Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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rexwell
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by rexwell »

Have we been punked?

The USA is getting less deaths per 100000 with Covid than they were before the early 2000's with the flu and 1960 was a real doozy.

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Clemen
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Clemen »

rexwell wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:51 pm Have we been punked?

No, incomplete data and invalid comparisons. If I made a graph showing deaths in the US due to Coronavirus as of January it might show zero. The number is a bit above that now. That shows the current death rate, that isn't necessarily the final death rate. In Spain for instance it's much higher, there could be many reasons for this, one I would argue is that they are past their peak.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by rexwell »

Clemen wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 2:24 pm
rexwell wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 1:51 pm Have we been punked?

No, incomplete data and invalid comparisons. If I made a graph showing deaths in the US due to Coronavirus as of January it might show zero. The number is a bit above that now. That shows the current death rate, that isn't necessarily the final death rate. In Spain for instance it's much higher, there could be many reasons for this, one I would argue is that they are past their peak.
The data is 3 days old.
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Clemen
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Clemen »

Yes? So, that's it then? No one else will die?
You can't compare a complete data set i.e. "Flu deaths in 1960" to an incomplete set, an ongoing epidemic. The rate today may not be the rate next month.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by rexwell »

That's the truth. We don't have all the data yet, but we will and it will make for interesting reading and a return to the guillotine.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by Clemen »

rexwell wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:07 pm That's the truth. We don't have all the data yet, but we will and it will make for interesting reading and a return to the guillotine.
That may very well be.
The bright side to the epidemic is that grad students in pretty much every discipline from economics to sociology to climate science will always have a thesis topic.
"Bondage fetishes increase in times of Coronavirus"
"Depression in macadamia nut output due to decreased atmospheric co2 levels during pandemic"
"Correlation = causation, American politics during the pandemic"
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by rexwell »

Female sex toy sales have boomed. Pornhub was giving away free premium access. There are books to write. After the Black Death, victory over the curve parties broke out all over Europe. People were tripping on a fungus that grows on wheat (ergot?) Some people danced themselves to death. Hell of a way to go.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by fazur »

Clemen wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 2:59 pm Yes? So, that's it then? No one else will die?
You can't compare a complete data set i.e. "Flu deaths in 1960" to an incomplete set, an ongoing epidemic. The rate today may not be the rate next month.
i got tired of trying to explain this to people

it's not over till the fat wuhan lady sings the last note
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by CEOCambodiaNews »

fazur wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 3:32 pm
Clemen wrote: Thu May 07, 2020 2:59 pm Yes? So, that's it then? No one else will die?
You can't compare a complete data set i.e. "Flu deaths in 1960" to an incomplete set, an ongoing epidemic. The rate today may not be the rate next month.
i got tired of trying to explain this to people

it's not over till the fat wuhan lady sings the last note
As posters here have pointed out, the pandemic is far from over. Figures continue to rise globally, including in Sweden. The situation is fluctuating as the virus moves on.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/sweden/

Unthinkable a month ago, the USA now takes the global lead in coronavirus cases, with a third of the total infections recorded, and more cases expected as testing becomes more widespread. Russia is a new virus hotspot.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

Breaking

The head of Sweden’s coronavirus response said in a new interview that the country’s high death toll had “come as a surprise” and was “really something we worry a lot about.”
The state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell told “The Daily Show” that the Swedish strategy had still been successful in many ways.
But he said the no-lockdown strategy was not a conscious decision in favour of more deaths – instead he said the outsize toll was not part of the plan.

Well, the plan seems to be falling apart badly. their death curve is rising rapidly and shows no indication of flattening - unlike nearly everywhere else.

A very valid comparison,
2 months ago very similar starting points.
Similar societies, similar abilities to introduce response.
Australia, pop 25 mill.
deaths 97
flattening curve
Sweden, pop 10 mill
deaths 2,947
steadily rising curve

"There are too many people dying," says Claudia Hanson, an epidemiologist based at Karolinska Institutet, Sweden's largest medical research facility. She is critical of the government's approach and argues more of society should have been temporarily shut down in March while officials took stock of the situation.

Dr Hanson is among 22 scientists who wrote a damning piece in Sweden's leading daily last week, suggesting "officials without talent" had been put in charge of decision-making.
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