Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Foreigner » Fri May 08, 2020 3:36 am

CEOCambodiaNews wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 4:00 pm
fazur wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 3:32 pm
Clemen wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 2:59 pm
Yes? So, that's it then? No one else will die?
You can't compare a complete data set i.e. "Flu deaths in 1960" to an incomplete set, an ongoing epidemic. The rate today may not be the rate next month.
i got tired of trying to explain this to people

it's not over till the fat wuhan lady sings the last note
As posters here have pointed out, the pandemic is far from over. Figures continue to rise globally, including in Sweden. The situation is fluctuating as the virus moves on.
Image
Image
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Unthinkable a month ago, the USA now takes the global lead in coronavirus cases, with a third of the total infections recorded, and more cases expected as testing becomes more widespread. Russia is a new virus hotspot.
Image
But if you look further down that page, you'll see that deaths in Sweden have peaked and are on the way down (unlike many other countries).
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Foreigner » Fri May 08, 2020 3:40 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Thu May 07, 2020 6:01 pm
Breaking

The head of Sweden’s coronavirus response said in a new interview that the country’s high death toll had “come as a surprise” and was “really something we worry a lot about.”
The state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told “The Daily Show” that the Swedish strategy had still been successful in many ways.
But he said the no-lockdown strategy was not a conscious decision in favour of more deaths – instead he said the outsize toll was not part of the plan.

Well, the plan seems to be falling apart badly. their death curve is rising rapidly and shows no indication of flattening - unlike nearly everywhere else.

A very valid comparison,
2 months ago very similar starting points.
Similar societies, similar abilities to introduce response.
Australia, pop 25 mill.
deaths 97
flattening curve
Sweden, pop 10 mill
deaths 2,947
steadily rising curve

"There are too many people dying," says Claudia Hanson, an epidemiologist based at Karolinska Institutet, Sweden's largest medical research facility. She is critical of the government's approach and argues more of society should have been temporarily shut down in March while officials took stock of the situation.

Dr Hanson is among 22 scientists who wrote a damning piece in Sweden's leading daily last week, suggesting "officials without talent" had been put in charge of decision-making.
haha. I just posted the exact opposite to this before seeing your post !!

Actually dude, Sweden's deaths have peaked and are on the way down. Many western European curves are also on the way down (and further down than Sweden), but there's a lot of countries which have lock down which are still on the way up.

I've done a lot of analysis on the worldometer data in the last few days and it's an absolute mindfuck and I have up in the end. The 'cases' data is obviously bollocks anyway.

A few random curious things I found:

- there's no consistency at all in the periods between peak cases and peak deaths. Belgium's peak deaths occurred 6 days BEFORE their peak cases (1 of 7 countries that way round). South Korea had a 23 day lag the other way.

- there's no correlation between late lock down (compared to 1st case date) and the worst hit countries in western Europe. The country which entered into lock down latest compared to its 1st case was Germany, which has one of the best COVID records in w.Europe.

- Sweden (which famously hasn't gone into lock down) has past peak cases and peak deaths.

- Italy was the 2nd FASTEST country to reach peak deaths and cases (but had a long peak)

- Belgium (the worst affected country by death per capita) was one of the quickest countries to go from peak deaths to half peak deaths.

- The 2 quickest countries to 500 cases per day were Qatar and Singapore

- Only 8 out of 23 non w.Eur countries reviewed have reached peak deaths

- Switzerland killed it

- There's something funny about Ireland's figures
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Fri May 08, 2020 3:58 am

Foreigner wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:40 am

haha. I just posted the exact opposite to this before seeing your post !!

Actually dude, Sweden's deaths have peaked and are on the way down.

- Sweden (which famously hasn't gone into lock down) has past peak cases and peak deaths.
Image
Ummmm
LOL
Sorry Foreigner, the batteries in my hearing aid are flat - could you repeat that statement again, please?
:mrgreen:
Besides, why would choose thousands of deaths when you could have had only 40? (equiv Oz by population)
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Foreigner » Fri May 08, 2020 4:01 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:58 am
Foreigner wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:40 am

haha. I just posted the exact opposite to this before seeing your post !!

