hadn't recovered after 2 to 3 weeks, the CDC found — showing infection can cause 'prolonged illness'

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/youn ... cdc-2020-7
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by CEOCambodiaNews »

USA
COVID mask exemption cards are not from the government
June 29, 2020
by Colleen Tressler
Consumer Education Specialist, FTC

To help limit the spread of the Coronavirus, many states are requiring people to wear face coverings in places open to the public. But there are cards circulating online and on social media that say the holder has a disability that prevents them from wearing a mask, and that it’s illegal for any business to ask them to disclose their condition. Variations of the card include the seal of the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), one of the federal agencies responsible for enforcing the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA).
Image
The fact is, these cards aren’t issued or endorsed by DOJ, or any other federal agency. DOJ urges the public not to rely on the information contained in these postings, and to visit ADA.gov for ADA information issued by the agency.
https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/blog/2020/ ... government
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yongchi
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by yongchi »

monomial wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:31 am It must be a simple, near instant test much like a thermometer, that can give a result quickly and be cheap enough to be performed even several times per day on an individual
That’s exactly what I was thinking watching that video.
The thermometer was pretty good for SARS-1.
This paper test could potentially be the thermometer for Covid-19.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by God'sGift »

hunter8 wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:49 pm
Rtrac wrote: Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:16 am This virus is novel ...
The much more novelty is the levels of hypocrisy of governments who shut down livelihoods of infinite families, especially in third world countries, supposedly caring for their safety, throwing them into years of suffering from incurred debts, diseases of malnutrition, skyrocketing crime and no future.
Sure , things are getting bad in US and UK now - just wait till the furlough ends and the US election countdown

the UK sure will be fucked when there's no jobs, accommodation or rent money etc.
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