Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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404FreedomNotFound
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:49 pm Dead bodies left in Ecuador streets in city overwhelmed by COVID-19 pandemic
The coronavirus pandemic is overloading the city's public services to a point of collapse. Hospitals have no beds left to accept sick patients, and morgues, cemeteries and funeral homes are straining. With no place left to put them, some residents say they have no choice but placing them outside.
Jorge Wated, head of a joint military task force created to deal with Ecuador's coronavirus crisis, in a televised interview on Wednesday said that his task force had gone from "taking away 30 deceased per day to 150" over the past three days. Wated added that this was "independent of the hard work reactivated by the private funeral homes and graveyards in the country
https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavi ... 473945a2fc
This is not a response directed at Hillbilly, simply a comment of the article. Thank you Hillbilly for sharing new information from across the world.

I don't know much about Ecuador, but I spent the last 10 mins getting a couple infos on Ecuador I hope I didn't make a mistake or forgotten a massive factor due to the very short amount of time I spent on it.

Overall death count per day in previous years : https://www.indexmundi.com/ecuador/death_rate.html (including traffic accident etc....)
232

Overall acute respiratory infections death a day in previous years : https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5929540/10 (including all types of respiratory infection, viral, bacterial etc...)
10

The population in Ecuador median age is 28
https://www.worldometers.info/world-pop ... opulation/

Following the narrative of 9news outlet :
Current Overall death in some of the regions affected by covid-19 boosted the number of dead bodies from 30 to 150 a day.

Extrapolating their narratives, One would believe the arrival of covid-19 in Ecuador in the region most impacted for the past week :
- Increased the mortality rate of the overall population by 500%.
- Caused the overall death from all respiratory disease to jump by 9200%.
- That covid-19 killed more than all other causes of death by a factor of 400%.
This narratives leads to conclusion completely inconsistent with everything we know of the virus, every single expert and expert studies, every other country report and assessment of the situation by a huge scale.

I believe everything that is said in that news, but would argue that what is causing all of this trouble is the useless fear-mongering and the horrible attempted cures to the problem and the narratives from news outlet like 9news which help spread deceiving narratives. The fear-mongering and economy issues is already killing a lot of people if we really went from 30 to 150 death a day as claimed in this article. This article is most likely factually accurate, but clearly encouraging a dangerous and irresponsible fear-mongering narrative, which does not add up by attributing all those death to the pandemic rather than attributing them to the cure and constant fear-mongering currently happening in Ecuador.

WHO official numbers for Ecuador : 3,465 cases / 100 Serious or critical cases / 172 Deaths.

I only took national averages across year, and didn't have the time to go into time frames and regions specifics. All numbers were also rounded. But the scale of the inconsistencies are just too big to be explained by that alone.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

This post ^^^ pretty much defines the problem with how you analyse the world FNF.
You say you know nothing about the situation in Equador
so you spend 10 minutes researching
crunch some numbers
and come up your usual answer to everything.

You present your methods a logic
- but a quick glance at the way you connect A>B>C>D info-bits is ludicrous in the first place because your A,B,C are usually not the most most relevant inputs, they are the ones you pick to make your case.
or can find in 10 minutes.

Then, your conclusion is arrived at without logic or scientific method applied even to that flawed input - you just say "we can surmise" or "from that i conclude", or some similar baseless way to reach the conclusion which perfectly matches you world view.
Psuedo analysis
a never-ending rant. (imo)

Which is a pity, because many of us do believe that our freedoms are being under-mined in modern times.
But like in the conservation world - ranters turn people away far far more than they convince.
404FreedomNotFound
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

@SternAAlbifrons
I believe I used the correct wording in order to dissociate what is my guess as to what is causing the extra death toll, and my much higher level on confidence that such an overall increase of the death toll is in complete contradiction with the expected effect of the virus on a region from the most dramatic health experts.
I do not always arrive to the same conclusion, when it comes to cambodia I'm saying people are dying from covid-19 despite 0 death reported.
SternAAlbifrons wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 2:58 am Which is a pity, because many of us do believe that our freedoms are being under-mined in modern times.
But like in the conservation world - ranters turn people away far far more than they convince.
I am more interested in the Why than the What.
I hold more respect for someone who arrived at a different conclusion using a better method, than for someone arriving at the same conclusion than me due to insufficient reasons, or withholding any clue as to the method that lead him to said conclusions.