Actually dude, Sweden's deaths have peaked and are on the way down.

- Sweden (which famously hasn't gone into lock down) has past peak cases and peak deaths.
Image
Ummmm
LOL
Sorry Foreigner, the batteries in my hearing aid are flat - could you repeat that statement again, please?
:mrgreen:
Besides, why would choose thousands of deaths when you could have had only 40? (equiv Oz by population)
Mate, all the composite curves look like that though !

If you scroll further down you'll see the daily deaths curve on the way down.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Electric Earth » Fri May 08, 2020 4:26 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 3:58 am
Besides, why would choose thousands of deaths when you could have had only 40? (equiv Oz by population)
Money. Keeping in mind that all of these deaths around the world are With extreme measures in place - a major factor that the money focused like to pretend isn't a factor. Imagine if we did nothing and let it "run it's course" as they suggest...
Do you think the parents of baby boomers whined so much when the boomers started changing society? And yet the whiney ones like to call young people "snowflakes." Hmm...
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Fri May 08, 2020 4:40 am

Ok Foreigner, point taken, Sweden does seem to be just past it's peak.
Only 87 deaths now - 10% less that Australia's total - per day.

I see all these posts (not necessarily yours) singing the praises of Sweden when in fact it is turning into a catastrophe.
All those ekonomy boosters, and those who are desperate to fly at any cost to the aged, totally ignore the "inconvenient" OZ and NZ success story - simply because it shows how totally unnecessary is the horrific death toll everywhere else in the 1st world.

- "Sweden nears 'horrifying' death toll of 3,000 from coronavirus with 87 new fatalities, including a child under ten
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell called it 'a horrifyingly large number'Sweden admits a 'big failure' to prevent elderly deaths"

- Sweden forced to admit significant under-counting of coronavirus deaths. 30 April 2020
Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare released figures Tuesday revealing that the death toll from the coronavirus has been significantly underestimated in public figures.

- 22 top scientists slam the governments approach
- Sweden deaths much higher than neighbouring nations. eg 5x that of Norway pp/pop
- Death rate worse than USA
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Foreigner » Fri May 08, 2020 5:38 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 4:40 am
Ok Foreigner, point taken, Sweden does seem to be just past it's peak.
Only 87 deaths now - 10% less that Australia's total - per day.

I see all these posts (not necessarily yours) singing the praises of Sweden when in fact it is turning into a catastrophe.
All those ekonomy boosters, and those who are desperate to fly at any cost to the aged, totally ignore the "inconvenient" OZ and NZ success story - simply because it shows how totally unnecessary is the horrific death toll everywhere else in the 1st world.

- "Sweden nears 'horrifying' death toll of 3,000 from coronavirus with 87 new fatalities, including a child under ten
State epidemiologist Anders Tegnell called it 'a horrifyingly large number'Sweden admits a 'big failure' to prevent elderly deaths"

- Sweden forced to admit significant under-counting of coronavirus deaths. 30 April 2020
Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare released figures Tuesday revealing that the death toll from the coronavirus has been significantly underestimated in public figures.

- 22 top scientists slam the governments approach
- Sweden deaths much higher than neighbouring nations. eg 5x that of Norway pp/pop
- Death rate worse than USA
Albs, I don't see as OZ and NZ success story as inconvenient (I have no predetermined narrative, just calling things as I see them), but let's not forget that there's many other parts of the world that have not done too badly from this. Is this just due to NZ and OZ's brilliant handling of the crisis ? I'm not sure. What have they done exactly ? What have the US and European nations done so badly exactly ? There are clearly some important variables here we just don't understand yet.

I've looked at lockdowns (objectively), and I can tell you man, there's no correlation between timing of lockdown and impact of the virus. That's what the numbers are saying.

As for Sweden, there whole policy is based on letting the virus do its thing naturally. We don't know how that works out until much further down the line. Will NZ and OZ be cut off from the rest of the world for 5 years petrified of the virus getting in ? Will excess deaths over 12 months even out in scandanavia but with Sweden not having gone through a recession ? Who knows. I for one am surprised that Sweden's death rate is coming down already, and I think most people will be, but the fact is that it is (although I note your comments about under-reporting above, however that's likely to be an issue in many places).

