phuketrichard wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 pm thinking outloud:

This is a virus and as such,for most virus's a vaccine will be found, eventually,( they say 12-18 months)

It seems everybody is pretty sure a vaccination will be found, can be mass produced in the shortest time, and be totally save. The mean time to make a safe vaccine has been about 15 years so far. How they can cut that down to 10% while still providing at least a 99,9% safety (anything less and the cure is worse than the disease itself with an estimated mortality of 0,1-1%) is a miracle to me.

I don't share the optimism. There are loads of viruses which have no vaccine despite major efforts.

HIV
Dengue
Herpes
etc etc

If I were a policy maker I wouldn't bet on a (safe) vaccine. As a citizen, in my 40's, I'm not sure if I would take the vaccine. Actually I think I wouldn't because the risks of the vaccine might be higher than the risks of the disease itself.

IraHayes wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:45 am

Kammekor wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:35 am

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 pm thinking outloud:

This is a virus and as such,for most virus's a vaccine will be found, eventually,( they say 12-18 months)

It seems everybody is pretty sure a vaccination will be found, can be mass produced in the shortest time, and be totally save. The mean time to make a safe vaccine has been about 15 years so far. How they can cut that down to 10% while still providing at least a 99,9% safety (anything less and the cure is worse than the disease itself with an estimated mortality of 0,1-1%) is a miracle to me.

I don't share the optimism. There are loads of viruses which have no vaccine despite major efforts.

HIV
Dengue
Herpes
etc etc

If I were a policy maker I wouldn't bet on a (safe) vaccine. As a citizen, in my 40's, I'm not sure if I would take the vaccine. Actually I think I wouldn't because the risks of the vaccine might be higher than the risks of the disease itself.

Two points.

1. The Ebola vaccine was fast tracked and proved very effective.
2. There are already vaccines for other corona type viruses and so maybe creating a vaccine for this particular strain isn’t such a hurdle.

Ebola has a 25-90% fatality rate. COVID-19's fatality rate is estimated between 0,1-1%.

The low fatality rate for COVID-19 requires a very efficient and safe vaccine, otherwise the cure is worse than the disease. The vaccine developed for SARS-C0V back then was far from safe in the trials.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:35 am

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 pm thinking outloud:

This is a virus and as such,for most virus's a vaccine will be found, eventually,( they say 12-18 months)

It seems everybody is pretty sure a vaccination will be found, can be mass produced in the shortest time, and be totally save. The mean time to make a safe vaccine has been about 15 years so far. How they can cut that down to 10% while still providing at least a 99,9% safety (anything less and the cure is worse than the disease itself with an estimated mortality of 0,1-1%) is a miracle to me.

I don't share the optimism. There are loads of viruses which have no vaccine despite major efforts.

HIV
Dengue
Herpes
etc etc

If I were a policy maker I wouldn't bet on a (safe) vaccine. As a citizen, in my 40's, I'm not sure if I would take the vaccine. Actually I think I wouldn't because the risks of the vaccine might be higher than the risks of the disease itself.

Vaccine developers are using new techniques involving the virus' DNA and RNA. There is a very good long read in the Guardian about what is happening in this area and is well worth your time. Here's a taste and the link.

'It’s a razor’s edge we’re walking': inside the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine

"The coronavirus arrived at a ripe moment in genetic technology, when the advances of the past half-decade have made it possible for vaccine projects to explode off the blocks as soon as a virus is sequenced. These cutting-edge vaccines don’t use weakened forms of the germ to build our immunity, as all vaccines once did; rather, they contain short copies of parts of the germ’s genetic code – its DNA or RNA – which can produce fragments of the germ within our bodies."

"Thus, for the first time ever, scientists have been able to muster up vaccine prospects mere weeks into a new, fast-spreading disease. Right now, there are at least 43 Covid-19 vaccines in development around the world – in Brisbane and Hong Kong, in the US and the UK, in the labs of universities and companies. Most of these are DNA or RNA vaccines. One vaccine, made in 63 days by an American biotech firm named Moderna, moved into human trials on 16 March, entering the bloodstream of the first of 45 healthy adult volunteers in Seattle. It was a “world indoor record”, said Anthony Fauci, the doctor who heads the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “Nothing has ever gone that fast.”

