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Kishida: Japan to 'fundamentally' strengthen defense in 5 years
At Shangri-La Dialogue, PM vows $2bn in Indo-Pacific aid for 'new era' of realism


Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivers the keynote speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 10. © Reuters
TSUBASA SURUGA, Nikkei staff writerJune 10, 2022 22:32 JST

SINGAPORE -- Japan will "fundamentally reinforce Japan's defense capabilities within the next five years," Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed in Singapore on Friday, delivering a keynote address to open the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.

Kishida pledged to "secure a substantial increase" in the country's defense budget to back this up, stressing that Japan has adopted a new type of "realism diplomacy for a new era."

His more than 30-minute speech to the forum, where defense ministers and delegates from 42 countries are gathering, came in the shadow of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and as China's rise shifts the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.

Kishida also promised to provide maritime aid to Indo-Pacific countries -- at least $2 billion over the next three years for maritime security equipment, including patrol vessels, and to support maritime transportation infrastructure.

"We will strengthen our support to each country, utilizing cooperation of the Quad and frameworks of international organizations," he said, referring to Japan's loose security partnership with the U.S., Australia and India.

In May, the Japanese leader had told visiting U.S. President Joe Biden in Tokyo that his government would reinforce Japan's defense capabilities and raise its budget. On Friday, Kishida pointed to the Ukraine war as part of the rationale for doing so.

"I myself have a strong sense that Ukraine today may be the East Asia [of] tomorrow," he said.

"I will seek to build a stable international order through dialogue, not confrontation," he promised. "At the same time, however, we must be prepared for the emergence of an entity that tramples on the peace and security of other countries by force or threat without honoring the rules."

The groundwork for a defense buildup was laid on Tuesday, when the Japanese cabinet approved the first annual economic policy road map since Kishida took office last year. The blueprint for next fiscal year's budget said Japan aims to drastically increase its defense outlays over the next five years, without specifying exactly by how much.

The road map did refer to the defense spending commitment made by NATO members -- 2% of gross domestic product. Japan currently spends close to 1% of its GDP.

While Kishida highlighted the Ukraine war, and did not single out China by name, he alluded to longstanding concerns about Beijing's assertive behavior especially in the maritime domain.

On the South China Sea -- where China has overlapping claims with several Southeast Asian countries -- Kishida said that international law and in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, along with arbitration decisions based on that convention, are not being "complied with."

He went on to warn that "unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force in violation of international law are continuing."

He also touched on tensions in the Taiwan Strait, saying that "peace and stability" in the waterway are "of extreme importance." Russia's invasion has raised fears of China one day trying to take Taiwan -- which it regards as a renegade province -- by force.

Just ahead of Kishida's speech, the U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs had a face-to-face meeting in which they exchanged views on Taiwan.


The Japanese destroyer Inazuma is pictured in the Indian Ocean in 2018: Tokyo intends to ramp up defense spending at a time of high regional tension. © Reuters

In 2021, Japan's military spending was estimated at a record $54.1 billion, ranking ninth globally. The total came to less than a fifth of China's $293 billion, which ranked second behind only the U.S., at $801 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. India came in third at $76.6 billion.

Still, the rate of increase in Japanese defense spending was notably high, at 7.3% on the year. The government allocated an additional $7 billion to defense in a supplementary budget, resulting in the highest annual growth rate since 1972.

Despite Kishida's insistence on adding muscle to Japan's forces, he also offered reassurance in his speech.

"I stress that Japan's posture as a peace loving nation will remain unchanged," he said. "Our efforts will proceed within the scope of our constitution and in compliance with international law, in a manner that does not alter the basic roles and missions shared between Japan and U.S. under our alliance."

The U.S. and Japan have traditionally divided their roles in their alliance as that of a "spear" and a "shield." Japan has focused on being the shield, or defending Japanese territory, while leaving all attack roles to the U.S.

Some in Washington have been hoping that Japan might expand its role to that of a spear, however short that spear may be, to strengthen deterrence.

Kishida's point that the "roles" will be unchanged is likely an attempt to ease fears that Japan may be speeding ahead too fast, ahead of the upper house elections next month. But his remarks could be met with disappointment stateside.

There’s this pesky thing called the Japanese constitution. As well as the pacifist attitude of the average Japanese.

Other than those two things, no problem with Kishida turning Japan into a ‘real country’.

Price they paid for Pearl Harbor. But it seems they are a better people and country for it.

That’s the fundamental problem Kishida has. The views of the average Japanese. Hence the tip toe dance for the military.

But for all it’s ‘Self Defense’ status, the Japanese military has the most advanced weapons. AEGIS systems, destroyers approaching cruiser size, and helicopter ships that can convert to small aircraft carriers. And a fleet can operate far from home.

Ever since the time of a Japan that can say no, the country has increased it’s military and foreign relations.

5 years may be too late!

China reacts negatively to anyone not bending the knee to worship their President. The communists view the last century as an aberration to the glories of the Middle Kingdom during their thousands of years history.

Japan and China (and Korea as well) have always had bad blood between them. China tried to invade Japan under the Mongols. Japan tried to take the Chinese throne (marching through Korea) during the warring states. Finally, Japan gained a foothold during the war with Russia and then expanded during World War 2.

Anyways, in order to successfully invade Taiwan, China has to neutralize the response coming out of Okinawa. Either Kishida will either allow bases in Okinawa to be destroyed by China or not.