I'll tell you what theory I do have on this, and that's I think it MAY (not nailing my colours to the mast on this) be the best policy (abscent a vaccine) to let the virus run its course during its least potent periods, eg possibly summer months in Europe. The case counts in most countries are bullshit I think. I reckon it's gone through everywhere, just most places it doesn't do much. We need to work out why and when, and consider letting it loose during those periods, similar to what Sweden have done, but maybe on a bigger scale !
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Fri May 08, 2020 6:06 am

Fair enough, foreigner, but i think it is a reckless gamble.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons » Fri May 08, 2020 6:42 am

This pretty much sums up Australia's view (and NZ) -

The concept of herd immunity appals the Prime Minister. He's got no time for a ready reckoner that pitches lives against the economy.
"That's a death sentence, and that's not something that Australia has ever contemplated," said Scott Morrison

"Nobody's got herd immunity. I mean the United States (1.2 million infections, more than 73,000 deaths) hasn't reached it, Sweden hasn't reached it, the UK hasn't reached it.

"You've got to get to about 60 per cent, two-thirds of your population. And even with all the death and devastation we've seen and all of those countries, they went nowhere near herd immunity and no one's going to reach that."

Behind the scenes, the PM's been even more strident in his rejection of the Swedish model.
That's not to say he and his Treasurer aren't acutely aware of the enormous economic cost of the Government-ordered shutdown. (they are both hard line conservatives usually pushing the BigBiz agenda)

"Some observers claim the Swedish model of handling the virus with significantly fewer restrictions is the model of success," Frydenberg said. (the Treasurer)
"Respectfully, I disagree. Sweden has 40 per cent of Australia's population but 70 times the death rate. The numbers speak for themselves."

There is huge imperative to lift restrictions, but not without a structure that allows industrial-scale testing, contact tracing and isolation.

Australia bought itself time by acting quickly, unlike many of the Europeans and the Americans. The smart and humane thing to do is to use that advantage to carefully and cautiously draw down the economic restrictions while protecting lives — and yes, even the grannies and grandpas.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Foreigner » Fri May 08, 2020 7:09 am

SternAAlbifrons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 6:42 am
This pretty much sums up Australia's view (and NZ) -

The concept of herd immunity appals the Prime Minister. He's got no time for a ready reckoner that pitches lives against the economy.
"That's a death sentence, and that's not something that Australia has ever contemplated," said Scott Morrison

"Nobody's got herd immunity. I mean the United States (1.2 million infections, more than 73,000 deaths) hasn't reached it, Sweden hasn't reached it, the UK hasn't reached it.

"You've got to get to about 60 per cent, two-thirds of your population. And even with all the death and devastation we've seen and all of those countries, they went nowhere near herd immunity and no one's going to reach that."

Behind the scenes, the PM's been even more strident in his rejection of the Swedish model.
That's not to say he and his Treasurer aren't acutely aware of the enormous economic cost of the Government-ordered shutdown. (they are both hard line conservatives usually pushing the BigBiz agenda)

"Some observers claim the Swedish model of handling the virus with significantly fewer restrictions is the model of success," Frydenberg said. (the Treasurer)
"Respectfully, I disagree. Sweden has 40 per cent of Australia's population but 70 times the death rate. The numbers speak for themselves."

There is huge imperative to lift restrictions, but not without a structure that allows industrial-scale testing, contact tracing and isolation.

Australia bought itself time by acting quickly, unlike many of the Europeans and the Americans. The smart and humane thing to do is to use that advantage to carefully and cautiously draw down the economic restrictions while protecting lives — and yes, even the grannies and grandpas.
Belgium locked down when they were at 1 death per day. They have a death per capita rate of 700+ per million.

Germany locked down when they were at 19 deaths per day. They have a death per capita rate of less than 100 per million.

Sweden have never locked down. They have a death per capita rate of less than 300 per million.

Also, the death rate is per capita, so the population size is irrelevant. ; )
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