fazur wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:28 pm

hunter8 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:29 pmTo the “mortality much higher than seasonal influenza” believers, again: 500 000 people die annually from flu and 1 500 000 die annually from tuberculosis. Someone has to be incredibly math challenged to say mortality from covid is much higher to justify not opening economy back immediately.

ur model and logic assume Covid is over.

it's not. we all know that, except maybe you.

do you undertsand why your model and logic are completely untrustworthy?

You are wrong. My logic does not assume it’s over.
Moreover, it will never be over, just like flu is never over. Unless everyone is imprisoned into a separate cell and fed from the rooftop by martians, it can’t be stopped. It’s a preposterous idea to think it can be stopped as it is, quoting WHO here, “much more infectious than a flu”. Can wind be stopped?

Now, back to math. It’s been spreading like wild fire, and in the course of 4 winter-spring months 200 000 worldwide deaths have been recorded. We can extrapolate that to the rest of the year to get the figure of 600 000. It looks tragically high but it is the same as an annual flu death toll. Even if you double that figure, it’s still less than a tuberculosis death toll. The world got used to those death tolls, the world will get used to this one. Even the most snowflaky part of it will get used to it when they get hungry enough.

Clemen wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:39 pm

WildA wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:29 pm

Clemen wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:17 am

WildA wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:21 am Gee, does that mean that we fucked the world economy for a flu?

No, it means your reading comprehension skills are lacking.
" The data suggest that the state's mortality rate could be lower than previously thought, albeit much higher than for seasonal influenza"

It is also early days for these studies, the ones out of California have basic flaws.
"Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu
Authors of widely publicized antibody studies “owe us all an apology,” one expert says."
Full:https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04 ... -than-flu/

Your politics are showing.

China lied people died.

There is nothing political about my post at all.
Whenever I post a fact that contradicts what you say it's because I'm a "trump hater" or whatever. My politics have nothing to do with it. You don't seem too comfortable with facts when they don't support your convictions.
Shall I just say Trump lied, people died?

Why not? Thats the position of the Democratic Party and their Chinese Hmmmm...Masters?

hunter8 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:11 pm

fazur wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:28 pm

hunter8 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 1:29 pmTo the “mortality much higher than seasonal influenza” believers, again: 500 000 people die annually from flu and 1 500 000 die annually from tuberculosis. Someone I has to be incredibly math challenged to say mortality from covid is much higher to justify not opening economy back immediately.

ur model and logic assume Covid is over.

it's not. we all know that, except maybe you.

do you undertsand why your model and logic are completely untrustworthy?

You are wrong. My logic does not assume it’s over.
Moreover, it will never be over, just like flu is never over. Unless everyone is imprisoned into a separate cell and fed from the rooftop by martians, it can’t be stopped. It’s a preposterous idea to think it can be stopped as it is, quoting WHO here, “much more infectious than a flu”. Can wind be stopped?

Now, back to math. It’s been spreading like wild fire, and in the course of 4 winter-spring months 200 000 worldwide deaths have been recorded. We can extrapolate that to the rest of the year to get the figure of 600 000. It looks tragically high but it is the same as an annual flu death toll. Even if you double that figure, it’s still less than a tuberculosis death toll. The world got used to those death tolls, the world will get used to this one. Even the most snowflaky part of it will get used to it when they get hungry enough.

You can't extrapolate anything. Too much is still unknown about it and the 1st case in each country was not 4 months ago. Add to that the effect of the lockdowns in slowing its spread down. Left without any action, the figures you quote would undoubtedly grow exponetially as has been the case in every country with reasonable medical facilities to test and a free media to report.

To assume that the next 8 months would merely be a replication twice that of the 1st 4 months of a completely new virus is absurd. Don't believe me? Use your logic for the number of deaths in the 1st month, multiply that by 4. Does the answer give you 200,000?

You have also failed to touch on the reports of serious and long lasting damaged to many of the people who do not die.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52425825

What did the WHO say?

"There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection," the WHO said in a briefing note.

Most studies carried out so far showed that people who had recovered from infection had antibodies in their blood - but some of these people had very low levels of antibodies.

This suggested that another part of the body's immune response - T-cells, which eliminate infected cells - may also be "critical" for recovery.

As of Friday no study had evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to the virus conferred immunity to subsequent infection by the virus in humans, the WHO said.

100,000 deaths reported in past 16 days

It took 90 days from the first reported death in Wuhan, China, on 11 January for countries to record more than 100,000 confirmed coronavirus fatalities.

Just 16 days later, that total has passed 200,000.

hunter8 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:11 pmNow, back to math. It’s been spreading like wild fire, and in the course of 4 winter-spring months 200 000 worldwide deaths have been recorded. We can extrapolate that to the rest of the year to get the figure of 600 000.

the math has been wrong before even wrt covid especially in america

there is hardly a day without some guy coming up with new figures

nobody can predict what it will do and people refuse to stay home or even social distance arefools

i prefer not to die from flu tb or covid and i'm listening to specialists not math guys on forums, no offence

Sure we can extrapolate to year end. You can feel free to google this, multiple websites have charts. Apocalyptic prophecies warning of exponential unstoppable deaths have been wrong. The curve is flattening and worldwide deaths are not multiplying day-to-day, they are adding a more or less constant number as the curve is on the plateau where it will stay for a while before going down. Doom and gloomers can deny this all they want but this virus will end up no more deadly than tuberculosis, very likely much closer to mortality of a new strain of flu.

We have all had dengue and the effects are nothing like this virus. My skin cancer surgeon has been in Fiji and quarantined for 14 days after he returned.
But he thinks he and his wife caught the virus on a plane to Sydney or at Sydney Airport. They were both struggling to breath, breathing and coughing were incredibly painful. This lasted a few days. It was early December and we didn’t know about Wuhan then. There were a lot of Chinese still flying then.
We are still locked down in Queensland but next weekend we will be allowed to travel up to 50ks. Schools won’t the open for another 4 weeks. All shops and doctors rooms have big acrylic screens to protect staff dealing with the public. Cairns has 150,000 people and only 11 cases. We get 3 million tourists a year but tourism was fucked weeks before the virus hit. We turned away 8 cruise ships on a week just before ships called at other ports in Australia and NZ.

hunter8 wrote: ↑Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:30 pm Sure we can extrapolate to year end. You can feel free to google this, multiple websites have charts. Apocalyptic prophecies warning of exponential unstoppable deaths have been wrong. The curve is flattening and worldwide deaths are not multiplying day-to-day, they are adding a more or less constant number as the curve is on the plateau where it will stay for a while before going down. Doom and gloomers can deny this all they want but this virus will end up no more deadly than tuberculosis, very likely much closer to mortality of a new strain of flu.

I don't wish to insult you but it appears you struggled with high school maths and also basic reasoning.

You claim that the maths suggest 600,000 deaths a year from this as the curve has flattened. It is because of the social measures in place that this has happened, its not just by chance. Even if you take the figure of 6,000 per day and multiply that by 365 you get over 2 million.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-toll/

You also keep comparing this new virus to flu and tb both of which there are vaccines for which is why the same social measures are not applied for those illnesses.

Our societies have been ill prepared for this and theses drastic measures have been needed to slow it's spread and to protect the most vulnerable. It's true that there are other consequences of these lockdowns and that we can't continue like this until a vaccine is found but to suggest that these measures are pointless really shows a lack of education.