"Until this century, crafting a vaccine for even a long-familiar pathogen such as the polio virus, ushering it through trials and bringing it to market could take as long as 10 or 20 years. The first of these three stages is now staggeringly quick; a scientist at one company, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, told New Scientist magazine that her team had a preliminary model for a Covid-19 vaccine after just three hours of work."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... e-covid-19

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:28 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 8:35 am

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:05 pm thinking outloud:

This is a virus and as such,for most virus's a vaccine will be found, eventually,( they say 12-18 months)

It seems everybody is pretty sure a vaccination will be found, can be mass produced in the shortest time, and be totally save. The mean time to make a safe vaccine has been about 15 years so far. How they can cut that down to 10% while still providing at least a 99,9% safety (anything less and the cure is worse than the disease itself with an estimated mortality of 0,1-1%) is a miracle to me.

I don't share the optimism. There are loads of viruses which have no vaccine despite major efforts.

HIV
Dengue
Herpes
etc etc

If I were a policy maker I wouldn't bet on a (safe) vaccine. As a citizen, in my 40's, I'm not sure if I would take the vaccine. Actually I think I wouldn't because the risks of the vaccine might be higher than the risks of the disease itself.

well what would you do if, they required you had the vaccine to be able to travel?
Back in the 60's, 70's, you had to be vaccinated against yellow fever an had to carry ur "yellow card" vaccination booklet all across north Africa and the middle east and even now some countries still require it, without it many countries would not allow you to enter..

I still figure the vaccination will be ready for travelers within 2 years
otherwise the travel industry will be a thing of the past

Never heard anyone catching dengue, herpes or hiv by droplets or just being near someone..

I probably wouldn't travel for a few months and look how it panned out. In my age group the death rate is about ,5%, maybe less. The Sars-Cov vaccine developed for SARS had severe complications for way more than ,5% of the people vaccinated. I am no anti-vaxxer, but in the current crisis a lot of corners have been cut so far, and more corners will be cut. People seem so freaked out the stop thinking.

Just read an article in my country about 50% of the people on a ventilator don't make it, and research shows 70% of people who've been on a ventilator for more than 6 days and survive still suffer from an ICU syndrome one year later. And we close entire economies not to overwhelm those ICU units where at least 50% dies anyway and those who survive don't come out too well in general.

I also read about research in a German town Gangel where 14% of the people had antibodies in their blood, and 2% had an active infection, so 16% has had the disease already. Maybe it's better to just let the virus run its' course and shut down the vulnerable for 3 months instead of delaying this for entire populations until a vaccine (maybe) becomes available?

29m ago 9:36
US: 2,108 Dead from Coronavirus in 24 Hours

The US has become the first country in the world to record more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths in a single day.

Figures from Johns Hopkins University show 2,108 people died in the past 24 hours with more than half a million confirmed infections.

America could soon surpass Italy as the country with the most coronavirus deaths worldwide.

It comes as White House experts said the spread of the virus as starting to level off.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/ ... rbs-who-on

So, some members are tempted to serve The Economy first.
Make up your own mind - BUT that means paying the price with the deaths of tens/hundreds of thousands of our vulnerable.

Sure, 50% of those on ventilators don't make it.
THAT is why we we don't want the spread to be so great that so many need to go on ventilators.
THAT is why the countries that jump hard and jump quick - and who's population all jump on board - are not killing their vulnerable anywhere near as much as those that don't.
THAT is the decision of those countries - citizens, biz and gov - because they value everybody's life above The Economy.

eg,
Australia - not in total lockdown - but early, extremely sensible and still very strict restrictions
58 dead. (USA pop equiv would be approx - 850 dead)
USA, where the leader appears to value The Economy more than most, and who certainly has not implemented effective control measures.
18, 500 dead
...already.

(Not meaning to bash USA, i wish it was Uranus or Pluto i could point to instead.
but this is the starkest contrast of comparable countries i could find right now - it would be disingenuous not to mention it in any discussion about The Economy V. the value of life saving restrictions)

Kiwi Coronavirus Figures

Where the known coronavirus cases are in New Zealand

Total confirmed and probable infections by District Health Board 11/04/20
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health ... -the-virus

siliconlife wrote: ↑Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:55 amWhile China is no stranger to xenophobia and racism, the COVID-19 pandemic has taken hostility toward foreigners to an alarming new level. Driven by a string of news stories that put foreigners in a negative light for their irresponsible behavior during the outbreak, Chinese social media has been flooded with hateful and sometimes violent comments targeting the expatriate community.

So they either create a lab virus which runs through their country killing a Lot of people(I'm sure at Least double what they say. Maybe even half million+?), or basically release this virus upon the world through their moral-less, fucked up endangered animal markets. The virus then goes on to kill who-knows how many people around the world. Now they're being hostile and violent toward foreigners for creating a covid problem. What the fuck?