I understand that I might be better off just calling out a fake news for what it is and restraining from hammering my own guesses everytime afterward though, and will do so from now on. Thank you for the helpful comment.
Last edited by 404FreedomNotFound on Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:58 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

In a region with mostly young individuals, You guys do agree that the coronavirus isn't capable by itself of increasing overall death-toll (including all types of death, traffic accident, etc...) by 500% according to all expert studies and other country stats even during the worst death peak right?
Am I the only one that feels like this article is telling me that the coronavirus increased the overall death toll in the region by 500%? Which sounds like fear-mongering?
There are many possible explanation possible, and mine about the cure and fear-mongering causing it is just my guess and has nothing to do with the math indeed.

10 mins calculs are nothing more than 10min calculs, and the specific region stats needs to be used and everything needs to be pondered by age and previous health condition
I just dont have the time to do that on every single article, every region, every country, but I do it in many instances.
And I always try to give my confidence level on each one of my conclusions, as I did here by specifying those are 10mins conclusions.

Still at first glance this article clearly appears to follow a fear-mongering narrative, and does not ponder shit either.

As for real science, Science says it's too early to know. Which is why we only have data and speculation to hold onto.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

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404FreedomNotFound wrote: Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:07 am I understand that I might be better off . . . . restraining from hammering my own guesses everytime afterward though, and will do so from now on.
That would be much appreciated, and save us from putting you on Mod Preview.

It would also be appreciated if you could cut back on the long-winded posts that add little to the interest of the members too. Thanks.
Who let all of this riff-raff into the room?

https://BooksAboutCambodia.com
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

PS ^^^ maybe i was a bit harsh in my language FNF, i do not want to denigrate you.
My comments are directed at your methodology, and the general way in which you keep going on and on and on trying to get your point across.
From someone who has strong views on a few things myself, may i suggest that to get your point across, and/or to change opinion, long winded raves are generally counter-productive.
This suggestion goes further than just shortening your posts, it includes the number of posts, and how you try to make your points on so many different topic threads.
Nobody takes a mono-maniac seriously. Surely you have wider interests than this??
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by ParadiSAeidae »

^^^ thank you AAlbi for your civility.
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by 404FreedomNotFound »

Point taken, I am bad at communication and have the worst methodology when it comes to communicating ideas on a forum. I agree : p
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by willyhilly »

Oh dear, such long winded rants on here. Go to twitter where one ranting is restricted and there are links galore to what is happening all over the world
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Re: Following the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak - News and Discussion

Post by CEOCambodiaNews »

Vulnerable Australian Returnees Imprisoned in Quarantine Hotels

Hotel quarantine a ‘disaster’ and vulnerable people should be allowed home, doctor says
Authorities told pregnant women and people with mental health issues should not be held in strict quarantine but advice was ignored
Melissa Davey
Sat 4 Apr 2020 18.30 BST
A Sydney doctor who has been treating returned travellers ordered into forced hotel isolation in New South Wales has described the situation as a “disaster” and said that people are in conditions “worse than prison”.

Dr Paul Finlay has been working at Sydney airport screening passengers with health checks, including pregnant women and people with dementia and severe mental health conditions. He said state and federal governments had not responded well to the crisis. “There’s no coordination between even departments at the same level of government. The interaction of state and federal government is hostile.”

Finlay said while it was true the majority of coronavirus cases in Australia to date had come from returned travellers, a small number of returned travellers now being taken to hotels for enforced quarantine should be allowed to quarantine in their homes on compassionate grounds.

Finlay said health workers could flag vulnerable people, such as the elderly or severely mentally unwell, with NSW Health for exemption from the enforced 14-day quarantine in city hotels.

“Until today the ministry of health had told me that everyone I’d flagged as vulnerable was given their exemption,” Finlay said on Saturday. “Today I learned this was a lie. It hadn’t actually been done.”

“They’re all still in the hotel rooms. And it’s worse than prison. They have cramped rooms with windows that don’t open, no balcony and are not allowed to leave even for some fresh air and exercise. Some hotels aren’t cleaning the rooms for the two weeks and aren’t offering people products to clean their own bathrooms.”

Finlay said one person had been told they could have a food package delivered by a family member. The family member included a bottle of wine, which the hotel confiscated. He described those in the hotels as “detainees” and said many did not have access to a laundry. One hotel, the Hilton, was charging some $20 to do the washing, he said. This is not covered by the government.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... octor-says
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